Did the Bundesbank Follow a Taylor Rule? An Analysis Based on Real-Time Data

Using a real-time data set for German GDP over the period from 1973 to 1998 we calculate various measures of real-time output gaps and use these to calibrate and estimate Taylor-type reaction functions for the Bundesbank. Most of the reaction functions we find fit the Bundesbank´s actual policy, as represented by the short-run interest rate, quite well. In contrast to previous findings based on ex post revised data for the output gap, we find the reaction coefficients to resemble quite closely those originally proposed by Taylor for some of our real-time measures of the output gap. Broad monetary aggregates such as M3, in contrast, only played a small role for the Bundesbank´s interest rate decisions. Given the good record of the Bundesbank in fighting inflation, the results give support for the use of the Taylor rule for monetary policy.German real-time data; output gap; monetary policy rules

COMPARATIVE FAST PYROLYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL RESIDUES FOR USE IN BIOREFINERIES

In the light of depleting fossil resources, biomass is gaining renewed interest as a source of renewable carbon, which can be used for energy and chemicals. The production of biofuels such as ethanol, palm oil and bio-diesel has come under criticism for its likely competition with food. These production systems need either huge areas of monocultures or use some parts of plant material such as the carbohydrate fraction only for fermentation to produce ethanol. Other technologies such as fast pyrolysis offer the advantage of using whole plant material for the production of so called \u27bio-oils\u27, which adheres to the condensates of the pyrolysis process. Bio-oils are complex mixture of various molecules with different polarities. Their content of monomers, oligomers and water depend not only on the pyrolysis conditions but also on the characteristics of the feedstock. In order to broaden the palette of feedstocks to be considered, 12 agricultural waste types from annual plants were comparatively pyrolyzed in a laboratory fluidized-bed reactor against white wood from beech wood. Agricultural wastes such as wheat straw, wheat grains, whole corn plants (cobs, stems, leaves) were used untreated, whereas corn, rape, barley, oat, sorghum, whole plant silage, and winter peas were used after silage. Moreover, press cakes from hemp seeds and flax seeds were also investigated. Pyrolysis temperature was kept constant at 475 °C. The residence time was varied and set to 1 or 2 s. Organic yields were highest with beech wood (55 wt.%) and lowest with flax seeds (13 wt.%). Detailed quantitative GC/MS analyses of the bio-oils were carried out. In total, 44 components were used for the comparison of the feedstocks. The components were grouped into distinct chemical categories such as organic acids, aldehydes, aromatics, furans, guaiacols, ketones, phenols, pyrans, anhydrosugars, and syringols. Interestingly, sorghum silage gave similar bio-oil composition compared to beech wood. Corn silage gave superior results in comparison to whole plant material. Other properties of the bio-oils such as pH and elemental composition were also determined

Did the Bundesbank follow a Taylor rule? An analysis based on real-time data

Using a real-time data set for German GDP over the period from 1973 to 1998 we calculate various measures of real-time output gaps and use these to calibrate and estimate Taylor-type reaction functions for the Bundesbank. Most of the reaction functions we find fit the Bundesbank's actual policy, as represented by the short-run interest rate, quite well. In contrast to previous findings based on ex post revised data for the output gap, we find the reaction coefficients to resemble quite closely those originally proposed by Taylor for some of our realtime measures of the output gap. Broad monetary aggregates such as M3, in contrast, only played a small role for the Bundesbank's interest rate decisions. Given the good record of the Bundesbank in fighting inflation, the results give support to the use of the Taylor rule for monetary policy

Synthesis and complex self-assembly of amphiphilic block copolymers with a branched hydrophobic poly(2-oxazoline) into multicompartment micelles, pseudo-vesicles and yolk/shell nanoparticles

We report on the synthesis and self-assembly of poly(ethylene oxide)-block-poly(2-(3-ethylheptyl)-2-oxazoline) (PEO-b-PEHOx), a new amphiphilic diblock copolymer obtainedviamicrowave-assistedpolymerization of EHOx using a new nosylated PEO macroinitiator. The kinetics of the polymerization indifferent solvents was crucial to optimize the synthesis and revealed a controlled, yet fast polymerizationof the AB diblock copolymer. Differential scanning calorimetry proved that PEO-b-PEHOx shows glasstransition temperatures below room temperature, making it suitable for a wide range of self-assemblymethods, especially under mild and solvent-free conditions. Self-assembly of PEO-b-PEHOx was thenperformed usingfilm rehydration and solvent switch. In both cases, we were able to show the formationof various complex structures (multi-compartment micelles (MCMs), pseudo-vesicles and yolk/shellnanoparticles) by light scattering, TEM and Cryo-TEM. Our results show that PEO-b-PEHOx is a potentnew AB diblock copolymer due to its fast synthesis and unique self-assembly behavior

Did the Bundesbank follow a Taylor rule? An analysis based on real-time data

Using a real-time data set for German GDP over the period from 1973 to 1998 we calculate various measures of real-time output gaps and use these to calibrate and estimate Taylor-type reaction functions for the Bundesbank. Most of the reaction functions we find fit the Bundesbank's actual policy, as represented by the short-run interest rate, quite well. In contrast to previous findings based on ex post revised data for the output gap, we find the reaction coefficients to resemble quite closely those originally proposed by Taylor for some of our realtime measures of the output gap. Broad monetary aggregates such as M3, in contrast, only played a small role for the Bundesbank's interest rate decisions. Given the good record of the Bundesbank in fighting inflation, the results give support to the use of the Taylor rule for monetary policy

