Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities

Background: Road safety targets are widely used and provide a basis for evaluating progress in road safety outcomes against a quantified goal. In Australia, a reduction in fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a public policy objective: a national target of no more than 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010 was set in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress Australia and its states and territories have made in reducing RTC fatalities, and to estimate when the 2010 target may be reached by the jurisdictions. Methods. Following a descriptive analysis, univariate time-series models estimate past trends in fatality rates over recent decades. Data for differing time periods are analysed and different trend specifications estimated. Preferred models were selected on the basis of statistical criteria and the period covered by the data. The results of preferred regressions are used to determine out-of-sample forecasts of when the national target may be attained by the jurisdictions. Though there are limitations with the time series approach used, inadequate data precluded the estimation of a full causal/structural model. Results: Statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971 were found for all jurisdictions with the national rate decreasing on average, 3% per year since 1992. However the gains have varied across time and space, with percent changes in fatality rates ranging from an 8% increase in New South Wales 1972-1981 to a 46% decrease in Queensland 1982-1991. Based on an estimate of past trends, it is possible that the target set for 2010 may not be reached nationally, until 2016. Unsurprisingly, the analysis indicated a range of outcomes for the respective state/territory jurisdictions though these results should be interpreted with caution due to different assumptions and length of data. Conclusions: Results indicate that while Australia has been successful over recent decades in reducing RTC mortality, an important gap between aspirations and achievements remains. Moreover, unless there are fairly radical ("trend-breaking") changes in the factors that affect the incidence of RTC fatalities, deaths from RTCs are likely to remain above the national target in some areas of Australia, for years to come

Trachoma: protective and pathogenic ocular immune responses to Chlamydia trachomatis.

Trachoma, caused by Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct), is the leading infectious blinding disease worldwide. Chronic conjunctival inflammation develops in childhood and leads to eyelid scarring and blindness in adulthood. The immune response to Ct provides only partial protection against re-infection, which can be frequent. Moreover, the immune response is central to the development of scarring pathology, leading to loss of vision. Here we review the current literature on both protective and pathological immune responses in trachoma. The resolution of Ct infection in animal models is IFNγ-dependent, involving Th1 cells, but whether this is the case in human ocular infection still needs to be confirmed. An increasing number of studies indicate that innate immune responses arising from the epithelium and other innate immune cells, along with changes in matrix metalloproteinase activity, are important in the development of tissue damage and scarring. Current trachoma control measures, which are centred on repeated mass antibiotic treatment of populations, are logistically challenging and have the potential to drive antimicrobial resistance. A trachoma vaccine would offer significant advantages. However, limited understanding of the mechanisms of both protective immunity and immunopathology to Ct remain barriers to vaccine development

Oil prices and interstate conflict

Anecdotal evidence suggests that high oil prices embolden oil-rich states to behave more aggressively. This article contends that arguments linking oil-exporter status to interstate conflict are implicitly price contingent, and tests this via a reanalysis of works by Colgan and Weeks. It finds a contingent effect of oil prices on interstate disputes, with high oil prices associated with significant increases in dispute behavior in petrostates, for which oil exports constitute more than 10% of GDP, while having a null effect in non-petrostates. Directed-dyadic tests indicate that this is due to petrostates initiating disputes, rather than becoming more attractive targets for conquest or coercion

Is skill more important than luck in explaining fish catches?

Technical efficiency, Fishing, Panel data,

Inward FDI and demand for skills in manufacturing firms in Sweden

Foreign ownership, Skill upgrading, Wage differentials, F23, J23, J31,