Fuzzy Bayesian inference for mapping vague and place-based regions: a case study of sectarian territory

The problem of mapping regions with socially-derived boundaries has been a topic of discussion in the GIS literature for many years. Fuzzy approaches have frequently been suggested as solutions, but none have been adopted. This is likely due to difficulties associated with determining suitable membership functions, which are often as arbitrary as the crisp boundaries that they seek to replace. This paper presents a novel approach to fuzzy geographical modelling that replaces the membership function with a possibility distribution that is estimated using Bayesian inference. In this method, data from multiple sources are combined to estimate the degree to which a given location is a member of a given set and the level of uncertainty associated with that estimate. The Fuzzy Bayesian Inference approach is demonstrated through a case study in which census data are combined with perceptual and behavioural evidence to model the territory of two segregated groups (Catholics and Protestants) in Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK. This novel method provides a robust empirical basis for the use of fuzzy models in GIS, and therefore has applications for mapping a range of socially-derived and otherwise vague boundaries

Maximising retention in a longitudinal study of genital Chlamydia trachomatis among young women in Australia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cohort studies are an important study design however they are difficult to implement, often suffer from poor retention, low participation and bias. The aims of this paper are to describe the methods used to recruit and retain young women in a longitudinal study and to explore factors associated with loss to follow up.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Chlamydia Incidence and Re-infection Rates Study (CIRIS) was a longitudinal study of Australian women aged 16 to 25 years recruited from primary health care clinics. They were followed up via the post at three-monthly intervals and required to return questionnaires and self collected vaginal swabs for chlamydia testing. The protocol was designed to maximise retention in the study and included using recruiting staff independent of the clinic staff, recruiting in private, regular communication with study staff, making the follow up as straightforward as possible and providing incentives and small gifts to engender good will.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The study recruited 66% of eligible women. Despite the nature of the study (sexual health) and the mobility of the women (35% moved address at least once), 79% of the women completed the final stage of the study after 12 months. Loss to follow up bias was associated with lower education level [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 0.7 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.5, 1.0)], recruitment from a sexual health centre as opposed to a general practice clinic [AHR: 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0, 2.7)] and previously testing positive for chlamydia [AHR: 0.8 (95% CI: 0.5, 1.0)]. No other factors such as age, numbers of sexual partners were associated with loss to follow up.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The methods used were considered effective for recruiting and retaining women in the study. Further research is needed to improve participation from less well-educated women.</p

Maximising retention in a longitudinal study of genital Chlamydia trachomatis among young women in Australia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cohort studies are an important study design however they are difficult to implement, often suffer from poor retention, low participation and bias. The aims of this paper are to describe the methods used to recruit and retain young women in a longitudinal study and to explore factors associated with loss to follow up.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Chlamydia Incidence and Re-infection Rates Study (CIRIS) was a longitudinal study of Australian women aged 16 to 25 years recruited from primary health care clinics. They were followed up via the post at three-monthly intervals and required to return questionnaires and self collected vaginal swabs for chlamydia testing. The protocol was designed to maximise retention in the study and included using recruiting staff independent of the clinic staff, recruiting in private, regular communication with study staff, making the follow up as straightforward as possible and providing incentives and small gifts to engender good will.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The study recruited 66% of eligible women. Despite the nature of the study (sexual health) and the mobility of the women (35% moved address at least once), 79% of the women completed the final stage of the study after 12 months. Loss to follow up bias was associated with lower education level [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 0.7 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.5, 1.0)], recruitment from a sexual health centre as opposed to a general practice clinic [AHR: 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0, 2.7)] and previously testing positive for chlamydia [AHR: 0.8 (95% CI: 0.5, 1.0)]. No other factors such as age, numbers of sexual partners were associated with loss to follow up.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The methods used were considered effective for recruiting and retaining women in the study. Further research is needed to improve participation from less well-educated women.</p

