Maintaining credibility when communicating uncertainty: The role of communication format

Research into risk communication has commonly highlighted the disparity between the meaning intended by the communicator and what is understood by the recipient. Such miscommunications will have implications for perceived trust and expertise of the communicator, but it is not known whether this differs according to the communication format. We examined the effect of using verbal, numerical and mixed communication formats on perceptions of credibility and correctness, as well as whether they influenced a decision to evacuate, both before and after an ‘erroneous’ prediction (i.e. an ‘unlikely’ event occurs, or a ‘likely’ event does not occur). We observed no effect of communication format on any of the measures pre-outcome, but found the numerical format was perceived as less incorrect, as well as more credible than the other formats after an ‘erroneous’ prediction, but only when low probability expressions were used. Our findings suggest numbers should be used in consequential risk communications

'Unlikely' outcomes might never occur, but what about 'unlikely (20% chance)' outcomes?

A commonly suggested solution to reduce misinterpretations of verbal probability expressions in risk communications is to use a verbal-numerical (mixed format) approach, but it is not known whether this increases understanding over and above a purely numerical format. Using the ‘which outcome’ methodology (Teigen & Filkuková, 2013), we examined the effect of using verbal, numerical and mixed communication formats, as well as investigating whether marking outcomes as salient would alter the outcomes people perceived as ‘unlikely’ or having a 20% chance of occurring. We observed no effect of saliency, but replicated previous findings, with general preference for values at the high end of a distribution (including maximum/above maximum values) present in both verbal and mixed communication formats. This demonstrates the relevance of these findings for real-world consequential risk communication. Whilst the estimates differed between the mixed and numerical formats, we fo

Increases in salience of ethnic identity at work: the roles of ethnic assignation and ethnic identification

To better understand how ethnicity is actually experienced within organisations, we examined reported increases in ethnic identity salience at work and responses to such increases. Thirty British black Caribbean graduate employees were interviewed about how and when they experienced their ethnic identity at work. The findings demonstrated that increased salience in ethnic identity was experienced in two key ways: through ‘ethnic assignation’ (a ‘push’ towards ethnic identity) and ‘ethnic identification’ (a ‘pull’ towards ethnic identity). We explore how and when ethnic assignation and ethnic identification occur at work, and their relevance to how workplaces are experienced by this group of minority ethnic employees. The findings suggest the need for further research attention to the dynamic and episodic nature of social identity, including ethnic identity, within organisations, and to the impact of such increases in salience of social identities on behaviour at work

Eliciting a predatory response in the eastern corn snake (Pantherophis guttatus) using live and inanimate sensory stimuli: implications for managing invasive populations

North America's Eastern corn snake (Pantherophis guttatus) has been introduced to several islands throughout the Caribbean and Australasia where it poses a significant threat to native wildlife. Invasive snake control programs often involve trapping with live bait, a practice that, as well as being costly and labour intensive, raises welfare and ethical concerns. This study assessed corn snake response to live and inanimate sensory stimuli in an attempt to inform possible future trapping of the species and the development of alternative trap lures. We exposed nine individuals to sensory cues in the form of odour, visual, vibration and combined stimuli and measured the response (rate of tongue-flick [RTF]). RTF was significantly higher in odour and combined cues treatments, and there was no significant difference in RTF between live and inanimate cues during odour treatments. Our findings suggest chemical cues are of primary importance in initiating predation and that an inanimate odour stimulus, absent of simultaneous visual and vibratory cues, is a potential low-cost alternative trap lure for the control of invasive corn snake populations

Understanding ‘Unlikely (20% Likelihood)’ or ‘20% Likelihood (Unlikely)’ Outcomes: The Robustness of the Extremity Effect

Calls to communicate uncertainty using mixed, verbal‐numerical formats (‘unlikely [0–33%]’) have stemmed from research comparing mixed with solely verbal communications. Research using the new ‘which outcome’ approach to investigate understanding of verbal probability expressions suggests, however, that mixed formats might convey disadvantages compared with purely numerical communications. When asked to indicate an outcome that is ‘unlikely’, participants have been shown to often indicate outcomes with a value exceeding the maximum value shown, equivalent to a 0% probability —an ‘extremity effect’. Recognising the potential consequences of communication recipients expecting an ‘unlikely’ event to never occur, we extend the ‘which outcome’ work across four experiments, using verbal, numerical, and verbal‐numerical communication formats, as well as a previously unconsidered numerical‐verbal format. We examine how robust the effect is in the context of consequential outcomes and over non‐normal distributions. We also investigate whether participants are aware of the inconsistency in their responses from a traditional ‘how likely’ and ‘which outcome’ task. We replicate and extend previous findings, with preference for extreme outcomes (including above maximum values) observed in both verbal and verbal‐numerical formats. Our results suggest caution in blanket usage of recently recommended verbal‐numerical formats for the communication of uncertainty

Sprint interval and sprint continuous training increases circulating CD34+ cells and cardio-respiratory fitness in young healthy women

The improvement of vascular health in the exercising limb can be attained by sprint interval training (SIT). However, the effects on systemic vascular function and on circulating angiogenic cells (CACs) which may contribute to endothelial repair have not been investigated. Additionally, a comparison between SIT and sprint continuous training (SCT) which is less time committing has not been made

The Universal One-Loop Effective Action

We present the universal one-loop effective action for all operators of dimension up to six obtained by integrating out massive, non-degenerate multiplets. Our general expression may be applied to loops of heavy fermions or bosons, and has been checked against partial results available in the literature. The broad applicability of this approach simplifies one-loop matching from an ultraviolet model to a lower-energy effective field theory (EFT), a procedure which is now reduced to the evaluation of a combination of matrices in our universal expression, without any loop integrals to evaluate. We illustrate the relationship of our results to the Standard Model (SM) EFT, using as an example the supersymmetric stop and sbottom squark Lagrangian and extracting from our universal expression the Wilson coefficients of dimension-six operators composed of SM fields.Comment: 30 pages, v2 contains additional comments and corrects typos, version accepted for publication in JHE

Anti-Allergic Cromones Inhibit Histamine and Eicosanoid Release from Activated Human and Murine Mast Cells by Releasing Annexin A1

PMCID: PMC3601088This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Effect of maternal Schistosoma mansoni infection and praziquantel treatment during pregnancy on Schistosoma mansoni infection and immune responsiveness among offspring at age five years.

INTRODUCTION: Offspring of Schistosoma mansoni-infected women in schistosomiasis-endemic areas may be sensitised in-utero. This may influence their immune responsiveness to schistosome infection and schistosomiasis-associated morbidity. Effects of praziquantel treatment of S. mansoni during pregnancy on risk of S. mansoni infection among offspring, and on their immune responsiveness when they become exposed to S. mansoni, are unknown. Here we examined effects of praziquantel treatment of S. mansoni during pregnancy on prevalence of S. mansoni and immune responsiveness among offspring at age five years. METHODS: In a trial in Uganda (ISRCTN32849447, http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN32849447/elliott), offspring of women treated with praziquantel or placebo during pregnancy were examined for S. mansoni infection and for cytokine and antibody responses to SWA and SEA, as well as for T cell expression of FoxP3, at age five years. RESULTS: Of the 1343 children examined, 32 (2.4%) had S. mansoni infection at age five years based on a single stool sample. Infection prevalence did not differ between children of treated or untreated mothers. Cytokine (IFNγ, IL-5, IL-10 and IL-13) and antibody (IgG1, Ig4 and IgE) responses to SWA and SEA, and FoxP3 expression, were higher among infected than uninfected children. Praziquantel treatment of S. mansoni during pregnancy had no effect on immune responses, with the exception of IL-10 responses to SWA, which was higher in offspring of women that received praziquantel during pregnancy than those who did not. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that maternal S. mansoni infection and its treatment during pregnancy influence prevalence and intensity of S. mansoni infection or effector immune response to S. mansoni infection among offspring at age five years, but the observed effects on IL-10 responses to SWA suggest that maternal S. mansoni and its treatment during pregnancy may affect immunoregulatory responsiveness in childhood schistosomiasis. This might have implications for pathogenesis of the disease

Real-Life Anti-Tumour Necrosis Factor Experience in > 500 Paediatric United Kingdom Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients.

OBJECTIVES: To measure the effectiveness, safety and use of anti-Tumour necrosis Factor (TNF) therapy in paediatric inflammatory bowel disease (PIBD) in the United Kingdom (UK). METHODS: Prospective UK audit of patients newly starting anti-TNF therapy. Disease severity was assessed using Physician Global Assessment (PGA) +/or the Paediatric Crohn's Disease Activity Index (PCDAI). RESULTS: 37 centres participated (23 of 25 specialist PIBD sites). 524 patients were included; 429 Crohn's disease (CD), 76 ulcerative colitis (UC), 19 IBD unclassified (IBDU). 87% (488/562) anti-TNF was infliximab; commonest indication was active luminal CD 77% (330/429) or chronic refractory UC/IBDU 56% (53/95); 79% (445/562) had concomitant co-immunosuppression. In CD (267/429 male), median time from diagnosis to treatment was 1.42 years (IQR 0.63-2.97). Disease (at initiation) was moderate or severe in 91% (156/171) by PGA compared to 41% (88/217) by PCDAI; Kappa (Κ) 0.28 = only 'fair agreement' (p < 0.001).Where documented, 77% (53/69) of CD patients responded to induction; and 65% (46/71) entered remission. 2287 infusions and 301.96 years of patient follow-up (n = 385) are represented; adverse events affected 3% (49/1587) infliximab and 2% (2/98) adalimumab infusions (no deaths or malignancies). Perianal abscess drainage was less common after anti-TNF initiation (CD): 26% (27/102) before, 7% (3/42) after (p = 0.01); however pre and post anti-TNF data collection was not over equal time periods. CONCLUSION: Anti-TNFs are effective treatments, usually given with thiopurine co-immunosuppression. This study highlights deficiencies in formal documentation of effect and disparity between disease severity scoring tools which need to be addressed to improve ongoing patient care