Decentralized Finance: A Configurational Perspective on UTAUT

Blockchain-based decentralized finance (DeFi) enables financial transactions without intermediaries. Among its most diffused applications is DeFi borrowing, which allows users to borrow money from other users. DeFi borrowing relies on sufficient users requesting money, making it essential for blockchain technology platform providers to understand why users intend to use DeFi borrowing. To explain this, we turn to the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT). Given that existing studies differ in how the beliefs of UTAUT influence use intention, we explain previous findings by suggesting that multiple beliefs together, so-called configurations, lead to high and low use intention. Following a configurational approach on potential users of DeFi borrowing, we reveal three configurations resulting in high use intention and two configurations resulting in low use intention. We contribute by explaining DeFi borrowing use intention and resolving previous differing findings on UTAUT by taking a configurational perspective

Structured patient information management for efficient treatment and healthcare quality assurance in oncology

Die Behandlung von Patienten mit Tumoren im Kopf-Hals-Bereich gestaltet sich als komplexer und herausfordernder Prozess sowohl für den Patienten als auch für die behandelnden Ärzte und Chirurgen. Zur Gewährleistung der bestmöglichen individuellen Therapie werden vor Beginn der Behandlung zahlreiche diagnostische Verfahren durchgeführt. Hierzu zählen unter anderem medizinische bildgebende Verfahren wie z.B. Computertomographie (CT) oder Magnetresonanztomographie (MRT) sowie die Entnahme von tumorverdächtigem Gewebe während einer Panendoskopie zur exakten Bestimmung der Tumorart (Histologie, Grading, TNM-Klassifikation nach UICC, genaue Lokalisation des Primärtumors, der lokoregionären Metastasen und ggf. Fernmetastasen). Die gewonnenen Informationen bilden anschließend die Grundlage für die Entscheidung über die durchzuführende Therapie und stehen in unterschiedlichen klinischen Informationssystemen sowie auf Papierakten zur Verfügung. Leider werden die Daten im klinischen Alltag häufig nur unstrukturiert und schwer auffindbar präsentiert, da die führenden Informationssysteme nur unzureichend in den klinischen Arbeitsprozess integriert und untereinander schlecht vernetzt sind. Die präzise und erschöpfende Darstellung der jeweiligen individuellen Situation und die darauf aufbauende Therapieentscheidung sind aber entscheidend für die Prognose des Patienten, da der erste, gut geplante \"Schuss\" entscheidend für den weiteren Verlauf ist und nicht mehr korrigiert werden kann. In dieser Arbeit werden neue Konzepte zur Verbesserung des Informationsmanagements im Bereich der Kopf-Hals-Tumorbehandlung entwickelt, als prototypische Software implementiert und im klinischen Alltag in verschiedenen Studien wissenschaftlich evaluiert. Die Erlangung eines tiefgreifenden Verständnisses über die klinischen Abläufe sowie über beteiligte Informationssysteme und Datenflüsse stellte den ersten Teil der Arbeit dar. Aufbauend auf den Erkenntnissen wurde ein klinisches Informationssystem oncoflow entwickelt. Oncoflow importiert vollautomatisch relevante Patientendaten von verschiedenen klinischen Informationssystemen, restrukturiert die Daten und unterstützt Ärzte und Chirurgen im gesamten Therapieprozess. Das System wurde anschließend in unterschiedlichen Studien evaluiert und der klinische Nutzen in Bezug auf effizientere Arbeitsabläufe und eine verbesserte Informationsqualität gezeigt. Im folgenden Teil der Arbeit wurden Machine Learning Methoden genutzt um von Daten in der elektronischen Patientenakte auf den aktuellen Prozessschritt im Therapieprozess zu schließen. Der letzte Teil der Arbeit zeigt Möglichkeiten zur Erweiterung des Systems zur Nutzung in weiteren klinischen Fachdisziplinen auf

The ugly and the bad: banking and housing crises strangle output permanently, ordinary recessions do not

This paper provides statistical evidence suggesting that in industrial countries, recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises dampen output far more than ordinary recessions. Using a parametric panel framework that allows for a bounceback of the level of output in the course of the cyclical recovery, we find that ordinary recessions are followed by strong recoveries that make up for almost all the preceding shortfall in output. This bounceback tends to be significantly smaller following recessions associated with banking crises or housing crises. Our paper corroborates the practice of focusing exclusively on severe crises used in an emerging macroeconomic literature and integrates it with the earlier literature on recessions and recoveries

Esports: Explaining Willingness to Pay for Streaming Services

Online multiplayer computer game competitions—so-called esports—attract millions of spectators around the world and show spectator numbers comparable to the Super Bowl. Despite that, game publishers, which often organize these large-scale competitions, still struggle to establish esports as a profitable business venture. One way they can do so involves how they position fee-based streaming services for watching esports online. To draw spectators to their streaming services, esports organizers need to focus on attracting spectators with a high willingness to pay (WTP), and the streaming services need to satisfy spectators’ motivations. Grounded in uses and gratifications theory and a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis, our results show that four different configurations of motivations relate to WTP for esports streaming services. We contribute by showing that 1) motivations form WTP in the esports context, 2) multiple interacting motivations explain WTP, and 3) spectators follow different rationales for their high WTP