Telling partners about chlamydia: how acceptable are the new technologies?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Partner notification is accepted as a vital component in the control of chlamydia. However, in reality, many sexual partners of individuals diagnosed with chlamydia are never informed of their risk. The newer technologies of email and SMS have been used as a means of improving partner notification rates. This study explored the use and acceptability of different partner notification methods to help inform the development of strategies and resources to increase the number of partners notified.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with 40 people who were recently diagnosed with chlamydia from three sexual health centres and two general practices across three Australian jurisdictions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most participants chose to contact their partners either in person (56%) or by phone (44%). Only 17% chose email or SMS. Participants viewed face-to-face as the "gold standard" in partner notification because it demonstrated caring, respect and courage. Telephone contact, while considered insensitive by some, was often valued because it was quick, convenient and less confronting. Email was often seen as less personal while SMS was generally considered the least acceptable method for telling partners. There was also concern that emails and SMS could be misunderstood, not taken seriously or shown to others. Despite these, email and SMS were seen to be appropriate and useful in some circumstances. Letters, both from the patients or from their doctor, were viewed more favourably but were seldom used.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings suggest that many people diagnosed with chlamydia are reluctant to use the new technologies for partner notification, except in specific circumstances, and our efforts in developing partner notification resources may best be focused on giving patients the skills and confidence for personal interaction.</p

Association between respiratory tract diseases and secondhand smoke exposure among never smoking flight attendants: a cross-sectional survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Little is known about long-term adverse health consequences experienced by flight attendants exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) during the time smoking was allowed on airplanes. We undertook this study to evaluate the association between accumulated flight time in smoky airplane cabins and respiratory tract diseases in a cohort of never smoking flight attendants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a mailed survey in a cohort of flight attendants. Of 15,000 mailed questionnaires, 2053 (14%) were completed and returned. We excluded respondents with a personal history of smoking (n = 748) and non smokers with a history of respiratory tract diseases before the age of 18 years (n = 298). The remaining 1007 respondents form the study sample.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall study sample was predominantly white (86%) and female (89%), with a mean age of 54 years. Overall, 69.7% of the respondents were diagnosed with at least one respiratory tract disease. Among these respondents, 43.4% reported a diagnosis of sinusitis, 40.3% allergies, 30.8% bronchitis, 23.2% middle ear infections, 13.6% asthma, 13.4% hay fever, 12.5% pneumonia, and 2.0% chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. More hours in a smoky cabin were observed to be significantly associated with sinusitis (OR = 1.21; p = 0.024), middle ear infections (OR = 1.30; p = 0.006), and asthma (OR = 1.26; p = 0.042).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We observed a significant association between hours of smoky cabin exposure and self-reported reported sinusitis, middle ear infections, and asthma. Our findings suggest a dose-response between duration of SHS exposure and diseases of the respiratory tract. Our findings add additional evidence to the growing body of knowledge supporting the need for widespread implementation of clean indoor air policies to decrease the risk of adverse health consequences experienced by never smokers exposed to SHS.</p

From wing to wing: the persistence of long ecological interaction chains in less-disturbed ecosystems

Human impact on biodiversity usually is measured by reduction in species abundance or richness. Just as important, but much more difficult to discern, is the anthropogenic elimination of ecological interactions. Here we report on the persistence of a long ecological interaction chain linking diverse food webs and habitats in the near-pristine portions of a remote Pacific atoll. Using biogeochemical assays, animal tracking, and field surveys we show that seabirds roosting on native trees fertilize soils, increasing coastal nutrients and the abundance of plankton, thus attracting manta rays to native forest coastlines. Partnered observations conducted in regions of this atoll where native trees have been replaced by human propagated palms reveal that this complex interaction chain linking trees to mantas readily breaks down. Taken together these findings provide a compelling example of how anthropogenic disturbance may be contributing to widespread reductions in ecological interaction chain length, thereby isolating and simplifying ecosystems

Alterations in cognitive performance during passive hyperthermia are task dependent

The objectives of this study were to (1) assess the effect of passive heating upon attention and memory task performance, and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of the application of cold packs to the head on preserving these functions. Using a counterbalance design 16 subjects underwent three trials: a control (CON, 20°C, 40% rH), hot (HOT, 50°C, 50% rH) and hot with the head kept cool (HHC). In each condition, three attention tests and two memory tests were performed. Mean core, forehead and tympanic temperatures were all significantly higher (p< 0.05) during HOT (38.6° ±0.1°, 39.6° ±0.2° and 38.8°±0.1°C, respectively) and HHC (38°±0.2, 37.7°±0.3° and 37.7°C, respectively) than in CON (37.1°±0.6°, 33.3° ±0.2° and 35.9°±0.3°C, respectively). Results indicate that there was impairment in working memory with heat exposure (p < 0.05) without alteration in attentional processes. The regular application of cold packs only prevented the detrimental effect of hyperthermia on short-term memory. Our results show that impairments in cognitive function with passive hyperthermia and the beneficial effect of head cooling are task dependent and suggests that exposure to a hot environment is a competing variable to the cognitive processes

Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime