Earnings and hindsight bias: An experimental study

We conduct prediction experiments where subjects estimate, and later reconstruct probabilities of upcoming events. Subjects also value state-contingent claims on these events. We find that hindsight bias is greater for events where subjects earned more money

Expression of Drug Targets in Patients Treated with Sorafenib, Carboplatin and Paclitaxel

Introduction: Sorafenib, a multitarget kinase inhibitor, targets members of the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway and VEGFR kinases. Here we assessed the association between expression of sorafenib targets and biomarkers of taxane sensitivity and response to therapy in pre-treatment tumors from patients enrolled in ECOG 2603, a phase III comparing sorafenib, carboplatin and paclitaxel (SCP) to carboplatin, paclitaxel and placebo (CP). Methods: Using a method of automated quantitative analysis (AQUA) of in situ protein expression, we quantified expression of VEGF-R2, VEGF-R1, VEGF-R3, FGF-R1, PDGF-Rβ, c-Kit, B-Raf, C-Raf, MEK1, ERK1/2, STMN1, MAP2, EB1 and Bcl-2 in pretreatment specimens from 263 patients. Results: An association was found between high FGF-R1 and VEGF-R1 and increased progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in our combined cohort (SCP and CP arms). Expression of FGF-R1 and VEGF-R1 was higher in patients who responded to therapy ((CR+PR) vs. (SD+PD+ un-evaluable)). Conclusions: In light of the absence of treatment effect associated with sorafenib, the association found between FGF-R1 and VEGF-R1 expression and OS, PFS and response might reflect a predictive biomarker signature for carboplatin/paclitaxel-based therapy. Seeing that carboplatin and pacitaxel are now widely used for this disease, corroboration in another cohort might enable us to improve the therapeutic ratio of this regimen. © 2013 Jilaveanu et al

Benefits of biomarker selection and clinico-pathological covariate inclusion in breast cancer prognostic models

Introduction: Multi-marker molecular assays have impacted management of early stage breast cancer, facilitating adjuvant chemotherapy decisions. We generated prognostic models that incorporate protein-based molecular markers and clinico-pathological variables to improve survival prediction. Methods: We used a quantitative immunofluorescence method to study protein expression of 14 markers included in the Oncotype DX™ assay on a 638 breast cancer patient cohort with 15-year follow-up. We performed cross-validation analyses to assess performance of multivariate Cox models consisting of these markers and standard clinico-pathological covariates, using an average time-dependent Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and compared it to nested Cox models obtained by robust backward selection procedures. Results: A prognostic index derived from of a multivariate Cox regression model incorporating molecular and clinico-pathological covariates (nodal status, tumor size, nuclear grade, and age) is superior to models based on molecular studies alone or clinico-pathological covariates alone. Performance of this composite model can be further improved using feature selection techniques to prune variables. When stratifying patients by Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI), the most prognostic markers in high and low NPI groups differed. Similarly, for the node-negative, hormone receptor-positive sub-population, we derived a compact model with three clinico-pathological variables and two protein markers that was superior to the full model. Conclusions: Prognostic models that include both molecular and clinico-pathological covariates can be more accurate than models based on either set of features alone. Furthermore, feature selection can decrease the number of molecular variables needed to predict outcome, potentially resulting in less expensive assays.This work was supported by a grant from the Susan G Komen Foundation (to YK)

UNCLES: Method for the identification of genes differentially consistently co-expressed in a specific subset of datasets

Background: Collective analysis of the increasingly emerging gene expression datasets are required. The recently proposed binarisation of consensus partition matrices (Bi-CoPaM) method can combine clustering results from multiple datasets to identify the subsets of genes which are consistently co-expressed in all of the provided datasets in a tuneable manner. However, results validation and parameter setting are issues that complicate the design of such methods. Moreover, although it is a common practice to test methods by application to synthetic datasets, the mathematical models used to synthesise such datasets are usually based on approximations which may not always be sufficiently representative of real datasets. Results: Here, we propose an unsupervised method for the unification of clustering results from multiple datasets using external specifications (UNCLES). This method has the ability to identify the subsets of genes consistently co-expressed in a subset of datasets while being poorly co-expressed in another subset of datasets, and to identify the subsets of genes consistently co-expressed in all given datasets. We also propose the M-N scatter plots validation technique and adopt it to set the parameters of UNCLES, such as the number of clusters, automatically. Additionally, we propose an approach for the synthesis of gene expression datasets using real data profiles in a way which combines the ground-truth-knowledge of synthetic data and the realistic expression values of real data, and therefore overcomes the problem of faithfulness of synthetic expression data modelling. By application to those datasets, we validate UNCLES while comparing it with other conventional clustering methods, and of particular relevance, biclustering methods. We further validate UNCLES by application to a set of 14 real genome-wide yeast datasets as it produces focused clusters that conform well to known biological facts. Furthermore, in-silico-based hypotheses regarding the function of a few previously unknown genes in those focused clusters are drawn. Conclusions: The UNCLES method, the M-N scatter plots technique, and the expression data synthesis approach will have wide application for the comprehensive analysis of genomic and other sources of multiple complex biological datasets. Moreover, the derived in-silico-based biological hypotheses represent subjects for future functional studies.The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (Grant Reference Number RP-PG-0310-1004)

