The Dynamics and Correlates of Religious Service Attendance in Adolescence

This study examines changes in religious service attendance over time for a contemporary cohort of adolescents moving from middle to late adolescence. We use two waves of a nationally representative panel survey of youth from the National Study of Youth and Religion (NSYR) to examine the dynamics of religious involvement during adolescence. We then follow with an analysis of how demographic characteristics, family background, and life course transitions relate to changes in religious service attendance during adolescence. Our findings suggest that, on average, adolescent religious service attendance declines over time, related to major life course transitions such as becoming employed, leaving home, and initiating sexual activity. Parents’ affiliation and attendance, on the other hand, are protective factors against decreasing attendance

Surface temperature lapse rates over complex terrain : lessons from the Cascade Mountains

The typically sparse distribution of weather stations in mountainous terrain inadequately resolves temperature variability. Accordingly, high‐resolution gridding of climate data (for applications such as hydrological modeling) often relies on assumptions such as a constant surface temperature lapse rate (i.e., decrease of surface temperature with altitude) of 6.5°C km⁻¹. Using an example of the Cascade Mountains, we describe the temporal and spatial variability of the surface temperature lapse rate, combining data from: (1) COOP stations, (2) nearby radiosonde launches, (3) a temporary dense network of sensors, (4) forecasts from the MM5 regional model, and (5) PRISM geo‐statistical analyses. On the windward side of the range, the various data sources reveal annual mean lapse rates of 3.9–5.2°C km⁻¹, substantially smaller than the often‐assumed 6.5°C km⁻¹. The data sets show similar seasonal and diurnal variability, with lapse rates smallest (2.5–3.5°C km⁻¹) in late‐summer minimum temperatures, and largest (6.5–7.5°C km⁻¹) in spring maximum temperatures. Geographic (windward versus lee side) differences in lapse rates are found to be substantial. Using a simple runoff model, we show the appreciable implications of these results for hydrological modeling

A unified approach for process-based hydrologic modeling: 1. Modeling concept

This work advances a unified approach to process-based hydrologic modeling to enable controlled and systematic evaluation of multiple model representations (hypotheses) of hydrologic processes and scaling behavior. Our approach, which we term the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA), formulates a general set of conservation equations, providing the flexibility to experiment with different spatial representations, different flux parameterizations, different model parameter values, and different time stepping schemes. In this paper, we introduce the general approach used in SUMMA, detailing the spatial organization and model simplifications, and how different representations of multiple physical processes can be combined within a single modeling framework. We discuss how SUMMA can be used to systematically pursue the method of multiple working hypotheses in hydrology. In particular, we discuss how SUMMA can help tackle major hydrologic modeling challenges, including defining the appropriate complexity of a model, selecting among competing flux parameterizations, representing spatial variability across a hierarchy of scales, identifying potential improvements in computational efficiency and numerical accuracy as part of the numerical solver, and improving understanding of the various sources of model uncertainty.Keywords: unified model, hydrometeorology, scaling behavio

Forest gap effects on snow storage in the transitional climate of the Eastern Cascade Range, Washington, United States

Forest thinning and gap creation are being implemented across the western United States of America (USA) to reduce wildfire and forest mortality risk as the climate warms. The Eastern Cascades in Washington, USA, is in a transitional zone between maritime and continental climate conditions and represents a data gap in observations describing the relationship between forest density and snowpack. We collected 3 years of snow observations across a range of forest densities to characterize how forest management efforts in this region may influence the magnitude and duration of snow storage. Observations indicate that peak snow storage magnitude in small gaps ranges from the same to over twice that observed in unburned forest plots in the Eastern Cascades. However, differences in snow duration are generally small. Across all Eastern Cascade sites and years, we observed a median difference of snow storage lasting 7 days longer in gaps as compared to nearby forest plots. A notable exception to this pattern occurred at one north-facing site, where snow lasted 30 days longer in the gap. These observations of similar snow storage duration in the Eastern Cascades are attributed to minimal differences in canopy snow interception processes between forests and gaps at some sites, and to higher ablation rates that counterbalance the higher snow accumulation in the gaps at other sites. At the north-facing site, more snow accumulated in the gap, and ablation rates in the open gap were similar to the shaded forest due to the aspect of the site. Thus, snow storage duration was much longer in the gap. Together, these data suggest that prescriptions to reduce forest density through thinning and creating gaps may increase the overall amount of snow storage by reducing loss due to sublimation and melting of canopy-intercepted snow. However, reducing forest density in the Eastern Cascades is unlikely to buffer climate-induced shortening of snow storage duration, with the possible exception of gap creation in north-facing forests. Lastly, these observations fill a spatial and climatic data gap and can be used to support hydrological modeling at spatial and temporal scales that are relevant to forest management decisions

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change

A Unified Approach for Process-Based Hydrologic Modeling: 2. Model Implementation and Case Studies

This work advances a unified approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, which we term the “Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA).” The modeling framework, introduced in the companion paper, uses a general set of conservation equations with flexibility in the choice of process parameterizations (closure relationships) and spatial architecture. This second paper specifies the model equations and their spatial approximations, describes the hydrologic and biophysical process parameterizations currently supported within the framework, and illustrates how the framework can be used in conjunction with multivariate observations to identify model improvements and future research and data needs. The case studies illustrate the use of SUMMA to select among competing modeling approaches based on both observed data and theoretical considerations. Specific examples of preferable modeling approaches include the use of physiological methods to estimate stomatal resistance, careful specification of the shape of the within-canopy and below-canopy wind profile, explicitly accounting for dust concentrations within the snowpack, and explicitly representing distributed lateral flow processes. Results also demonstrate that changes in parameter values can make as much or more difference to the model predictions than changes in the process representation. This emphasizes that improvements in model fidelity require a sagacious choice of both process parameterizations and model parameters. In conclusion, we envisage that SUMMA can facilitate ongoing model development efforts, the diagnosis and correction of model structural errors, and improved characterization of model uncertainty

A unified approach for process-based hydrologic modeling: 2. Model implementation and case studies

This work advances a unified approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, which we term the ‘‘Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA).’’ The modeling framework, introduced in the companion paper, uses a general set of conservation equations with flexibility in the choice of process parameterizations (closure relationships) and spatial architecture. This second paper specifies the model equations and their spatial approximations, describes the hydrologic and biophysical process parameterizations currently supported within the framework, and illustrates how the framework can be used in conjunction with multivariate observations to identify model improvements and future research and data needs. The case studies illustrate the use of SUMMA to select among competing modeling approaches based on both observed data and theoretical considerations. Specific examples of preferable modeling approaches include the use of physiological methods to estimate stomatal resistance, careful specification of the shape of the within-canopy and below-canopy wind profile, explicitly accounting for dust concentrations within the snowpack, and explicitly representing distributed lateral flow processes. Results also demonstrate that changes in parameter values can make as much or more difference to the model predictions than changes in the process representation. This emphasizes that improvements in model fidelity require a sagacious choice of both process parameterizations and model parameters. In conclusion, we envisage that SUMMA can facilitate ongoing model development efforts, the diagnosis and correction of model structural errors, and improved characterization of model uncertainty.Keywords: unified model, scaling behavior, hydrometeorologyKeywords: unified model, scaling behavior, hydrometeorolog

Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP): quantification of snow water equivalent uncertainty across North America via ensemble land surface modeling

The Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP) is an effort to establish a baseline characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) uncertainty across North America with the goal of informing global snow observational needs. An ensemble-based modeling approach, encompassing a suite of current operational models is used to assess the uncertainty in SWE and total snow storage (SWS) estimation over North America during the 2009–2017 period. The highest modeled SWE uncertainty is observed in mountainous regions, likely due to the relatively deep snow, forcing uncertainties, and variability between the different models in resolving the snow processes over complex terrain. This highlights a need for high-resolution observations in mountains to capture the high spatial SWE variability. The greatest SWS is found in Tundra regions where, even though the spatiotemporal variability in modeled SWE is low, there is considerable uncertainty in the SWS estimates due to the large areal extent over which those estimates are spread. This highlights the need for high accuracy in snow estimations across the Tundra. In midlatitude boreal forests, large uncertainties in both SWE and SWS indicate that vegetation–snow impacts are a critical area where focused improvements to modeled snow estimation efforts need to be made. Finally, the SEUP results indicate that SWE uncertainty is driving runoff uncertainty, and measurements may be beneficial in reducing uncertainty in SWE and runoff, during the melt season at high latitudes (e.g., Tundra and Taiga regions) and in the western mountain regions, whereas observations at (or near) peak SWE accumulation are more helpful over the midlatitudes

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

Author Correction:Study of 300,486 individuals identifies 148 independent genetic loci influencing general cognitive function

Christina M. Lill, who contributed to analysis of data, was inadvertently omitted from the author list in the originally published version of this article. This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the article