Instability in U.S. inflation: 1967-2005

Maintaining stables prices and keeping inflation in check have become key policy objectives of the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Evidence indicates that inflation has become less persistent and volatile since the early 1980s. Although economists have examined the implications for inflation modeling and forecasting, little information exists about whether changes or instabilities in inflation dynamics coincide with specific economic events such as oil price shocks or recessions. ; This article studies U.S. monthly inflation, inflation growth, and price level dynamics from January 1967 to September 2005. The author employs four price level measures—two versions of the monthly consumer price index and two versions of the monthly personal consumption expenditure deflator—with the goal of identifying possible instabilities in these dynamics. ; Autoregressive, moving average, and unobserved components models provide estimates on various aspects of inflation and price levels. Two rolling samples spanning the 1967–2005 period are constructed to uncover evidence about possible instability in mean inflation and the persistence and volatility of inflation and inflation growth. ; One way to summarize the empirical results is that this instability coincides with different economic events such as the oil price shocks of the 1970s or the end of the 1990–91 recession. An unresolved question is whether such changes are one-time events or can be expected to be repeated systematically in the future.Inflation (Finance)

Business cycle implications of internal consumption habit for New Keynesian models

This paper studies the implications of internal consumption habit for propagation and monetary transmission in New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NKDSGE) models. We use Bayesian methods to evaluate the role of internal consumption habit in NKDSGE model propagation and monetary transmission. Simulation experiments show that internal consumption habit often improves NKDSGE model fit to output and consumption growth spectra by dampening business cycle periodicity. Nonetheless, habit NKDSGE model fit is vulnerable to nominal rigidity, the choice of monetary policy rule, the frequencies used for evaluation, and spectra identified by permanent productivity shocks.

Business Cycle Implications of Internal Consumption Habit for New Keynesian Model

This paper studies the implications of internal consumption habit for propagation and monetary transmission in new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NKDSGE) models. Bayesian methods are employed to evaluate the role of internal consumption habit in NKDSGE model propagation and monetary transmission. Simulation experiments show that internal consumption habit often improves NKDSGE model fit to output and consumption growth spectra by dampening business cycle periodicity. Nonetheless, habit NKDSGE model fit is vulnerable to the nominal rigidity, to the choice of monetary policy rule, to the frequencies used for evaluation, and to spectra identified by permanent productivity shocks.

"Business Cycle Implications of Internal Consumption Habit for New Keynesian Models"

This paper studies the implications of internal consumption habit for new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NKDSGE) models. Bayesian Monte Carlo methods are employed to evaluate NKDSGE model fit. Simulation experiments show that consumption habit often improves the ability of NKDSGE models to match output and consumption growth spectra. Nonetheless, the fit of NKDSGE models with consumption habit is susceptible to the source of the nominal rigidity, to spectra identified by permanent productivity shocks, to the frequencies used for evaluation, and to the choice of monetary policy rule. These vulnerabilities suggest that NKDSGE model specification is fragile.

Business Cycle Implications of Habit Formation

The inability of a wide array of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models to generate fluctuations that resemble actual business cycles has lead to the use of habit formation in consumption. For example, habit formation has been shown to help explain the negative response of labour input to a positive, permanent technology shock, several asset pricing puzzles, and the impact of monetary shocks on real variables. Investigating four different DSGE models with the Bayesian calibration approach, this paper observes that, especially in a new Keynesian monetary business cycle model with both staggered price and wage, habit formation fails to mimic the shape of output growth in the frequency domain: it counterfactually emphasizes low frequency fluctuations in output growth, compared to the U.S. data. On the other hand, habit formation has no clear implications on other business cycle aspects including impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions of output to permanent and transitory shocks. These observations cast doubt on habit formation as an important ingredient of the DSGE model with a rich set of internal propagation mechanisms.Business Cycle; Habit Formation; Frequency Domain; Bayesian Calibration

Along the New Keynesian Phillips curve with nominal and real rigidities

The new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) has become central to monetary theory and policy. A seemingly benign NKPC prediction is that trend shocks dominate price level fluctuations at all forecast horizons. Since the NKPC cycle of the U.S. GDP deflator peaks at each of the last seven NBER dated recessions, support for the NKPC is limited. The authors develop monetary business cycle models that contain different combinations of nominal (sticky-price) and real (labor market search) rigidities to understand this puzzle. Simulations indicate that a model combining labor market search and flexible prices is better able to match actual price level movements than sticky-price models do. This model represents a challenge to claims that sticky prices are a key part of the monetary transmission mechanism.

Great moderations and U.S. interest rates: unconditional evidence

The Great Moderation refers to the fall in U.S. output growth volatility in the mid-1980s. At the same time, the United States experienced a moderation in inflation and lower average inflation. Using annual data since 1890, we find that an earlier, 1946 moderation in output and consumption growth was comparable to that of 1984. Using quarterly data since 1947, we also isolate the 1969–83 Great Inflation to refine the asset pricing implications of the moderations. Asset pricing theory predicts that moderations—real or nominal—influence interest rates. We examine the quantitative predictions of a consumption-based asset pricing model for shifts in the unconditional average of U.S. interest rates. A central finding is that such shifts probably were related to changes in average inflation rather than to moderations in inflation and consumption growth.Interest rates ; Inflation (Finance)

The New Keynesian Phillips curve : lessons from single-equation econometric estimation

We review single-equation methods for estimating the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and then apply those methods to U.S. quarterly data for 1955?2007. Estimating the hybrid NKPC by the generalized method of moments yields stable coefficients with a large role for expected future inflation. Measures of marginal costs better explain U.S. inflation than does a range of measures of the output gap. But estimates of the slope of the NKPC are imprecise and confidence intervals that are robust to weak identification are wide. Further research on measuring marginal costs may reconcile these mixed findings. A reconciliation is important if the NKPC is to remain a fundamental component of models of the monetary transmission mechanism.Inflation (Finance) ; Phillips curve

U.K. World War I and interwar data for business cycle and growth analysis

This article contributes new time series for studying the U.K. economy during World War I and the interwar period. The time series are per capita hours worked and average tax rates of capital income, labor income, and consumption. Uninterrupted time series of these variables are provided for an annual sample that runs from 1913 to 1938. We highlight the usefulness of these time series with several empirical applications. We use per capita hours worked in a growth accounting exercise to measure the contributions of capital, labor, and productivity to output growth. The average tax rates are employed in a Bayesian model averaging experiment to reevaluate the Benjamin and Kochin (1979) regression.

The McKenna rule and U.K. World War I finance

The United Kingdom employed the McKenna rule to conduct fiscal policy during World War I (WWI) and the interwar period. Named for Reginald McKenna, Chancellor of the Exchequer (1915–16), the McKenna rule committed the United Kingdom to a path of debt retirement, which we show was forward-looking and smoothed in response to shocks to the real economy and tax rates. The McKenna rule was in the tradition of the “English method” of war finance because the United Kingdom taxed capital to finance WWI. Higher rates of capital taxation also paid for debt retirement during and subsequent to WWI. The United Kingdom was motivated to implement the McKenna rule because of a desire to achieve a balance between fairness and equity. However, the McKenna rule adversely affected the real economy, according to a permanent income model. WWI and interwar U.K. data support the prediction that real activity is lower in response to higher past debt retirement rates.