Use of spatiotemporal analysis of laboratory submission data to identify potential outbreaks of new or emerging diseases in cattle in Great Britain

BACKGROUND: New and emerging diseases of livestock may impact animal welfare, trade and public health. Early detection of outbreaks can reduce the impact of these diseases by triggering control measures that limit the number of cases that occur. The aim of this study was to investigate whether prospective spatiotemporal methods could be used to identify outbreaks of new and emerging diseases in scanning surveillance data. SaTScan was used to identify clusters of unusually high levels of submissions where a diagnosis could not be reached (DNR) using different probability models and baselines. The clusters detected were subjected to a further selection process to reduce the number of false positives and a more detailed epidemiological analysis to ascertain whether they were likely to represent real outbreaks. RESULTS: 187,925 submissions of clinical material from cattle were made to the Regional Laboratory of the Veterinary Laboratories Agency (VLA) between 2002 and 2007, and the results were stored on the VLA FarmFile database. 16,925 of these were classified as DNRs and included in the analyses. Variation in the number and proportion of DNRs was found between syndromes and regions, so a spatiotemporal analysis for each DNR syndrome was done. Six clusters were identified using the Bernoulli model after applying selection criteria (e.g. size of cluster). The further epidemiological analysis revealed that one of the systemic clusters could plausibly have been due to Johne's disease. The remainder were either due to misclassification or not consistent with a single diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses have demonstrated that spatiotemporal methods can be used to detect clusters of new or emerging diseases, identify clusters of known diseases that may not have been diagnosed and identify misclassification in the data, and highlighted the impact of data quality on the ability to detect outbreaks. Spatiotemporal methods should be used alongside current temporal methods for analysis of scanning surveillance data. These statistical analyses should be followed by further investigation of possible outbreaks to determine whether cases have common features suggesting that these are likely to represent real outbreaks, or whether issues with the collection or processing of information have resulted in false positives

Sex Dimorphism in the Myocardial Response to Aortic Stenosis

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to explore sex differences in myocardial remodeling in aortic stenosis (AS) by using echocardiography, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR), and biomarkers. BACKGROUND: AS is a disease of both valve and left ventricle (LV). Sex differences in LV remodeling are reported in AS and may play a role in disease phenotyping. METHODS: This study was a prospective assessment of patients awaiting surgical valve replacement for severe AS using echocardiography, the 6-min walking test, biomarkers (high-sensitivity troponin T and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide), and CMR with late gadolinium enhancement and extracellular volume fraction, which dichotomizes the myocardium into matrix and cell volumes. LV remodeling was categorized into normal geometry, concentric remodeling, concentric hypertrophy, and eccentric hypertrophy. RESULTS: In 168 patients (age 70 ± 10 years, 55% male, indexed aortic valve area 0.40 ± 0.13 cm2/m2, mean gradient 47 ± 4 mm Hg), no sex or age differences in AS severity or functional capacity (6-min walking test) were found. CMR captured sex dimorphism in LV remodeling not apparent by using 2-dimensional echocardiography. Normal geometry (82% female) and concentric remodeling (60% female) dominated in women; concentric hypertrophy (71% male) and eccentric hypertrophy (76% male) dominated in men. Men also had more evidence of LV decompensation (pleural effusions), lower left ventricular ejection fraction (67 ± 16% vs. 74 ± 13%; p < 0.001), and higher levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (p = 0.04) and high-sensitivity troponin T (p = 0.01). Myocardial fibrosis was higher in men, with higher focal fibrosis (late gadolinium enhancement 16.5 ± 11.2 g vs. 10.5 ± 8.9 g; p < 0.001) and extracellular expansion (matrix volume 28.5 ± 8.8 ml/m2 vs. 21.4 ± 6.3 ml/m2; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: CMR revealed sex differences in associations between AS and myocardial remodeling not evident from echocardiography. Given equal valve severity, the myocardial response to AS seems more maladaptive in men than previously reported. (Regression of Myocardial Fibrosis After Aortic Valve Replacement [RELIEF-AS]; NCT02174471.)

Elective Open Suprarenal Aneurysm Repair in England from 2000 to 2010 an Observational Study of Hospital Episode Statistics

Background: Open surgery is widely used as a benchmark for the results of fenestrated endovascular repair of complex abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). However, the existing evidence stems from single-centre experiences, and may not be reproducible in wider practice. National outcomes provide valuable information regarding the safety of suprarenal aneurysm repair. Methods: Demographic and clinical data were extracted from English Hospital Episodes Statistics for patients undergoing elective suprarenal aneurysm repair from 1 April 2000 to 31 March 2010. Thirty-day mortality and five-year survival were analysed by logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results: 793 patients underwent surgery with 14% overall 30-day mortality, which did not improve over the study period. Independent predictors of 30-day mortality included age, renal disease and previous myocardial infarction. 5-year survival was independently reduced by age, renal disease, liver disease, chronic pulmonary disease, and known metastatic solid tumour. There was significant regional variation in both 30-day mortality and 5-year survival after risk-adjustment. Regional differences in outcome were eliminated in a sensitivity analysis for perioperative outcome, conducted by restricting analysis to survivors of the first 30 days after surgery. Conclusions: Elective suprarenal aneurysm repair was associated with considerable mortality and significant regional variation across England. These data provide a benchmark to assess the efficacy of complex endovascular repair of supra-renal aneurysms, though cautious interpretation is required due to the lack of information regarding aneurysm morphology. More detailed study is required, ideally through the mandatory submission of data to a national registry of suprarenal aneurysm repair

El correo electrónico en la consulta de Parkinson: ¿soluciones a un clic? // Use of e-mail for Parkinson's disease consultations: Are answers just a clic away?

INTRODUCCION: La problemática de los trastornos del movimiento (TM) es compleja y la duración y frecuencia de las consultas presenciales puede estar limitada por problemas de espacio y tiempo. Analizamos el funcionamiento de un servicio de atención por correo electrónico institucional para médicos de Atención Primaria (MAP) y pacientes en la Unidad de Trastornos del Movimiento (UTM). METODOS: Se revisaron retrospectivamente los correos electrónicos enviados y recibidos en un periodo de 4 meses, un año tras su implantación. La dirección se proporcionaba en consulta y mediante sesiones informativas a los MAP del área. Se analizaron datos clínicos y demográficos de los pacientes, tipo de interlocutor, número de consultas, motivo y actuaciones derivadas de ellas. RESULTADOS: Del 1 de enero al 30 de abril de 2015 se recibieron 137 correos de 63 pacientes (43% varones; edad 71 ± 10,5 años) diagnosticados de enfermedad de Parkinson (76%), parkinsonismos atípicos (10%) y otros (14%), y se enviaron 116 respuestas. En 20 casos (32%) fueron redactados por el paciente, en 38 (60%) por sus familiares y en 5 (8%) por MAP. Los motivos de consulta fueron clínicos en 50 casos (80%): deterioro clínico (16; 32%), nuevos síntomas (14; 28%), efectos secundarios o dudas sobre medicación (20; 40%). Como consecuencia, se adelantó una cita programada en 9 casos (14%), mientras que el resto se solucionaron por correo electrónico. En 13 (20%), el motivo de consulta fue burocrático: relacionado con citas (11, 85%) y solicitud de informe (2, 15%). La satisfacción fue generalizada, sin constituir una sobrecarga asistencial excesiva para los facultativos responsables. CONCLUSIONES: La implantación de una consulta por correo electrónico es factible en UTM, facilita la comunicación médico-paciente y la continuidad asistencial con Atención Primaria. // INTRODUCTION: The clinical problems of patients with movement disorders (MD) are complex, and the duration and frequency of face-to-face consultations may be insufficient to meet their needs. We analysed the implementation of an e-mail-based query service for our MD unit's patients and their primary care physicians (PCPs). METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all consecutive emails sent and received over a period of 4 months, one year after implementation of the e-mail inquiry system. All patients received the during consultations, and PCPs, during scheduled informative meetings. We recorded and later analysed the profile of the questioner, patients’ demographic and clinical data, number of queries, reason for consultation, and actions taken. RESULTS: From 1 January 2015 to 30 April 2015, the service received 137 emails from 63 patients (43% male, mean age 71 ± 10.5) diagnosed with Parkinson's disease (76%), atypical parkinsonism (10%), and others (14%); 116 responses were sent. Twenty (32%) emails were written by patients, 38 (60%) by their caregivers, and 5 (8%) by their PCPs. The reasons for consultation were clinical in 50 cases (80%): 16 (32%) described clinical deterioration, 14 (28%) onset of new symptoms, and 20 (40%) side effects or concerns about medications. In 13 cases (20%), the query was bureaucratic: 11 were related to appointments (85%) and 2 were requests for clinical reports (15%). In response, new appointments were scheduled in 9 cases (14%), while the rest of the questions were answered by email. Patients were satisfied overall and the additional care burden on specialists was not excessive. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing an e-mail-based consultation system is feasible in MD units. It facilitates both communication between neurologists and patients and continued care in the primary care setting

