Timescale Dependence in River Channel Migration Measurements

Accurately measuring river meander migration over time is critical for sediment budgets and understanding how rivers respond to changes in hydrology or sediment supply. However, estimates of meander migration rates or streambank contributions to sediment budgets using repeat aerial imagery, maps, or topographic data will be underestimated without proper accounting for channel reversal. Furthermore, comparing channel planform adjustment measured over dissimilar timescales are biased because short‐ and long‐term measurements are disproportionately affected by temporary rate variability, long‐term hiatuses, and channel reversals. We evaluate the role of timescale dependence for the Root River, a single threaded meandering sand‐ and gravel‐bedded river in southeastern Minnesota, USA, with 76 years of aerial photographs spanning an era of landscape changes that have drastically altered flows. Empirical data and results from a statistical river migration model both confirm a temporal measurement‐scale dependence, illustrated by systematic underestimations (2–15% at 50 years) and convergence of migration rates measured over sufficiently long timescales (\u3e 40 years). Frequency of channel reversals exerts primary control on measurement bias for longer time intervals by erasing the record of observable migration. We conclude that using long‐term measurements of channel migration for sediment remobilization projections, streambank contributions to sediment budgets, sediment flux estimates, and perceptions of fluvial change will necessarily underestimate such calculations. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Climate and Dispersal: Black-Winged Stilts Disperse Further in Dry Springs

Climate affects the abundance and distribution of many species of wildlife. Nevertheless, the potential effects of climate on dispersive behaviour remain unstudied. Here, I combine data from (i) a long-term Black-winged Stilt (Himantopus himantopus) monitoring program, (ii) a capture-recapture marking program in Doñana, and (iii) reports from the Rare Birds Committee in the United Kingdom to analyse at different geographical scales the relationship between climate, survival, philopatry, and dispersive behaviour. Black-winged Stilt populations varied in size in consonance with changes in both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and local rainfall during the breeding season. Changes in population size are related to changes in philopatry and increases in dispersal beyond the traditional range of the species. The results indicate that climatic conditions influence the dispersive behaviour of individual birds, explaining rapid changes in the local population of this species breeding in unstable Mediterranean wetlands

Building development and roads: implications for the distribution of stone curlews across the Brecks

Background: Substantial new housing and infrastructure development planned within England has the potential to conflict with the nature conservation interests of protected sites. The Breckland area of eastern England (the Brecks) is designated as a Special Protection Area for a number of bird species, including the stone curlew (for which it holds more than 60% of the UK total population). We explore the effect of buildings and roads on the spatial distribution of stone curlew nests across the Brecks in order to inform strategic development plans to avoid adverse effects on such European protected sites. Methodology: Using data across all years (and subsets of years) over the period 1988 – 2006 but restricted to habitat areas of arable land with suitable soils, we assessed nest density in relation to the distances to nearest settlements and to major roads. Measures of the local density of nearby buildings, roads and traffic levels were assessed using normal kernel distance-weighting functions. Quasi-Poisson generalised linear mixed models allowing for spatial auto-correlation were fitted. Results: Significantly lower densities of stone curlew nests were found at distances up to 1500m from settlements, and distances up to 1000m or more from major (trunk) roads. The best fitting models involved optimally distance-weighted variables for the extent of nearby buildings and the trunk road traffic levels. Significance : The results and predictions from this study of past data suggests there is cause for concern that future housing development and associated road infrastructure within the Breckland area could have negative impacts on the nesting stone curlew population. Given the strict legal protection afforded to the SPA the planning and conservation bodies have subsequently agreed precautionary restrictions on building development within the distances identified and used the modelling predictions to agree mitigation measures for proposed trunk road developments

Both habitat change and local lek structure influence patterns of spatial loss and recovery in a black grouse population

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10144-015-0484-3Land use change is a major driver of declines in wildlife populations. Where human economic or recreational interests and wildlife share landscapes this problem is exacerbated. Changes in UK black grouse Tetrao tetrix populations are thought to have been strongly influenced by upland land use change. In a long-studied population within Perthshire, lek persistence is positively correlated with lek size, and remaining leks clustered most strongly within the landscape when the population is lowest, suggesting that there may be a demographic and/or spatial context to the reaction of the population to habitat changes. Hierarchical cluster analysis of lek locations revealed that patterns of lek occupancy when the population was declining were different to those during the later recovery period. Response curves from lek-habitat models developed using MaxEnt for periods with a declining population, low population, and recovering population were consistent across years for most habitat measures. We found evidence linking lek persistence with habitat quality changes and more leks which appeared between 1994 and 2008 were in improving habitat than those which disappeared during the same period. Generalised additive models (GAMs) identified changes in woodland and starting lek size as being important indicators of lek survival between declining and low/recovery periods. There may also have been a role for local densities in explaining recovery since the population low point. Persistence of black grouse leks was influenced by habitat, but changes in this alone did not fully account for black grouse declines. Even when surrounded by good quality habitat, leks can be susceptible to extirpation due to isolation

Whitebark Pine Stand Condition, Tree Abundance, and Cone Production as Predictors of Visitation by Clark's Nutcracker

Accurately quantifying key interactions between species is important for developing effective recovery strategies for threatened and endangered species. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), a candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, depends on Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) for seed dispersal. As whitebark pine succumbs to exotic disease and mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae), cone production declines, and nutcrackers visit stands less frequently, reducing the probability of seed dispersal.We quantified whitebark pine forest structure, health metrics, and the frequency of nutcracker occurrence in national parks within the Northern and Central Rocky Mountains in 2008 and 2009. Forest health characteristics varied between the two regions, with the northern region in overall poorer health. Using these data, we show that a previously published model consistently under-predicts the proportion of survey hours resulting in nutcracker observations at all cone density levels. We present a new statistical model of the relationship between whitebark pine cone production and the probability of Clark's nutcracker occurrence based on combining data from this study and the previous study.Our model clarified earlier findings and suggested a lower cone production threshold value for predicting likely visitation by nutcrackers: Although nutcrackers do visit whitebark pine stands with few cones, the probability of visitation increases with increased cone production. We use information theoretics to show that beta regression is a more appropriate statistical framework for modeling the relationship between cone density and proportion of survey time resulting in nutcracker observations. We illustrate how resource managers may apply this model in the process of prioritizing areas for whitebark pine restoration

Breeding productivity, nest-site selection and conservation needs of the endemic Turkestan Ground-jay Podoces panderi

The Turkestan Ground-jay Podoces panderi, a corvid endemic to the deserts of Central Asia, is both understudied and under-protected. Using standardised nest-monitoring protocols and nest cameras, we estimated its breeding productivity for the first time as 0.586 fledglings per nesting attempt (inter-quartile range, IQR 0.413‒0.734), strongly constrained by a diverse set of predator species (accounting for 88% of failures), supporting the broad pattern that a wide spectrum of nest predators operate in arid environments. The probability of nest success for the 35 days from the start of incubation to fledging was low, 0.186 ± 0.06 se (N = 37), with no influence of season date, nest height or nest shrub species. However, pervasive shrub harvest severely limited availability of taller shrubs for nest-site selection, and thus our ability to detect any effect of height on nest survival. Mean clutch size was 4.8 ± 0.8 sd while hatching probability of an egg from a clutch surviving incubation was 0.800 ± 0.050 se and fledging probability was 0.824 ± 0.093 se for individual chicks in successful nests (i.e. that fledged one or more chicks). Two shrub genera, saxaul Haloxylon spp. and Calligonum spp., were used for nesting more frequently than expected (χ152 = 784.02, P < 0.001), highlighting their importance to breeding habitat suitability. This near-sole reliance on these taller shrub genera, both targeted for illegal cutting, indicates that habitat degradation may lead to increased predation and declines in productivity. Habitat conservation is, therefore, likely to be the most important management strategy for the species and other components of desert systems, as management of so diverse a set of nest predators would be both impractical and inappropriate

A Landscape and Climate Data Logistic Model of Tsetse Distribution in Kenya

, biologically transmitted by the tsetse fly in Africa, are a major cause of illness resulting in both high morbidity and mortality among humans, cattle, wild ungulates, and other species. However, tsetse fly distributions change rapidly due to environmental changes, and fine-scale distribution maps are few. Due to data scarcity, most presence/absence estimates in Kenya prior to 2000 are a combination of local reports, entomological knowledge, and topographic information. The availability of tsetse fly abundance data are limited, or at least have not been collected into aggregate, publicly available national datasets. Despite this limitation, other avenues exist for estimating tsetse distributions including remotely sensed data, climate information, and statistical tools.Here we present a logistic regression model of tsetse abundance. The goal of this model is to estimate the distribution of tsetse fly in Kenya in the year 2000, and to provide a method by which to anticipate their future distribution. Multiple predictor variables were tested for significance and for predictive power; ultimately, a parsimonious subset of variables was identified and used to construct the regression model with the 1973 tsetse map. These data were validated against year 2000 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates. Mapcurves Goodness-Of-Fit scores were used to evaluate the modeled fly distribution against FAO estimates and against 1973 presence/absence data, each driven by appropriate climate data.Logistic regression can be effectively used to produce a model that projects fly abundance under elevated greenhouse gas scenarios. This model identifies potential areas for tsetse abandonment and expansion

