382 research outputs found
Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin
Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961–1990) demonstrated the models’ skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ⩽0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future’ weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that interannual variability in climate will continue to have the dominant impact on water resources management whichever trajectory is followed. This demonstrates the need for sophisticated downscaling methods which can evaluate changes in variability and sequencing of events to explore climate change impacts in this region
Determination of the Strong Coupling \boldmath{\as} from hadronic Event Shapes and NNLO QCD predictions using JADE Data
Event Shape Data from annihilation into hadrons collected by the
JADE experiment at centre-of-mass energies between 14 GeV and 44 GeV are used
to determine the strong coupling . QCD predictions complete to
next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO), alternatively combined with resummed
next-to-leading-log-approximation (NNLO+NLLA) calculations, are used. The
combined value from six different event shape observables at the six JADE
centre-of-mass energies using the NNLO calculations is
= 0.1210 +/- 0.0007(stat.) +/- 0.0021(expt.) +/- 0.0044(had.)
+/- 0.0036(theo.) and with the NNLO+NLLA calculations the combined value is
= 0.1172 +/- 0.0006(stat.) +/- 0.0020(expt.) +/- 0.0035(had.) +/-
0.0030(theo.) . The stability of the NNLO and NNLO+NLLA results with respect to
missing higher order contributions, studied by variations of the
renormalisation scale, is improved compared to previous results obtained with
NLO+NLLA or with NLO predictions only. The observed energy dependence of
agrees with the QCD prediction of asymptotic freedom and excludes
absence of running with 99% confidence level.Comment: 9 pages, EPHJA style, 4 figures, corresponds to published version
with JADE author lis
Observation of hard scattering in photoproduction events with a large rapidity gap at HERA
Events with a large rapidity gap and total transverse energy greater than 5
GeV have been observed in quasi-real photoproduction at HERA with the ZEUS
detector. The distribution of these events as a function of the
centre of mass energy is consistent with diffractive scattering. For total
transverse energies above 12 GeV, the hadronic final states show predominantly
a two-jet structure with each jet having a transverse energy greater than 4
GeV. For the two-jet events, little energy flow is found outside the jets. This
observation is consistent with the hard scattering of a quasi-real photon with
a colourless object in the proton.Comment: 19 pages, latex, 4 figures appended as uuencoded fil
Search for a W' boson decaying to a bottom quark and a top quark in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV
Results are presented from a search for a W' boson using a dataset
corresponding to 5.0 inverse femtobarns of integrated luminosity collected
during 2011 by the CMS experiment at the LHC in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV.
The W' boson is modeled as a heavy W boson, but different scenarios for the
couplings to fermions are considered, involving both left-handed and
right-handed chiral projections of the fermions, as well as an arbitrary
mixture of the two. The search is performed in the decay channel W' to t b,
leading to a final state signature with a single lepton (e, mu), missing
transverse energy, and jets, at least one of which is tagged as a b-jet. A W'
boson that couples to fermions with the same coupling constant as the W, but to
the right-handed rather than left-handed chiral projections, is excluded for
masses below 1.85 TeV at the 95% confidence level. For the first time using LHC
data, constraints on the W' gauge coupling for a set of left- and right-handed
coupling combinations have been placed. These results represent a significant
improvement over previously published limits.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters B. Replaced with version publishe
Search for the standard model Higgs boson decaying into two photons in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV
A search for a Higgs boson decaying into two photons is described. The
analysis is performed using a dataset recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC
from pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV, which corresponds to an
integrated luminosity of 4.8 inverse femtobarns. Limits are set on the cross
section of the standard model Higgs boson decaying to two photons. The expected
exclusion limit at 95% confidence level is between 1.4 and 2.4 times the
standard model cross section in the mass range between 110 and 150 GeV. The
analysis of the data excludes, at 95% confidence level, the standard model
Higgs boson decaying into two photons in the mass range 128 to 132 GeV. The
largest excess of events above the expected standard model background is
observed for a Higgs boson mass hypothesis of 124 GeV with a local significance
of 3.1 sigma. The global significance of observing an excess with a local
significance greater than 3.1 sigma anywhere in the search range 110-150 GeV is
estimated to be 1.8 sigma. More data are required to ascertain the origin of
