Topography and Tilt at Volcanoes

For optimal monitoring of the deformation of a volcano, instrumentation should be deployed at the location most sensitive to changes at the suspected deformation source. The topographic effect on tilt depends strongly on the orientation of the deformation field relative to the surface on which the instrument is deployed. This fact has long been understood and corrected for in tilt measurements related to body tides and referred to as “cavity” or “topographic effects” (Harrison, 1976). Despite this, and whilst topography at volcanoes is often significant, until now the topographic effect on tilt at volcanoes has not been systematically explored. Here, we investigate the topographic effect on tilt produced by either the pressurization of a reservoir or conduit, or shear stress as magma ascends through a conduit, using 2D axisymmetric and 3D finite element deformation modeling. We show that topography alone can amplify or reduce the tilt by more than an order of magnitude, and control the orientation of the maximum tilt. Therefore, a decrease in tilt can even be caused by an increase in deformation at the source. Hence, inverting for the source stress using simple analytical models that neglect topography could potentially lead to a misinterpretation of how the volcanic system is evolving. Since topographic features can amplify the tilt signal, they can be exploited when deciding upon an installation site

Incorporating statistical uncertainty in the use of physician cost profiles

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physician cost profiles (also called efficiency or economic profiles) compare the costs of care provided by a physician to his or her peers. These profiles are increasingly being used as the basis for policy applications such as tiered physician networks. Tiers (low, average, high cost) are currently defined by health plans based on percentile cut-offs which do not account for statistical uncertainty. In this paper we compare the percentile cut-off method to another method, using statistical testing, for identifying high-cost or low-cost physicians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We created a claims dataset of 2004-2005 data from four Massachusetts health plans. We employed commercial software to create episodes of care and assigned responsibility for each episode to the physician with the highest proportion of professional costs. A physicians' cost profile was the ratio of the sum of observed costs divided by the sum of expected costs across all assigned episodes. We discuss a new method of measuring standard errors of physician cost profiles which can be used in statistical testing. We then assigned each physician to one of three cost categories (low, average, or high cost) using two methods, percentile cut-offs and a t-test (p-value ≤ 0.05), and assessed the level of disagreement between the two methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Across the 8689 physicians in our sample, 29.5% of physicians were assigned a different cost category when comparing the percentile cut-off method and the t-test. This level of disagreement varied across specialties (17.4% gastroenterology to 45.8% vascular surgery).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Health plans and other payers should incorporate statistical uncertainty when they use physician cost-profiles to categorize physicians into low or high-cost tiers.</p

Do differences in profiling criteria bias performance measurements? Economic profiling of medical clinics under the Korea National Health Insurance program: An observational study using claims data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>With a greater emphasis on cost containment in many health care systems, it has become common to evaluate each physician's relative resource use. This study explored the major factors that influence the economic performance rankings of medical clinics in the Korea National Health Insurance (NHI) program by assessing the consistency between cost-efficiency indices constructed using different profiling criteria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data on medical care benefit costs for outpatient care at medical clinics nationwide were collected from the NHI claims database. We calculated eight types of cost-efficiency index with different profiling criteria for each medical clinic and investigated the agreement between the decile rankings of each index pair using the weighted kappa statistic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The exclusion of pharmacy cost lowered agreement between rankings to the lowest level, and differences in case-mix classification also lowered agreement considerably.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A medical clinic may be identified as either cost-efficient or cost-inefficient, even when using the same index, depending on the profiling criteria applied. Whether a country has a single insurance or a multiple-insurer system, it is very important to have standardized profiling criteria for the consolidated management of health care costs.</p

Accumulation and fate of nano- and micro-plastics and associated contaminants in organisms

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Following a decade of research on the environmental impacts of microplastics, a knowledge gap remains on the processes by which micro and nanoplastics pass across biological barriers, enter cells and are subject to biological mechanisms. Here we summarize available literature on the accumulation of microplastics and their associated contaminants in a variety of organisms including humans. Most data on the accumulation of microplastics in both field and lab studies are for marine invertebrates. Microplastics accumulation data for insects, birds, marine mammals and sea turtles are scarce due to methodological issues. There is no conclusive evidence for the mode of accumulation of microplastics in either mammals or humans. The mechanism of chemical partitioning, role of contaminants associated with plastics, and mode of action of both nano- and micro-plastics and associated chemicals in a range of organisms and associated compartments/tissues also requires further research.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Queensland Department of Healt

