Causal inference for long-term survival in randomised trials with treatment switching: Should re-censoring be applied when estimating counterfactual survival times?

Treatment switching often has a crucial impact on estimates of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new oncology treatments. Rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTM) and two-stage estimation (TSE) methods estimate ‘counterfactual’ (i.e. had there been no switching) survival times and incorporate re-censoring to guard against informative censoring in the counterfactual dataset. However, re-censoring causes a loss of longer term survival information which is problematic when estimates of long-term survival effects are required, as is often the case for health technology assessment decision making. We present a simulation study designed to investigate applications of the RPSFTM and TSE with and without re-censoring, to determine whether re-censoring should always be recommended within adjustment analyses. We investigate a context where switching is from the control group onto the experimental treatment in scenarios with varying switch proportions, treatment effect sizes and time-dependencies, disease severity and switcher prognosis. Methods were assessed according to their estimation of control group restricted mean survival (that would be observed in the absence of switching) at the end of the simulated trial follow-up. We found that RPSFTM and TSE analyses which incorporated re-censoring usually produced negative bias (i.e. under-estimating control group restricted mean survival and therefore over-estimating the treatment effect). RPSFTM and TSE analyses that did not incorporate re-censoring consistently produced positive bias (i.e. under-estimating the treatment effect) which was often smaller in magnitude than the bias associated with the re-censored analyses. We believe that analyses should be conducted with and without re-censoring, as this may provide decision makers with useful information on where the true treatment effect is likely to lie. Analyses that incorporate re-censoring should not always represent the default approach when the objective is to estimate long-term survival times and treatment effects on long-term survival

Assessing methods for dealing with treatment switching in clinical trials: A follow-up simulation study

When patients randomised to the control group of a randomised controlled trial are allowed to switch onto the experimental treatment, intention-to-treat analyses of the treatment effect are confounded because the separation of randomised groups is lost. Previous research has investigated statistical methods that aim to estimate the treatment effect that would have been observed had this treatment switching not occurred and has demonstrated their performance in a limited set of scenarios. Here, we investigate these methods in a new range of realistic scenarios, allowing conclusions to be made based upon a broader evidence base. We simulated randomised controlled trials incorporating prognosis-related treatment switching and investigated the impact of sample size, reduced switching proportions, disease severity, and alternative data-generating models on the performance of adjustment methods, assessed through a comparison of bias, mean squared error, and coverage, related to the estimation of true restricted mean survival in the absence of switching in the control group. Rank preserving structural failure time models, inverse probability of censoring weights, and two-stage methods consistently produced less bias than the intentionto-treat analysis. The switching proportion was confirmed to be a key determinant of bias: sample size and censoring proportion were relatively less important. It is critical to determine the size of the treatment effect in terms of an acceleration factor (rather than a hazard ratio) to provide information on the likely bias associated with rank-preserving structural failure time model adjustments. In general, inverse probability of censoring weight methods are more volatile than other adjustment methods

Simulating quantum statistics with entangled photons: a continuous transition from bosons to fermions

In contrast to classical physics, quantum mechanics divides particles into two classes-bosons and fermions-whose exchange statistics dictate the dynamics of systems at a fundamental level. In two dimensions quasi-particles known as 'anyons' exhibit fractional exchange statistics intermediate between these two classes. The ability to simulate and observe behaviour associated to fundamentally different quantum particles is important for simulating complex quantum systems. Here we use the symmetry and quantum correlations of entangled photons subjected to multiple copies of a quantum process to directly simulate quantum interference of fermions, bosons and a continuum of fractional behaviour exhibited by anyons. We observe an average similarity of 93.6\pm0.2% between an ideal model and experimental observation. The approach generalises to an arbitrary number of particles and is independent of the statistics of the particles used, indicating application with other quantum systems and large scale application.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Effect of Body Mass Index on pregnancy outcomes in nulliparous women delivering singleton babies

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Long-term results and recurrence patterns from SCALOP: a phase II randomised trial of gemcitabine- or capecitabine-based chemoradiation for locally advanced pancreatic cancer

background: SCALOP, a randomised, phase II trial, tested the activity and safety of gemcitabine (GEM)-based and capecitabine (CAP)-based chemoradiation (CRT) for locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). Here we present the long-term outcomes. methods: Eligibility: histologically proven LAPC less than or equal to7 cm. Following 12 weeks of induction GEMCAP chemotherapy (three cycles: GEM 1000 mg m−2 days 1, 8, 15; CAP 830 mg m−2 days 1–21 q28 days) patients with stable/responding disease, tumour less than or equal to6 cm, and WHO Performance Status 0–1 were randomised to receive one cycle GEMCAP followed by CAP (830 mg m−2 b.d. on weekdays only) or GEM (300 mg m−2 weekly) with radiation (50.4 Gy per 28 fractions). results: One-hundred fourteen patients (28 UK centres) were registered between 24 December 2009 and 25 October 2011, and 74 were randomised (CAP-RT=36; GEM-RT=38). At the time of this analysis, 105 of the 114 patients had died and the surviving 9 patients had been followed up for a median of 10.9 months (IQR: 2.9–18.7). Updated median OS was 17.6 months (95% CI: 14.6–22.7) in the CAP-CRT arm and 14.6 months (95% CI: 11.1–16.0) in the GEM-CRT arm (intention-to-treat adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 0.68 (95% CI: 0.38–1.21, P=0.185)); median progression-free survival (PFS) was 12.0 months (95% CI: 10.0–15.2) in the CAP-CRT arm and 10.4 months (95% CI: 8.8–12.7) in the GEM-CRT arm (intention-to-treat adjusted HR: 0.60 (95% CI: 0.32–1.14, P=0.120)). In baseline multivariable model, age greater than or equal to65 years, better performance status, CA19.9<613 IU l−1, and shorter tumour diameter predicted improved OS. CAP-CRT, age greater than or equal to65 years, better performance status, CA19.9 <46 IU ml−1 predicted improved OS and PFS in the pre-radiotherapy model. Nine-month PFS was highly predictive of OS. conclusions: CAP-CRT remains the superior regimen. SCALOP showed that patients with CA19.9 <46 IU ml−1 after induction chemotherapy are more likely to benefit from CRT

Psychometric Properties of an Arabic Pain Anxiety Symptoms Scale-20 (PASS-20) in Healthy Volunteers and Patients Attending a Physiotherapy Clinic.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to cross-culturally adapt the PASS-20 questionnaire for use in Libya. METHODS: Participants were 71 patients (42 women) attending the physiotherapy clinic, Ibn Sina Hospital, Sirt, Libya for management of persistent pain and 137 healthy unpaid undergraduate students (52 women) from the University of Sirt, Libya. The English PASS-20 was translated into Arabic. Patients completed the Arabic PASS-20 and the Arabic Pain Rating Scales on two occasions separated by a 14-day interval. Healthy participants completed the Arabic PASS-20 on one occasion. RESULTS: The internal consistency (ICC) for pain patient and healthy participant samples yielded a good reliability for the total score, cognitive anxiety, fear of pain, and physiological anxiety. The test-retest reliability of the Arabic PASS-20 score showed high reliability for the total score (ICC = 0.93, p < 0.001), escape/avoidance (ICC = 0.93, p < 0.001), fear of pain (ICC = 0.94, p < 0.001), and physiological anxiety subscales (ICC = 0.96, p < 0.001) and good reliability for the cognitive anxiety (ICC = 0.85, p < 0.001). Inspection of the Promax rotation showed that each factor comprised of five items were consistent with the theoretical constructs of the original PASS-20 subscales. CONCLUSION: The Arabic PASS-20 retained internal consistency and reliability with the original English version and can be used to measure pain anxiety symptoms in both pain and healthy individual samples in Libya

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

Resection of the liver for colorectal carcinoma metastases - A multi-institutional study of long-term survivors

In this review of a collected series of patients undergoing hepatic resection for colorectal metastases, 100 patients were found to have survived greater than five years from the time of resection. Of these 100 long-term survivors, 71 remain disease-free through the last follow-up, 19 recurred prior to five years, and ten recurred after five years. Patient characteristics that may have contributed to survival were examined. Procedures performed included five trisegmentectomies, 32 lobectomies, 16 left lateral segmentectomies, and 45 wedge resections. The margin of resection was recorded in 27 patients, one of whom had a positive margin, nine of whom had a less than or equal to 1-cm margin, and 17 of whom had a greater than 1-cm margin. Eighty-one patients had a solitary metastasis to the liver, 11 patients had two metastases, one patient had three metastases, and four patients had four metastases. Thirty patients had Stage C primary carcinoma, 40 had Stage B primary carcinoma, and one had Stage A primarycarcinoma. The disease-free interval from the time of colon resection to the time of liver resection was less than one year in 65 patients, and greater than one year in 34 patients. Three patients had bilobar metastases. Four of the patients had extrahepatic disease resected simultaneously with the liver resection. Though several contraindications to hepatic resection have been proposed in the past, five-year survival has been found in patients with extrahepatic disease resected simultaneously, patients with bilobar metastases, patients with multiple metastases, and patients with positive margins. Five-year disease-free survivors are also present in each of these subsets. It is concluded that five-year survival is possible in the presence of reported contraindications to resection, and therefore that the decision to resect the liver must be individualized. © 1988 American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons

Optimality criteria without constraint qualications for linear semidenite problems

We consider two closely related optimization problems: a problem of convex Semi- Infinite Programming with multidimensional index set and a linear problem of Semidefinite Programming. In study of these problems we apply the approach suggested in our recent paper [14] and based on the notions of immobile indices and their immobility orders. For the linear semidefinite problem, we define the subspace of immobile indices and formulate the first order optimality conditions in terms of a basic matrix of this subspace. These conditions are explicit, do not use constraint qualifications, and have the form of criterion. An algorithm determining a basis of the subspace of immobile indices in a finite number of steps is suggested. The optimality conditions obtained are compared with other known optimality conditions