Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.

The evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus leads to new variants that warrant timely epidemiological characterization. Here we use the dense genomic surveillance data generated by the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium to reconstruct the dynamics of 71 different lineages in each of 315 English local authorities between September 2020 and June 2021. This analysis reveals a series of subepidemics that peaked in early autumn 2020, followed by a jump in transmissibility of the B.1.1.7/Alpha lineage. The Alpha variant grew when other lineages declined during the second national lockdown and regionally tiered restrictions between November and December 2020. A third more stringent national lockdown suppressed the Alpha variant and eliminated nearly all other lineages in early 2021. Yet a series of variants (most of which contained the spike E484K mutation) defied these trends and persisted at moderately increasing proportions. However, by accounting for sustained introductions, we found that the transmissibility of these variants is unlikely to have exceeded the transmissibility of the Alpha variant. Finally, B.1.617.2/Delta was repeatedly introduced in England and grew rapidly in early summer 2021, constituting approximately 98% of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes on 26 June 2021

Improving survival trends in primary myelofibrosis: an international study.

PURPOSE: Despite the lack of major improvements in the treatment of primary myelofibrosis (PMF), there are recent indications that the survival of patients might have increased over the years. This study was aimed at ascertaining whether survival prolongation has actually occurred in PMF. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 802 patients diagnosed with PMF in four European countries were compared for the presentation of features and survival according to the diagnostic periods 1980 to 1995 (n = 434) and 1996 to 2007 (n = 368); relative survival was estimated for the two groups. RESULTS: Patients diagnosed between 1996 and 2007 more often had constitutional symptoms (31% v 23%) but a lower incidence of marked anemia (31% v 39%), leukocytosis greater than 25 7 10(9)/L (9% v 13%), and blood blasts (27% v 33%); risk distribution was comparable between the two groups. Median survival was 4.6 years (95% CI, 4.0 to 5.1) for patients from 1980 to 1995 and 6.5 years (95% CI, 5.5 to 7.4) for patients from 1996 to 2007 (P < .001). The latter group of patients showed improved relative survival, especially for women, patients younger than age 65 years, and patients with low or intermediate-1-risk disease. Rates of PMF-attributable mortality at 5 and 10 years were significantly lower in the second period; this reduction in disease-specific mortality occurred across all patient subgroups, except in intermediate-2-risk or high-risk patients. CONCLUSION: Survival of PMF is steadily improving, except in patients in poor-risk categories. This observation must be taken into account at the time of evaluating the survival impact of newer therapies for PMF, which are currently being tested in these patient subpopulations

New prognostic scoring system for primary myelofibrosis based on a study of the International Working Group for Myelofibrosis Research and Treatment

Therapeutic decision-making in primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is becoming more challenging because of the increasing use of allogeneic stem cell transplantation and new investigational drugs. To enhance this process by developing a highly discriminative prognostic system, 1054 patients consecutively diagnosed with PMF at 7 centers were studied. Overall median survival was 69 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 61-76). Multivariate analysis of parameters obtained at disease diagnosis identified age greater than 65 years, presence of constitutional symptoms, hemoglobin level less than 10 g/dL, leukocyte count greater than 25 x 10(9)/L, and circulating blast cells 1% or greater as predictors of shortened survival. Based on the presence of 0 (low risk), 1 (intermediate risk-1), 2 (intermediate risk-2) or greater than or equal to 3 (high risk) of these variables, 4 risk groups with no overlapping in their survival curves were delineated; respective median survivals were 135, 95, 48, and 27 months (P< .001). Compared with prior prognostic models, the new risk stratification system displayed higher predictive accuracy, replicability, and discriminating power. In 409 patients with assessable metaphases, cytogenetic abnormalities were associated with shorter survival, but their independent contribution to prognosis was restricted to patients in the intermediate-risk groups. JAK2V617F did not cluster with a specific risk group or affect survival