Efficient Bayesian inference for COM-Poisson regression models

COM-Poisson regression is an increasingly popular model for count data. Its main advantage is that it permits to model separately the mean and the variance of the counts, thus allowing the same covariate to affect in different ways the average level and the variability of the response variable. A key limiting factor to the use of the COM-Poisson distribution is the calculation of the normalisation constant: its accurate evaluation can be time-consuming and is not always feasible. We circumvent this problem, in the context of estimating a Bayesian COM-Poisson regression, by resorting to the exchange algorithm, an MCMC method applicable to situations where the sampling model (likelihood) can only be computed up to a normalisation constant. The algorithm requires to draw from the sampling model, which in the case of the COM-Poisson distribution can be done efficiently using rejection sampling. We illustrate the method and the benefits of using a Bayesian COM-Poisson regression model, through a simulation and two real-world data sets with different levels of dispersion

Quantum nondemolition measurement of mechanical motion quanta

The fields of opto- and electromechanics have facilitated numerous advances in the areas of precision measurement and sensing, ultimately driving the studies of mechanical systems into the quantum regime. To date, however, the quantization of the mechanical motion and the associated quantum jumps between phonon states remains elusive. For optomechanical systems, the coupling to the environment was shown to preclude the detection of the mechanical mode occupation, unless strong single photon optomechanical coupling is achieved. Here, we propose and analyse an electromechanical setup, which allows to overcome this limitation and resolve the energy levels of a mechanical oscillator. We find that the heating of the membrane, caused by the interaction with the environment and unwanted couplings, can be suppressed for carefully designed electromechanical systems. The results suggest that phonon number measurement is within reach for modern electromechanical setups.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures plus 24 pages, 11 figures supplemental materia

Performed and preferred participation in science and technology across Europe: Exploring an alternative idea of "democratic deficit"

Republican ideals of active scientific citizenship and extensive use of deliberative, democratic decision making have come to dominate the public participation agenda, and academic analyses have focused on the deficit of public involvement vis-à-vis these normative ideals. In this paper we use latent class models to explore what Eurobarometer survey data can tell us about the ways in which people participate in tacit or in policy-active ways with developments in science and technology, but instead of focusing on the distance between observed participation and the dominant, normative ideal of participation, we examine the distance between what people do, and what they themselves think is appropriate in terms of involvement. The typology of citizens emerging from the analyses entails an entirely different diagnosis of democratic deficit, one that stresses imbalance between performed and preferred participation

Geographical inequalities in lung cancer management and survival in South East England: evidence of variation in access to oncology services?

This study aimed to determine whether the management and survival of patients with lung cancer varied among 26 health authorities in South East England. The Thames Cancer Registry identified patients diagnosed with lung cancer (ICD-10 codes C33-C34) between 1995 and 1999. After excluding death certificate only patients, 32,818 (81%) patients were analysed. The proportions of patients receiving active treatment varied among health authorities between 5 and 17% for non-investigative surgery, 4 and 17% for any chemotherapy, 8 and 30% for any radiotherapy and 15 and 42% for any active treatment. One-year patient survival ranged from 11 to 34%. There was evidence of health authority level variation even after adjusting for case mix. Patients whose first hospital attendance was at a radiotherapy centre were more likely to receive active treatment (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.21-2.46), chemotherapy (1.38, 1.06-1.79) or radiotherapy (1.86, 1.28-2.71). There was some evidence that patients whose first hospital attendance was at a radiotherapy centre survived longer. This study shows there is geographical inequality in the treatment given to lung cancer patients and patient survival in South East England. There was some evidence to suggest that these inequalities might be explained by variations in access to oncology services. Future studies should investigate the pathways and barriers to specialist care in this condition

Waiting times for radiotherapy: variation over time and between cancer networks in southeast England

The aim of this study was to investigate variations in the length of time that patients with cancer wait from diagnosis to treatment with radiotherapy. A total of 57 426 men and 71 018 women diagnosed with cancer between 1992 and 2001 and receiving radiotherapy within 6 months of diagnosis were identified from the Thames Cancer Registry database. In total, 12 sites were identified for which a substantial number or proportion of patients received radiotherapy: head and neck, oesophagus, colon, rectum, lung, nonmelanoma skin cancer, breast, uterus, prostate, bladder, brain and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Median waiting times from diagnosis to radiotherapy were calculated, together with the proportion of patients who received radiotherapy within 60 days of diagnosis, and analysed by year of diagnosis, cancer site, deprivation quintile, age at diagnosis, sex and cancer network of either residence or treatment. Logistic regression was used to adjust the proportion receiving treatment within 60 days for the effects of the other factors. There were significant differences in the proportions receiving radiotherapy within 60 days between different networks and different cancer sites, which remained after adjustment. Median waiting times varied from 42 to 65 days across networks of residence, with the adjusted proportion treated within 60 days ranging from 44 to 71%. There was no difference between male and female patients after adjustment for the other factors, particularly site. There was a highly significant trend over time: the median wait increased from 45 days in 1992 to 76 days in 2001, while the adjusted proportion being treated within 60 days declined by almost a half, from 64 to 35%, over the same period

Buses, cars, bicycles and walkers the influence of the type of human transport on the flight responses of waterbirds

One way to manage disturbance to waterbirds in natural areas where humans require access is to promote the occurrence of stimuli for which birds tolerate closer approaches, and so cause fewer responses. We conducted 730 experimental approaches to 39 species of waterbird, using five stimulus types (single walker, three walkers, bicycle, car and bus) selected to mimic different human management options available for a controlled access, Ramsar-listed wetland. Across species, where differences existed (56% of 25 cases), motor vehicles always evoked shorter flight-initiation distances (FID) than humans on foot. The influence of stimulus type on FID varied across four species for which enough data were available for complete cross-stimulus analysis. All four varied FID in relation to stimuli, differing in 4 to 7 of 10 possible comparisons. Where differences occurred, the effect size was generally modest, suggesting that managing stimulus type (e.g. by requiring people to use vehicles) may have species-specific, modest benefits, at least for the waterbirds we studied. However, different stimulus types have different capacities to reduce the frequency of disturbance (i.e. by carrying more people) and vary in their capacity to travel around important habita

(Micro)evolutionary changes and the evolutionary potential of bird migration

Seasonal migration is the yearly long-distance movement of individuals between their breeding and wintering grounds. Individuals from nearly every animal group exhibit this behavior, but probably the most iconic migration is carried out by birds, from the classic V-shape formation of geese on migration to the amazing nonstop long-distance flights undertaken by Arctic Terns Sterna paradisaea. In this chapter, we discuss how seasonal migration has shaped the field of evolution. First, this behavior is known to turn on and off quite rapidly, but controversy remains concerning where this behavior first evolved geographically and whether the ancestral state was sedentary or migratory (Fig. 7.1d, e). We review recent work using new analytical techniques to provide insight into this topic. Second, it is widely accepted that there is a large genetic basis to this trait, especially in groups like songbirds that migrate alone and at night precluding any opportunity for learning. Key hypotheses on this topic include shared genetic variation used by different populations to migrate and only few genes being involved in its control. We summarize recent work using new techniques for both phenotype and genotype characterization to evaluate and challenge these hypotheses. Finally, one topic that has received less attention is the role these differences in migratory phenotype could play in the process of speciation. Specifically, many populations breed next to one another but take drastically different routes on migration (Fig. 7.2). This difference could play an important role in reducing gene flow between populations, but our inability to track most birds on migration has so far precluded evaluations of this hypothesis. The advent of new tracking techniques means we can track many more birds with increasing accuracy on migration, and this work has provided important insight into migration's role in speciation that we will review here

Postcopulatory sexual selection

The female reproductive tract is where competition between the sperm of different males takes place, aided and abetted by the female herself. Intense postcopulatory sexual selection fosters inter-sexual conflict and drives rapid evolutionary change to generate a startling diversity of morphological, behavioural and physiological adaptations. We identify three main issues that should be resolved to advance our understanding of postcopulatory sexual selection. We need to determine the genetic basis of different male fertility traits and female traits that mediate sperm selection; identify the genes or genomic regions that control these traits; and establish the coevolutionary trajectory of sexes

Gibbsian Method for the Self-Optimization of Cellular Networks

In this work, we propose and analyze a class of distributed algorithms performing the joint optimization of radio resources in heterogeneous cellular networks made of a juxtaposition of macro and small cells. Within this context, it is essential to use algorithms able to simultaneously solve the problems of channel selection, user association and power control. In such networks, the unpredictability of the cell and user patterns also requires distributed optimization schemes. The proposed method is inspired from statistical physics and based on the Gibbs sampler. It does not require the concavity/convexity, monotonicity or duality properties common to classical optimization problems. Besides, it supports discrete optimization which is especially useful to practical systems. We show that it can be implemented in a fully distributed way and nevertheless achieves system-wide optimality. We use simulation to compare this solution to today's default operational methods in terms of both throughput and energy consumption. Finally, we address concrete issues for the implementation of this solution and analyze the overhead traffic required within the framework of 3GPP and femtocell standards.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures, to appear in EURASIP Journal on Wireless Communications and Networking 201

Antioxidant Defenses Predict Long-Term Survival in a Passerine Bird

Normal and pathological processes entail the production of oxidative substances that can damage biological molecules and harm physiological functions. Organisms have evolved complex mechanisms of antioxidant defense, and any imbalance between oxidative challenge and antioxidant protection can depress fitness components and accelerate senescence. While the role of oxidative stress in pathogenesis and aging has been studied intensively in humans and model animal species under laboratory conditions, there is a dearth of knowledge on its role in shaping life-histories of animals under natural selection regimes. Yet, given the pervasive nature and likely fitness consequences of oxidative damage, it can be expected that the need to secure efficient antioxidant protection is powerful in molding the evolutionary ecology of animals. Here, we test whether overall antioxidant defense varies with age and predicts long-term survival, using a wild population of a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), as a model.Plasma antioxidant capacity (AOC) of breeding individuals was measured using standard protocols and annual survival was monitored over five years (2006-2010) on a large sample of selection episodes. AOC did not covary with age in longitudinal analyses after discounting the effect of selection. AOC positively predicted annual survival independently of sex. Individuals were highly consistent in their relative levels of AOC, implying the existence of additive genetic variance and/or environmental (including early maternal) components consistently acting through their lives.Using longitudinal data we showed that high levels of antioxidant protection positively predict long-term survival in a wild animal population. Present results are therefore novel in disclosing a role for antioxidant protection in determining survival under natural conditions, strongly demanding for more longitudinal eco-physiological studies of life-histories in relation to oxidative stress in wild populations