Assessing Strategic Risk

In recent decades, the concept of subjective probability has been increasingly applied to an adversary’s choices in strategic games. A careful examination reveals that the standard construction of subjective probabilities does not apply in this context. We show how the difficulty may be overcome by means of a different construction, and provide an axiomatic fondation for it.

When All is Said and Done, How Should You Play and What Should You Expect ?

Modern game theory was born in 1928, when John von Neumann published his Minimax Theorem. This theorem ascribes to all two-person zero-sum games a value - what rational players may expect - and optimal strategies - how they should play to achieve that expectation. Seventy-seven years later, strategic game theory has not gotten beyond that initial point, insofar as the basic questions of value and optimal strategies are concerned. Equilibrium theories do not tell players how to play and what to expect; even when there is a unique Nash equilibrium, it is not at all clear that the players “should” play this equilibrium, nor that they should expect its payoff. Here, we return to square one : abandon all ideas of equilibrium and simply ask, how should rational players play, and what should they expect. We provide answers to both questions, for all n-persons games in strategic form.

Site tests for CLEAR by solar scintillometry

We briefly describe the ng ing site survey for the NSO CLEAR project which aims to put a large-aperture solar telescope at a superior location.The initial results indicate that lake sites are far better than mountain sites,at least in the US

Regulatory T-cells in chronic graft-versus-host disease following extracorporeal photopheresis: correlation with skin and global organ responses, and ability to taper steroids

Background: Induction of immune tolerance by an increase in regulatory T (Treg) cells after extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) is thought to contribute to how ECP exerts its therapeutic effect in patients with chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD). We investigated whether percentages and absolute counts of Treg cells changed post-ECP, and examined correlation with response. Methods: Absolute counts and % of CD4+ T cells and Treg cells (CD4 + CD25 + FOXP3 + CD127dim/-) were evaluated using flow cytometry in 32 patients with cGvHD treated by ECP for a minimum of 3 months, and up to 12 months. CD4+ or Treg cells at baseline to 12 months post-ECP were compared with changes in skin disease scores or global organ involvement, or the ability to taper steroids, at 14, 28, and 56 weeks. Results: Regulatory T cells % increased significantly above any overall changes in CD4+ % at 6, 9, and 12 months post-ECP. There was no statistically significant association between Treg cells and skin or steroid response, whereas a larger increase in CD4+ count from baseline to 1 to 3 months corresponded to increased odds of being able to reduce steroid dose by 50% or greater at 14 weeks. Skin and global organ responders at 28 weeks had higher median Treg cell counts 3 months post-ECP than nonresponders, as did steroid responders at 56 weeks who were 12 months post-ECP. Conclusions: Regulatory T cell counts and % varied greatly among cGvHD patients, and the increase post-ECP was not significant until 6 months. No clear correlation was found between Treg cells and clinical improvement, suggesting that increases in Treg cell numbers and/or proportions are not driving the mechanism leading to a response after ECP

Quantization and Compressive Sensing

Quantization is an essential step in digitizing signals, and, therefore, an indispensable component of any modern acquisition system. This book chapter explores the interaction of quantization and compressive sensing and examines practical quantization strategies for compressive acquisition systems. Specifically, we first provide a brief overview of quantization and examine fundamental performance bounds applicable to any quantization approach. Next, we consider several forms of scalar quantizers, namely uniform, non-uniform, and 1-bit. We provide performance bounds and fundamental analysis, as well as practical quantizer designs and reconstruction algorithms that account for quantization. Furthermore, we provide an overview of Sigma-Delta ($\Sigma\Delta$) quantization in the compressed sensing context, and also discuss implementation issues, recovery algorithms and performance bounds. As we demonstrate, proper accounting for quantization and careful quantizer design has significant impact in the performance of a compressive acquisition system.Comment: 35 pages, 20 figures, to appear in Springer book "Compressed Sensing and Its Applications", 201

Case Study on North-West Europe

This is an official report.This report constitutes Deliverable 7.2 of the FP7 Security Programme project ‘Evolving Concepts of Security’ (EvoCS, Grant Agreement 605142). This report on Work Package 7 (WP7) of the EvoCS project is chronologically the second deliverable of the work package. The purpose of this deliverable is to report on the North-West Europe (NWE) Case Study by creating a regional profile of the North-West region. Based on the analysis of the coding data of the UK, the Netherlands and France, workshop with the security experts from the NWE region and the review of the current national and EU level policies, this deliverable discusses the overall perception of security in NWE region. It demonstrates that NWE region shares a lot of similarities in security discourse. The most salient core value across the region is physical safety and security, with the most salient security challenge being terrorism and cyber-crime. It also shows the differences that appear within the region as well as between the region and the EU level discourse of security

Recommendations for the use of bioresorbable vascular scaffolds in percutaneous coronary interventions

Background To eliminate some of the potential late limitations of permanent metallic stents, the bioresorbable coronary stents or ‘bioresorbable vascular scaffolds’ (BVS) have been developed. Methods We reviewed all currently available clinical data on BVS implantation. Results Since the 2015 position statement on the appropriateness of BVS in percutaneous coronary interventions, several large randomised trials have been presented. These have demonstrated that achieving adequate 1 and 2 year outcomes with these first-generation BVS is not straightforward. These first adequately powered studies in non-complex lesions showed worse results if standard implan- tation techniques were used for these relatively thick scaffolds. Post-hoc analyses hypothesise that outcomes similar to current drug-eluting stents are still possible if aggressive lesion preparation, adequate sizing and high-pressure postdilatation are implemented rigorously. As long as this has not been confirmed in prospective studies the usage should be restricted to experienced centres with continuous outcome monitoring. For more complex lesions, results are even more disappointing and usage should be discouraged. When developed, newer generation scaffolds with thinner struts or faster resorption rates are expected to improve outcomes. In the meantime prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT, beyond one year) is recommended in an individu-alised approach for patients treated with current generation BVS. Conclusion The new 2017 recommendations downgrade and limit the use of the current BVS to experienced centres within dedicated registries using the updated implantation protocol and advise the prolonged usage of DAPT. In line with these recommendations the manufacturer does not supply devices to the hospitals without such registries in place

New Results for the Correlation Functions of the Ising Model and the Transverse Ising Chain

In this paper we show how an infinite system of coupled Toda-type nonlinear differential equations derived by one of us can be used efficiently to calculate the time-dependent pair-correlations in the Ising chain in a transverse field. The results are seen to match extremely well long large-time asymptotic expansions newly derived here. For our initial conditions we use new long asymptotic expansions for the equal-time pair correlation functions of the transverse Ising chain, extending an old result of T.T. Wu for the 2d Ising model. Using this one can also study the equal-time wavevector-dependent correlation function of the quantum chain, a.k.a. the q-dependent diagonal susceptibility in the 2d Ising model, in great detail with very little computational effort.Comment: LaTeX 2e, 31 pages, 8 figures (16 eps files). vs2: Two references added and minor changes of style. vs3: Corrections made and reference adde

Measurement of the Charged Multiplicities in b, c and Light Quark Events from Z0 Decays

Average charged multiplicities have been measured separately in $b$, $c$ and light quark ($u,d,s$) events from $Z^0$ decays measured in the SLD experiment. Impact parameters of charged tracks were used to select enriched samples of $b$ and light quark events, and reconstructed charmed mesons were used to select $c$ quark events. We measured the charged multiplicities: $\bar{n}_{uds} = 20.21 \pm 0.10 (\rm{stat.})\pm 0.22(\rm{syst.})$, $\bar{n}_{c} = 21.28 \pm 0.46(\rm{stat.}) ^{+0.41}_{-0.36}(\rm{syst.})$ $\bar{n}_{b} = 23.14 \pm 0.10(\rm{stat.}) ^{+0.38}_{-0.37}(\rm{syst.})$, from which we derived the differences between the total average charged multiplicities of $c$ or $b$ quark events and light quark events: $\Delta \bar{n}_c = 1.07 \pm 0.47(\rm{stat.})^{+0.36}_{-0.30}(\rm{syst.})$ and $\Delta \bar{n}_b = 2.93 \pm 0.14(\rm{stat.})^{+0.30}_{-0.29}(\rm{syst.})$. We compared these measurements with those at lower center-of-mass energies and with perturbative QCD predictions. These combined results are in agreement with the QCD expectations and disfavor the hypothesis of flavor-independent fragmentation.Comment: 19 pages LaTex, 4 EPS figures, to appear in Physics Letters