Lions and Prions and Deer Demise

Background: Contagious prion diseases – scrapie of sheep and chronic wasting disease of several species in the deer family – give rise to epidemics that seem capable of compromising host population viability. Despite this prospect, the ecological consequences of prion disease epidemics in natural populations have received little consideration. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using a cohort study design, we found that prion infection dramatically lowered survival of free-ranging adult (.2-year-old) mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus): estimated average life expectancy was 5.2 additional years for uninfected deer but only 1.6 additional years for infected deer. Prion infection also increased nearly fourfold the rate of mountain lions (Puma concolor) preying on deer, suggesting that epidemics may alter predator–prey dynamics by facilitating hunting success. Despite selective predation, about one fourth of the adult deer we sampled were infected. High prevalence and low survival of infected deer provided a plausible explanation for the marked decline in this deer population since the 1980s. Conclusion: Remarkably high infection rates sustained in the face of intense predation show that even seemingly complete ecosystems may offer little resistance to the spread and persistence of contagious prion diseases. Moreover, the depression of infected populations may lead to local imbalances in food webs and nutrient cycling in ecosystems in which deer ar

Broad Spectrum Antiviral Activity of Favipiravir (T-705): Protection from Highly Lethal Inhalational Rift Valley Fever

Background:Development of antiviral drugs that have broad-spectrum activity against a number of viral infections would be of significant benefit. Due to the evolution of resistance to currently licensed antiviral drugs, development of novel anti-influenza drugs is in progress, including Favipiravir (T-705), which is currently in human clinical trials. T-705 displays broad-spectrum in vitro activity against a number of viruses, including Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV). RVF is an important neglected tropical disease that causes human, agricultural, and economic losses in endemic regions. RVF has the capacity to emerge in new locations and also presents a potential bioterrorism threat. In the current study, the in vivo efficacy of T-705 was evaluated in Wistar-Furth rats infected with the virulent ZH501 strain of RVFV by the aerosol route.Methodology/Principal Findings:Wistar-Furth rats are highly susceptible to a rapidly lethal disease after parenteral or inhalational exposure to the pathogenic ZH501 strain of RVFV. In the current study, two experiments were performed: a dose-determination study and a delayed-treatment study. In both experiments, all untreated control rats succumbed to disease. Out of 72 total rats infected with RVFV and treated with T-705, only 6 succumbed to disease. The remaining 66 rats (92%) survived lethal infection with no significant weight loss or fever. The 6 treated rats that succumbed survived significantly longer before succumbing to encephalitic disease.Conclusions/Significance:Currently, there are no licensed antiviral drugs for treating RVF. Here, T-705 showed remarkable efficacy in a highly lethal rat model of Rift Valley Fever, even when given up to 48 hours post-infection. This is the first study to show protection of rats infected with the pathogenic ZH501 strain of RVFV. Our data suggest that T-705 has potential to be a broad-spectrum antiviral drug. © 2014 Caroline et al

Testosterone levels are negatively associated with childlessness in males, but positively related to offspring count in fathers

Variation in testosterone (T) is thought to affect the allocation of effort between reproductive and parenting strategies. Here, using a large sample of elderly American men (n = 754) and women (n = 669) we examined the relationship between T and self-reported parenthood, as well as the relationship between T and number of reported children. Results supported previous findings from the literature, showing that fathers had lower T levels than men who report no children. Furthermore, we found that among fathers T levels were positively associated with the number of children a man reports close to the end of his lifespan. Results were maintained when controlling for a number of relevant factors such as time of T sampling, participant age, educational attainment, BMI, marital status and reported number of sex partners. In contrast, T was not associated with either motherhood or the number of children women had, suggesting that, at least in this sample, T does not influence the allocation of effort between reproductive and parenting strategies among women. Findings from this study contribute to the growing body of literature suggesting that, among men, pair bonding and paternal care are associated with lower T levels, while searching and acquiring sex partners is associated with higher T levels.27 Jun 2013: Pollet TV, Cobey KD, van der Meij L (2013) Correction: Testosterone Levels Are Negatively Associated with Childlessness in Males, but Positively Related to Offspring Count in Fathers. PLoS ONE 8(6): 10.1371/annotation/bccccb7e-48a7-4594-b3e6-ce8c9d2489a2