A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China

This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year (or 9.6 EJ/year), in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around 350 Bcm/year (or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year (or 91.9 EJ/year) around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI (energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found

Additive Pressures of Elevated Sea Surface Temperatures and Herbicides on Symbiont-Bearing Foraminifera

Elevated ocean temperatures and agrochemical pollution individually threaten inshore coral reefs, but these pressures are likely to occur simultaneously. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the combined effects of elevated temperature and the photosystem II (PSII) inhibiting herbicide diuron on several types of symbiotic algae (diatom, dinoflagellate or rhodophyte) of benthic foraminifera in hospite. Diuron was shown to evoke a direct effect on photosynthetic efficiency (reduced effective PSII quantum yield ΔF/F′m), while elevated temperatures (>30°C, only 2°C above current average summer temperatures) were observed to impact photosynthesis more indirectly by causing reductions in maximum PSII quantum yield (Fv/Fm), interpreted as photodamage. Additionally, elevated temperatures were shown to cause bleaching through loss of chlorophyll a in foraminifera hosting either diatoms or dinoflagellates. A significant linear correlation was found between reduced Fv/Fm and loss of chlorophyll a. In most cases, symbionts within foraminifera proved more sensitive to thermal stress in the presence of diuron (≥1 µg L−1). The mixture toxicity model of Independent Action (IA) described the combined effects of temperature and diuron on the photosystem of species hosting diatoms or dinoflagellates convincingly and in agreement with probabilistic statistics, so a response additive joint action can be assumed. We thus demonstrate that improving water quality can improve resilience of symbiotic phototrophs to projected increases in ocean temperatures. As IA described the observed combined effects from elevated temperature and diuron stress it may therefore be employed for prediction of untested mixtures and for assessing the efficacy of management measures

Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida) : models of current and predicted future ranges

© The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in PLoS ONE 8 (2013): e54443, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0054443.Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year−1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.This work was supported by grants from the German Science Foundation (DFG; www.dfg.de) to ML and SL (LA 884/10-1, LA 884/5-1)

Climate Change, Coral Reef Ecosystems, and Management Options for Marine Protected Areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more “traditional” stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation