Capturing Ecosystem Services, Stakeholders' Preferences and Trade-Offs in Coastal Aquaculture Decisions : A Bayesian Belief Network Application

Aquaculture activities are embedded in complex social-ecological systems. However, aquaculture development decisions have tended to be driven by revenue generation, failing to account for interactions with the environment and the full value of the benefits derived from services provided by local ecosystems. Trade-offs resulting from changes in ecosystem services provision and associated impacts on livelihoods are also often overlooked. This paper proposes an innovative application of Bayesian belief networks - influence diagrams - as a decision support system for mediating trade-offs arising from the development of shrimp aquaculture in Thailand. Senior experts were consulted (n = 12) and primary farm data on the economics of shrimp farming (n = 20) were collected alongside secondary information on ecosystem services, in order to construct and populate the network. Trade-offs were quantitatively assessed through the generation of a probabilistic impact matrix. This matrix captures nonlinearity and uncertainty and describes the relative performance and impacts of shrimp farming management scenarios on local livelihoods. It also incorporates export revenues and provision and value of ecosystem services such as coastal protection and biodiversity. This research shows that Bayesian belief modeling can support complex decision-making on pathways for sustainable coastal aquaculture development and thus contributes to the debate on the role of aquaculture in social-ecological resilience and economic development

Effects of host switching on gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar (L.)) under field conditions

Effects of various single and two species diets on the performance of gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar (L.)) were studied when this insect was reared from hatch to population on intact host trees in the field. The tree species used for this study were red oak ( Quercus rubra L.), white oak (Q. alba L.), bigtooth aspen ( Populus grandidentata Michaux), and trembling aspen ( P. tremuloides Michaux). These are commonly available host trees in the Lake States region. The study spanned two years and was performed at two different field sites in central Michigan. Conclusions drawn from this study include: (1) Large differences in gypsy moth growth and survival can occur even among diet sequences composed of favorable host species. (2) Larvae that spent their first two weeks feeding on red oak performed better during this time period than larvae on all other host species in terms of mean weight, mean relative growth rate (RGR), and mean level of larval development, while larvae on a first host of bigtooth aspen were ranked lowest in terms of mean weight, RGR, and level of larval development. (3) Combination diets do not seem to be inherently better or worse than diets composed of only a single species; rather, insect performance was affected by the types of host species eaten and the time during larval development that these host species were consumed instead of whether larvae ate single species diets or mixed species diets. (4) In diets composed of two host species, measures of gypsy moth performance are affected to different extents in the latter part of the season by the two different hosts; larval weights and development rates show continued effects of the first host fed upon while RGRs, mortality, and pupal weights are affected strongly by the second host type eaten. (5) Of the diets investigated in this study, early feeding on red oak followed by later feeding on an aspen, particularly trembling aspen, is most beneficial to insects in terms of attaining high levels of performance throughout their lives.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47802/1/442_2004_Article_BF00323144.pd

Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies