Astrometry with the ATF

A detailed study of the effects of gravitational radiation on the relative positions of objects was carried out with the hope that astrometric detection of gravitational radiation might be possible. The results are discouraging. It would appear that narrow-field instruments in the Astrometric Telescope Facility (ATF) class are still several orders of magnitude less accurate than would be required for this very delicate kind of measurement. However, the situation changes considerably when wide-field instruments are considered. An instrument such as POINTS ought to be able to detect gravitational radiation at this level with ease. The list of bright quasars has been augmented. Of particular interest is the finding of quasars near two open clusters and one planetary nebula. These would be useful in determining absolute parallaxes of these objects

Bayesian Nonparametric Shrinkage Applied to Cepheid Star Oscillations

Bayesian nonparametric regression with dependent wavelets has dual shrinkage properties: there is shrinkage through a dependent prior put on functional differences, and shrinkage through the setting of most of the wavelet coefficients to zero through Bayesian variable selection methods. The methodology can deal with unequally spaced data and is efficient because of the existence of fast moves in model space for the MCMC computation. The methodology is illustrated on the problem of modeling the oscillations of Cepheid variable stars; these are a class of pulsating variable stars with the useful property that their periods of variability are strongly correlated with their absolute luminosity. Once this relationship has been calibrated, knowledge of the period gives knowledge of the luminosity. This makes these stars useful as "standard candles" for estimating distances in the universe.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-STS384 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Hubble Space Telescope GTO program

The topics covered include the following: meetings and travel; calibration; GTO Program (Texas); software; subcontractors; and the mini-symposium

Infrared Surface Brightness Distances to Cepheids: a comparison of Bayesian and linear-bisector calculations

We have compared the results of Bayesian statistical calculations and linear-bisector calculations for obtaining Cepheid distances and radii by the infrared surface brightness method. We analyzed a set of 38 Cepheids using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method that had been recently studied with a linear-bisector method. The distances obtained by the two techniques agree to 1.5 \pm 0.6% with the Bayesian distances being larger. The radii agree to 1.1% \pm 0.7% with the Bayesian determinations again being larger. We interpret this result as demonstrating that the two methods yield the same distances and radii. This implies that the short distance to the LMC found in recent linear-bisector studies of Cepheids is not caused by deficiencies in the mathematical treatment. However, the computed uncertainties in distance and radius for our dataset are larger in the Bayesian calculation by factors of 1.4-6.7. We give reasons to favor the Bayesian computations of the uncertainties. The larger uncertainties can have a significant impact upon interpretation of Cepheid distances and radii obtained from the infrared surface brightness method.Comment: 27 pages with 9 figure

An m sin i = 24 Earth Mass Planetary Companion To The Nearby M Dwarf GJ 176

We report the detection of a planetary companion with a minimum mass of m sin i = 0.0771 M_Jup = 24.5 M_Earth to the nearby (d = 9.4 pc) M2.5V star GJ 176. The star was observed as part of our M dwarf planet search at the Hobby-Eberly Telescope (HET). The detection is based on 5 years of high-precision differential radial velocity (RV) measurements using the High-Resolution-Spectrograph (HRS). The orbital period of the planet is 10.24 d. GJ 176 thus joins the small (but increasing) sample of M dwarfs hosting short-periodic planets with minimum masses in the Neptune-mass range. Low mass planets could be relatively common around M dwarfs and the current detections might represent the tip of a rocky planet population.Comment: 13 pages preprint, 3 figures, submitted to Ap

Statistical analysis of stellar evolution

Color-Magnitude Diagrams (CMDs) are plots that compare the magnitudes (luminosities) of stars in different wavelengths of light (colors). High nonlinear correlations among the mass, color, and surface temperature of newly formed stars induce a long narrow curved point cloud in a CMD known as the main sequence. Aging stars form new CMD groups of red giants and white dwarfs. The physical processes that govern this evolution can be described with mathematical models and explored using complex computer models. These calculations are designed to predict the plotted magnitudes as a function of parameters of scientific interest, such as stellar age, mass, and metallicity. Here, we describe how we use the computer models as a component of a complex likelihood function in a Bayesian analysis that requires sophisticated computing, corrects for contamination of the data by field stars, accounts for complications caused by unresolved binary-star systems, and aims to compare competing physics-based computer models of stellar evolution.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS219 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Determination Of The Orbit Of The Planetary Companion To The Metal Rich Star HD 45350

We present the precise radial velocity (RV) data for the metal-rich star HD 45350 collected with the Harlan J. Smith (HJS) 2.7 m telescope and the Hobby-Eberly Telescope (HET) at McDonald Observatory. This star was noticed by us as a candidate for having a giant planetary companion in a highly eccentric orbit, but the lack of data close to periastron left the amplitude and thus mass of the planet poorly constrained. Marcy et al. (2005) announced the presence of the planet based on their Keck/HIRES data, but those authors also cautioned that the remaining uncertainties in the orbital solution might be large due to insufficient data near periastron passage. In order to close this phase gap we exploited the flexible queue scheduled observing mode of the HET to obtain intensive coverage of the most recent periastron passage of the planet. In combination with the long term data from the HJS 2.7 m telescope we determine a Keplerian orbital solution for this system with a period of 962 days, an eccentricity of e=0.76 and a velocity semi-amplitude K of 57.4 m/s. The planet has a minimum mass of m sin i = 1.82 +- 0.14 M_Jup and an orbital semi-major axis of a = 1.92 +-0.07 AU.Comment: 9 pages preprint, 4 figures, accepted in A

A Bayesian Analysis of the Ages of Four Open Clusters

In this paper we apply a Bayesian technique to determine the best fit of stellar evolution models to find the main sequence turn off age and other cluster parameters of four intermediate-age open clusters: NGC 2360, NGC 2477, NGC 2660, and NGC 3960. Our algorithm utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to fit these various parameters, objectively finding the best-fit isochrone for each cluster. The result is a high-precision isochrone fit. We compare these results with the those of traditional “by-eye” isochrone fitting methods. By applying this Bayesian technique to NGC 2360, NGC 2477, NGC 2660, and NGC 3960, we determine the ages of these clusters to be 1.35 ± 0.05, 1.02 ± 0.02, 1.64 ± 0.04, and 0.860 ± 0.04 Gyr, respectively. The results of this paper continue our effort to determine cluster ages to higher precision than that offered by these traditional methods of isochrone fitting