this excess.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters
Measurement of the Lambda(b) cross section and the anti-Lambda(b) to Lambda(b) ratio with Lambda(b) to J/Psi Lambda decays in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV
The Lambda(b) differential production cross section and the cross section
ratio anti-Lambda(b)/Lambda(b) are measured as functions of transverse momentum
pt(Lambda(b)) and rapidity abs(y(Lambda(b))) in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7
TeV using data collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC. The measurements are
based on Lambda(b) decays reconstructed in the exclusive final state J/Psi
Lambda, with the subsequent decays J/Psi to an opposite-sign muon pair and
Lambda to proton pion, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated
luminosity of 1.9 inverse femtobarns. The product of the cross section times
the branching ratio for Lambda(b) to J/Psi Lambda versus pt(Lambda(b)) falls
faster than that of b mesons. The measured value of the cross section times the
branching ratio for pt(Lambda(b)) > 10 GeV and abs(y(Lambda(b))) < 2.0 is 1.06
+/- 0.06 +/- 0.12 nb, and the integrated cross section ratio for
anti-Lambda(b)/Lambda(b) is 1.02 +/- 0.07 +/- 0.09, where the uncertainties are
statistical and systematic, respectively.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters
Search for new physics in events with opposite-sign leptons, jets, and missing transverse energy in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV
A search is presented for physics beyond the standard model (BSM) in final
states with a pair of opposite-sign isolated leptons accompanied by jets and
missing transverse energy. The search uses LHC data recorded at a
center-of-mass energy sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the CMS detector, corresponding to
an integrated luminosity of approximately 5 inverse femtobarns. Two
complementary search strategies are employed. The first probes models with a
specific dilepton production mechanism that leads to a characteristic kinematic
edge in the dilepton mass distribution. The second strategy probes models of
dilepton production with heavy, colored objects that decay to final states
including invisible particles, leading to very large hadronic activity and
missing transverse energy. No evidence for an event yield in excess of the
standard model expectations is found. Upper limits on the BSM contributions to
the signal regions are deduced from the results, which are used to exclude a
region of the parameter space of the constrained minimal supersymmetric
extension of the standard model. Additional information related to detector
efficiencies and response is provided to allow testing specific models of BSM
physics not considered in this paper.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO
Measurement of isolated photon production in pp and PbPb collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 2.76 TeV
Isolated photon production is measured in proton-proton and lead-lead
collisions at nucleon-nucleon centre-of-mass energies of 2.76 TeV in the
pseudorapidity range |eta|<1.44 and transverse energies ET between 20 and 80
GeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. The measured ET spectra are found to be
in good agreement with next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD predictions. The
ratio of PbPb to pp isolated photon ET-differential yields, scaled by the
number of incoherent nucleon-nucleon collisions, is consistent with unity for
all PbPb reaction centralities.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters
Is upper gastrointestinal radiography a cost-effective alternative to a Helicobacter pylori “Test and Treat” strategy for patients with suspected peptic ulcer disease?
Current clinical consensus supports an initial Helicobacter pylori (HP) “test and treat” approach when compared to immediate endoscopy for patients with suspected peptic ulcer disease. Alternative diagnostic approaches that incorporate upper GI radiography (UGI) have not been previously evaluated. We sought to determine the cost effectiveness of UGI compared to a HP test and treat strategy, incorporating recent data addressing the reduced prevalence of HP, lower cost of diagnostic interventions, and reduced attribution of PUD to HP. METHODS : Using decision analysis, three diagnostic and treatment strategies were evaluated: 1) Test and Treat —initial HP serology, treat patients who test positive with HP eradication and antiulcer therapy; 2) Initial UGI series —treat all patients with documented ulcer disease with HP eradication and antiulcer therapy; and 3) Initial UGI series, HP serology if ulcer present — treat ulcer and HP based on diagnostic test results. RESULTS : The estimated cost per ulcer cured for each strategy were as follows: test and treat, 3,690; and UGI with serology, 498; initial UGI, 620. When UGI reimbursement was decreased to less than $50, the UGI strategies yielded a lower cost per patient treated than the test and treat strategy. CONCLUSION : At the current level of reimbursement, UGI should not be considered a cost-effective alternative to the HP test and treat strategy for the initial evaluation of patients with suspected peptic ulcer disease.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73722/1/j.1572-0241.2000.01837.x.pd
- …