International trends in the rate of logistic mortality increase

Meeting Theme: Are sex differences in health expectancy a social issue?BACKGROUND: Thatcher et al. (2010) used the simple logistic model with two parameters, which is known to fit data on old-age mortality well (Thatcher 1999), to investigate the old-age mortality compression and estimated the rate of logistic mortality increase, denoted by b, for ages 70-90. They concluded that if logit m(x) tends to fall faster at younger ages, then the slope b of the logit line will become steeper and mortality compression will occur. In this paper, we aim to estimate the rate of logistic mortality increase, denoted by b, for ages 70-90 in 23 countries with good and acceptable quality of data from Human Mortality Database and examine whether there is a universal trend in b. METHODS: We adopt a special case of the logistic model of mortality, which has only two parameters as does the Lexis model, and it is usually written in the form of model (1) μ(x) = a ebx / (1 + a ebx) (1) RESULTS: Our results show that the rate of logistic increase has steadily risen for females and males from about 0.10 in the 1950s to about 0.13 in recent years for most established market-economy countries in Europe as shown in group A (19 European countries). Among males, the value of parameter b is about 0.02 smaller than that for females and the rate of logistic mortality increase always lags behind females about 20 years. However, for Japanese females, although the increase was similar to the common pattern from 0.10 in 1947 to 0.13 in 1984, then the value of parameter b reached the highest 0.14 and became levelling off in the decade 1984-1995. Afterwards, it reverted to the level of 1984. In Canada, b increased at a relatively slower pace from 0.10 in 1950 to 0.12 in 2006 among females, whereas in the US the value of b tended to stay at 0.10-0.11 throughout the whole period 1921-2006. In Australia, b for females fluctuated around 0.10-0.11 before 1980, then a noticeable increase was observed from 0.12 in 1980 to 0.14 in 2007. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the rate of logistic increase has steadily risen for females and males from about 0.10 in the 1950s to about 0.13 in recent years for most established market-economy countries. Deviant patterns such as slow increase, plateau and decrease are observed for some periods in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Japan and the USA. Possible reasons for those dominant and deviant trends are discussed.postprin

Centenarians today: New insights on selection from the 5-COOP study

The number of oldest old grew tremendously over the past few decades. However, recent studies have disclosed that the pace of increase strongly varies among countries. The present study aims to specify the level of mortality selection among the nonagenarians and centenarians living currently in five low mortality countries, Denmark, France, Japan, Switzerland, and Sweden, part of the 5-Country Oldest Old Project (5-COOP). All data come from the Human Mortality Database, except for the number of centenarians living in Japan. We disclosed three levels of mortality selection, a milder level in Japan, a stronger level in Denmark and Sweden and an intermediary level in France and Switzerland. These divergences offer an opportunity to study the existence of a trade-off between the level of mortality selection and the functional health status of the oldest old survivors which will be seized by the 5-COOP project. © 2010 Jean-Marie Robine et al.published_or_final_versio

Contribution of Chronic Conditions to the Disability Burden across Smoking Categories in Middle-Aged Adults, Belgium

Introduction : Smoking is considered the single most important preventable cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, contributing to increased incidence and severity of disabling conditions. The aim of this study was to assess the contribution of chronic conditions to the disability burden across smoking categories in middle-aged adults in Belgium. Methods : Data from 10,224 individuals aged 40 to 60 years who participated in the 1997, 2001, 2004, or 2008 Health Interview Surveys in Belgium were used. Smoking status was defined as never, former (cessation >= 2 years), former (cessation = 20 cigarettes/day). To attribute disability to chronic conditions, binomial additive hazards models were fitted separately for each smoking category adjusted for gender, except for former (cessation <2 years) and occasional light smokers due to the small sample size. Results : An increasing trend in the disability prevalence was observed across smoking categories in men (never = 4.8%, former (cessation >= 2 years) = 5.8%, daily light = 7.8%, daily heavy = 10.7%) and women (never = 7.6%, former (cessation >= 2 years) = 8.0%, daily light = 10.2%, daily heavy = 12.0%). Musculoskeletal conditions showed a substantial contribution to the disability burden in men and women across all smoking categories. Other important contributors were depression and cardiovascular diseases in never smokers; depression, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes in former smokers (cessation >= 2 years); chronic respiratory diseases, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases in daily light smokers; cardiovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases in men and depression and diabetes in women daily heavy smokers. Conclusions : Beyond the well-known effect of smoking on mortality, our findings showed an increasing trend of the disability prevalence and different contributors to the disability burden across smoking categories. This information can be useful from a public health perspective to define strategies to reduce disability in Belgium

Budding yeast ATM/ATR control meiotic double-strand break (DSB) levels by down-regulating Rec114, an essential component of the DSB-machinery

An essential feature of meiosis is Spo11 catalysis of programmed DNA double strand breaks (DSBs). Evidence suggests that the number of DSBs generated per meiosis is genetically determined and that this ability to maintain a pre-determined DSB level, or "DSB homeostasis", might be a property of the meiotic program. Here, we present direct evidence that Rec114, an evolutionarily conserved essential component of the meiotic DSB-machinery, interacts with DSB hotspot DNA, and that Tel1 and Mec1, the budding yeast ATM and ATR, respectively, down-regulate Rec114 upon meiotic DSB formation through phosphorylation. Mimicking constitutive phosphorylation reduces the interaction between Rec114 and DSB hotspot DNA, resulting in a reduction and/or delay in DSB formation. Conversely, a non-phosphorylatable rec114 allele confers a genome-wide increase in both DSB levels and in the interaction between Rec114 and the DSB hotspot DNA. These observations strongly suggest that Tel1 and/or Mec1 phosphorylation of Rec114 following Spo11 catalysis down-regulates DSB formation by limiting the interaction between Rec114 and DSB hotspots. We also present evidence that Ndt80, a meiosis specific transcription factor, contributes to Rec114 degradation, consistent with its requirement for complete cessation of DSB formation. Loss of Rec114 foci from chromatin is associated with homolog synapsis but independent of Ndt80 or Tel1/Mec1 phosphorylation. Taken together, we present evidence for three independent ways of regulating Rec114 activity, which likely contribute to meiotic DSBs-homeostasis in maintaining genetically determined levels of breaks

Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

In this work the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1°C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e. when UTCI is above 26°C and 32°C. The UTCI’s ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health

Gender differences in health of EU10 and EU15 populations: the double burden of EU10 men

This study compares gender differences in Healthy Life Years (HLY) and unhealthy life years (ULY) between the original (EU15) and new member states (EU10). Based on the number of deaths, population and prevalence of activity limitations from the Statistics of Living and Income Conditions Survey (SILC) survey, we calculated HLY and ULY for the EU10 and EU15 in 2006 with the Sullivan method. We used decomposition analysis to assess the contributions of mortality and disability and age to gender differences in HLY and ULY. HLY at age 15 for women in the EU10 were 3.1 years more than those for men at the same age, whereas HLY did not differ by gender in the EU15. In both populations ULY at age 15 for women exceeded those for men by 5.5 years. Decomposition showed that EU10 women had more HLY because higher disability in women only partially offset (−0.8 years) the effect of lower mortality (+3.9 years). In the EU15 women’s higher disability prevalence almost completely offset women’s lower mortality. The 5.3 fewer ULY in EU10 men than in EU10 women mainly reflected higher male mortality (4.5 years), while the fewer ULY in EU15 men than in EU15 women reflected both higher male mortality (2.9 years) and higher female disability (2.6 years). The absence of a clear gender gap in HLY in the EU15 thus masked important gender differences in mortality and disability. The similar size of the gender gap in ULY in the EU-10 and EU-15 masked the more unfavourable health situation of EU10 men, in particular the much stronger and younger mortality disadvantage in combination with the virtually absent disability advantage below age 65 in men