The changing immunology of organ transplantation

The engrafted organ becomes a chimera as the recipient's leukocytes station themselves in the transplant. Remarkably, the recipient becomes chimeric as well, in a reverse migration involving immune cells from the graft. Interactions between donor and recipient cells are tolerogenic-a process with implications for the goal of graft acceptance with minimal immunosuppression

Effective Field Theory and Finite Density Systems

This review gives an overview of effective field theory (EFT) as applied at finite density, with a focus on nuclear many-body systems. Uniform systems with short-range interactions illustrate the ingredients and virtues of many-body EFT and then the varied frontiers of EFT for finite nuclei and nuclear matter are surveyed.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figure

Combining Magma Flow and Deformation Modeling to Explain Observed Changes in Tilt

The understanding of magma ascent dynamics is essential in forecasting the scale, style and timing of volcanic eruptions. The monitoring of near-field deformation is widely used to gain insight into these dynamics, and has been linked to stress changes in the upper conduit. The ascent of magma through the conduit exerts shear stress on the conduit wall, pulling up the surrounding edifice, whilst overpressure in the upper conduit pushes the surrounding edifice outwards. How much shear stress and pressure is produced during magma ascent, and the relative contribution of each to the deformation, has until now only been explored conceptually. By combining flow and deformation modeling using COMSOL Multiphysics, we for the first time present a quantitative model that links magma ascent to deformation. We quantify how both shear stress and pressure vary spatially within a cylindrical conduit, and show that shear stress generally dominates observed changes in tilt close to the conduit. However, the relative contribution of pressure is not insignificant, and both pressure and shear stress must be considered when interpreting deformation data. We demonstrate that significant changes in tilt can be driven by changes in the driving pressure gradient or volatile content of the magma. The relative contribution of shear stress and pressure to the tilt varies considerably depending on these parameters. Our work provides insight into the range of elastic moduli that should be considered when modeling edifice-scale rock masses, and we show that even where the edifice is modeled as weak, shear stress generally dominates the near field deformation over pressurization of the conduit. While our model addresses cyclic tilt changes observed during activity at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, between 2013 and 2014, it is also applicable to silicic volcanoes in general

Automation and validation of micronucleus detection in the 3D EpiDerm™ human reconstructed skin assay and correlation with 2D dose responses.

Recent restrictions on the testing of cosmetic ingredients in animals have resulted in the need to test the genotoxic potential of chemicals exclusively in vitro prior to licensing. However, as current in vitro tests produce some misleading positive results, sole reliance on such tests could prevent some chemicals with safe or beneficial exposure levels from being marketed. The 3D human reconstructed skin micronucleus (RSMN) assay is a promising new in vitro approach designed to assess genotoxicity of dermally applied compounds. The assay utilises a highly differentiated in vitro model of the human epidermis. For the first time, we have applied automated micronucleus detection to this assay using MetaSystems Metafer Slide Scanning Platform (Metafer), demonstrating concordance with manual scoring. The RSMN assay's fixation protocol was found to be compatible with the Metafer, providing a considerably shorter alternative to the recommended Metafer protocol. Lowest observed genotoxic effect levels (LOGELs) were observed for mitomycin-C at 4.8 µg/ml and methyl methanesulfonate (MMS) at 1750 µg/ml when applied topically to the skin surface. In-medium dosing with MMS produced a LOGEL of 20 µg/ml, which was very similar to the topical LOGEL when considering the total mass of MMS added. Comparisons between 3D medium and 2D LOGELs resulted in a 7-fold difference in total mass of MMS applied to each system, suggesting a protective function of the 3D microarchitecture. Interestingly, hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), a positive clastogen in 2D systems, tested negative in this assay. A non-genotoxic carcinogen, methyl carbamate, produced negative results, as expected. We also demonstrated expression of the DNA repair protein N-methylpurine-DNA glycosylase in EpiDerm™. Our preliminary validation here demonstrates that the RSMN assay may be a valuable follow-up to the current in vitro test battery, and together with its automation, could contribute to minimising unnecessary in vivo tests by reducing in vitro misleading positives