A Multidisciplinary survey on controversies in the use of EUS-guided FNA: assessing perspectives of surgeons, oncologists and gastroenterologists

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>EUS-guided FNA can help diagnose and differentiate between various pancreatic and other lesions.</p> <p>The aim of this study was to compare approaches among involved/relevant physicians to the controversies surrounding the use of FNA in EUS.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A five-case survey was developed, piloted, and validated. It was collected from a total of 101 physicians, who were all either gastroenterologists (GIs), surgeons or oncologists. The survey compared the management strategies chosen by members of these relevant disciplines regarding EUS-guided FNA.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For CT operable T2NOM0 pancreatic tumors the research demonstrated variance as to whether to undertake EUS-guided FNA, at p < 0.05. For inoperable pancreatic tumors 66.7% of oncologists, 62.2% of surgeons and 79.1% of GIs opted for FNA (p < 0.05). For cystic pancreatic lesions, oncologists were more likely to send patients to surgery without FNA. For stable simple pancreatic cysts (23 mm), most physicians (66.67%) did not recommend FNA. For a submucosal gastric 19 mm lesion, 63.2% of surgeons recommended FNA, vs. 90.0% of oncologists (p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Controversies as to ideal application of EUS-FNA persist. Optimal guidelines should reflect the needs and concerns of the multidisciplinary team who treat patients who need EUS-FNA. Multi-specialty meetings assembled to manage patients with these disorders may be enlightening and may help develop consensus.</p

A pragmatic cluster randomised trial evaluating three implementation interventions

Background Implementation research is concerned with bridging the gap between evidence and practice through the study of methods to promote the uptake of research into routine practice. Good quality evidence has been summarised into guideline recommendations to show that peri-operative fasting times could be considerably shorter than patients currently experience. The objective of this trial was to evaluate the effectiveness of three strategies for the implementation of recommendations about peri-operative fasting. Methods A pragmatic cluster randomised trial underpinned by the PARIHS framework was conducted during 2006 to 2009 with a national sample of UK hospitals using time series with mixed methods process evaluation and cost analysis. Hospitals were randomised to one of three interventions: standard dissemination (SD) of a guideline package, SD plus a web-based resource championed by an opinion leader, and SD plus plan-do-study-act (PDSA). The primary outcome was duration of fluid fast prior to induction of anaesthesia. Secondary outcomes included duration of food fast, patients' experiences, and stakeholders' experiences of implementation, including influences. ANOVA was used to test differences over time and interventions. Results Nineteen acute NHS hospitals participated. Across timepoints, 3,505 duration of fasting observations were recorded. No significant effect of the interventions was observed for either fluid or food fasting times. The effect size was 0.33 for the web-based intervention compared to SD alone for the change in fluid fasting and was 0.12 for PDSA compared to SD alone. The process evaluation showed different types of impact, including changes to practices, policies, and attitudes. A rich picture of the implementation challenges emerged, including inter-professional tensions and a lack of clarity for decision-making authority and responsibility. Conclusions This was a large, complex study and one of the first national randomised controlled trials conducted within acute care in implementation research. The evidence base for fasting practice was accepted by those participating in this study and the messages from it simple; however, implementation and practical challenges influenced the interventions' impact. A set of conditions for implementation emerges from the findings of this study, which are presented as theoretically transferable propositions that have international relevance. Trial registration ISRCTN18046709 - Peri-operative Implementation Study Evaluation (POISE

Mild cognitive impairment is associated with poor physical function but not bone structure or density in late adulthood:Findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study