Trends in healthy life expectancy in Hong Kong SAR 1996–2008

Although Hong Kong has one of the best life expectancy (LE) records in the world, second only to Japan for women, we know very little about the changes in the health status of the older adult population. Our article aims to provide a better understanding of trends in both chronic morbidity and disability for older men and women. The authors compute chronic morbidity-free and disability-free life expectancy and the proportion of both in relation to total LE using the Sullivan method to examine whether Hong Kong older adults are experiencing a compression of morbidity and disability and whether there is any gender difference in relation to mortality and morbidity. The results of this study show that Hong Kong women tend to outlive Hong Kong men but are also more likely to suffer from a ‘double disadvantage’, namely more years of life with more chronic morbidity and disability. There has also been a significant expansion of chronic morbidity, as chronic morbidity-free life expectancy (CMFLE) decreased substantially for both genders from 1996 to 2008. Although disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) increased during this period, it increased at a slower pace compared to LE. The proportion of life without chronic morbidity also declined remarkably during these 12 years. Among the advanced ages, the proportion of remaining life in good health without disability has decreased since 1996, indicating a relative expansion of disability

Contribution of chronic conditions to functional limitations using a multinomial outcome: results for the older population in Belgium and Brazil

Background: The global phenomenon of population ageing is creating new challenges in both high and middle income countries, as functional limitations are expected to increase with age. The attribution method has been proposed to identify which conditions contribute most to disability using cross-sectional data. Although the original method was based on binary outcomes, we recently proposed an extension to multinomial responses, since different disability levels are often investigated in surveys. This is the first application of the extended method to evaluate differences in the contribution of chronic conditions to functional limitations in the older population of Brazil and Belgium. Methods: Representative data from individuals aged ≥65 years who participated in the 2008 or 2013 Health Interview Surveys in Belgium (N = 4521) or in the 2008 National Household Sample Survey in Brazil (N = 28,437) were analysed. Individuals were classified as without, moderate or severe functional limitations, based on three activities of daily living: eating, showering, and toileting. Six chronic conditions common to the surveys - diabetes, heart diseases, musculoskeletal conditions, depression, chronic respiratory diseases, and cancer - were included in the analysis. Separate multinomial additive hazards models by gender for each country were fitted. Results: The prevalence of moderate functional limitations was larger in men in Brazil (8.4%) compared to Belgium (6.0%) and similar in women (approximately 12.0%). Conversely, the severe prevalence in men was similar in the two countries (around 8.0%) and higher in women from Belgium (16.6%) than from Brazil (9.1%). Musculoskeletal conditions were the main contributors to the prevalence of functional limitations in men and women in Belgium but only in men and women with moderate functional limitations in Brazil. Depression and heart diseases contributed most to the severe prevalence of functional limitations in men and women in Brazil, respectively. Conclusions: Our findings provide a better understanding of differences in the prevalence of different levels of functional limitations in Brazil and Belgium. These differences can be related to differences in socioeconomic conditions, health care access and quality, disease diagnosis, stage of epidemiology transition, life expectancy, and the prevalence of lifestyle risk factors in the two countries

Fitness Consequences of Advanced Ancestral Age over Three Generations in Humans

A rapid rise in age at parenthood in contemporary societies has increased interest in reports of higher prevalence of de novo mutations and health problems in individuals with older fathers, but the fitness consequences of such age effects over several generations remain untested. Here, we use extensive pedigree data on seven pre-industrial Finnish populations to show how the ages of ancestors for up to three generations are associated with fitness traits. Individuals whose fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers fathered their lineage on average under age 30 were ~13% more likely to survive to adulthood than those whose ancestors fathered their lineage at over 40 years. In addition, females had a lower probability of marriage if their male ancestors were older. These findings are consistent with an increase of the number of accumulated de novo mutations with male age, suggesting that deleterious mutations acquired from recent ancestors may be a substantial burden to fitness in humans. However, possible non-mutational explanations for the observed associations are also discussed