Mini Abstract This study investigated the association between mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and physical function and bone health in older adults. MCI was associated with poor physical performance but not bone mineral density or bone microarchitecture. Abstract Purpose: Cross-sectional study to investigate the association between mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and physical performance, and bone health, in a community-dwelling cohort of older adults. Methods: Cognitive function of 222 men and 221 women (mean age 75.5 and 75.8 years in men and women, respectively) was assessed by the Strawbridge questionnaire and Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE). Participants underwent dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), peripheral-quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) and high-resolution peripheral-quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) scans to assess their bone density, strength and microarchitecture. Their physical function was assessed and a physical performance (PP) score was recorded. Results: 11.8% of women and 8.1% of men in the study were cognitive impaired on the MMSE (score&lt;24). 24% of women were deemed cognitively impaired on the Strawbridge questionnaire, compared to 22.3% of men. Cognitive impairment on the Strawbridge questionnaire was associated with poorer physical performance score in men but not women in the unadjusted analysis. MMSE &lt;24 was strongly associated with the risk of low physical performance in men (OR 12.9, 95% CI 1.67, 99.8, p=0.01) Higher MMSE score was associated with better physical performance in both sexes. Poorer cognitive function, whether assessed by the Strawbridge questionnaire, or by MMSE score, was not associated with bone density, shape or microarchitecture, in either sex. Conclusion: MCI in older adults was associated with poor physical performance, but not bone density, shape or microarchitecture

Efficacy and safety of lifileucel, a one-time autologous tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) cell therapy, in patients with advanced melanoma after progression on immune checkpoint inhibitors and targeted therapies: pooled analysis of consecutive cohorts of the C-144-01 study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with advanced melanoma have limited treatment options after progression on immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). Lifileucel, a one-time autologous tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) cell therapy, demonstrated an investigator-assessed objective response rate (ORR) of 36% in 66 patients who progressed after ICI and targeted therapy. Herein, we report independent review committee (IRC)-assessed outcomes of 153 patients treated with lifileucel in a large multicenter Phase 2 cell therapy trial in melanoma. METHODS: Eligible patients had advanced melanoma that progressed after ICI and targeted therapy, where appropriate. Melanoma lesions were resected (resected tumor diameter ≥1.5 cm) and shipped to a central good manufacturing practice facility for 22-day lifileucel manufacturing. Patients received a non-myeloablative lymphodepletion regimen, a single lifileucel infusion, and up to six doses of high-dose interleukin-2. The primary endpoint was IRC-assessed ORR (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors V.1.1). RESULTS: The Full Analysis Set consisted of 153 patients treated with lifileucel, including longer-term follow-up on the 66 patients previously reported. Patients had received a median of 3.0 lines of prior therapy (81.7% received both anti-programmed cell death protein 1 and anti-cytotoxic lymphocyte-associated protein 4) and had high disease burden at baseline (median target lesion sum of diameters (SOD): 97.8 mm; lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) >upper limit of normal: 54.2%). ORR was 31.4% (95% CI: 24.1% to 39.4%), with 8 complete responses and 40 partial responses. Median duration of response was not reached at a median study follow-up of 27.6 months, with 41.7% of the responses maintained for ≥18 months. Median overall survival and progression-free survival were 13.9 and 4.1 months, respectively. Multivariable analyses adjusted for Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status demonstrated that elevated LDH and target lesion SOD >median were independently correlated with ORR (p=0.008); patients with normal LDH and SOD <median had greater likelihood of response than those with either (OR=2.08) or both (OR=4.42) risk factors. The most common grade 3/4 treatment-emergent adverse events (≥30%) were thrombocytopenia (76.9%), anemia (50.0%), and febrile neutropenia (41.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Investigational lifileucel demonstrated clinically meaningful activity in heavily pretreated patients with advanced melanoma and high tumor burden. Durable responses and a favorable safety profile support the potential benefit of one-time lifileucel TIL cell therapy in patients with limited treatment options in ICI-refractory disease

Controversies concerning the diagnosis and treatment of bipolar disorder in children

This commentary grows out of an interdisciplinary workshop focused on controversies surrounding the diagnosis and treatment of bipolar disorder (BP) in children. Although debate about the occurrence and frequency of BP in children is more than 50 years old, it increased in the mid 1990s when researchers adapted the DSM account of bipolar symptoms to diagnose children. We offer a brief history of the debate from the mid 90s through the present, ending with current efforts to distinguish between a small number of children whose behaviors closely fit DSM criteria for BP, and a significantly larger number of children who have been receiving a BP diagnosis but whose behaviors do not closely fit those criteria. We agree with one emerging approach, which gives part or all of that larger number of children a new diagnosis called Severe Mood Dysregulation or Temper Dysregulation Disorder with Dysphoria