The Latin American Social Medicine database

BACKGROUND: Public health practitioners and researchers for many years have been attempting to understand more clearly the links between social conditions and the health of populations. Until recently, most public health professionals in English-speaking countries were unaware that their colleagues in Latin America had developed an entire field of inquiry and practice devoted to making these links more clearly understood. The Latin American Social Medicine (LASM) database finally bridges this previous gap. DESCRIPTION: This public health informatics case study describes the key features of a unique information resource intended to improve access to LASM literature and to augment understanding about the social determinants of health. This case study includes both quantitative and qualitative evaluation data. Currently the LASM database at The University of New Mexico brings important information, originally known mostly within professional networks located in Latin American countries to public health professionals worldwide via the Internet. The LASM database uses Spanish, Portuguese, and English language trilingual, structured abstracts to summarize classic and contemporary works. CONCLUSION: This database provides helpful information for public health professionals on the social determinants of health and expands access to LASM

Solving Nonlinear Parabolic Equations by a Strongly Implicit Finite-Difference Scheme

We discuss the numerical solution of nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations, exhibiting finite speed of propagation, via a strongly implicit finite-difference scheme with formal truncation error $\mathcal{O}\left[(\Delta x)^2 + (\Delta t)^2 \right]$. Our application of interest is the spreading of viscous gravity currents in the study of which these type of differential equations arise. Viscous gravity currents are low Reynolds number (viscous forces dominate inertial forces) flow phenomena in which a dense, viscous fluid displaces a lighter (usually immiscible) fluid. The fluids may be confined by the sidewalls of a channel or propagate in an unconfined two-dimensional (or axisymmetric three-dimensional) geometry. Under the lubrication approximation, the mathematical description of the spreading of these fluids reduces to solving the so-called thin-film equation for the current's shape $h(x,t)$. To solve such nonlinear parabolic equations we propose a finite-difference scheme based on the Crank--Nicolson idea. We implement the scheme for problems involving a single spatial coordinate (i.e., two-dimensional, axisymmetric or spherically-symmetric three-dimensional currents) on an equispaced but staggered grid. We benchmark the scheme against analytical solutions and highlight its strong numerical stability by specifically considering the spreading of non-Newtonian power-law fluids in a variable-width confined channel-like geometry (a "Hele-Shaw cell") subject to a given mass conservation/balance constraint. We show that this constraint can be implemented by re-expressing it as nonlinear flux boundary conditions on the domain's endpoints. Then, we show numerically that the scheme achieves its full second-order accuracy in space and time. We also highlight through numerical simulations how the proposed scheme accurately respects the mass conservation/balance constraint.Comment: 36 pages, 9 figures, Springer book class; v2 includes improvements and corrections; to appear as a contribution in "Applied Wave Mathematics II

Prime movers : mechanochemistry of mitotic kinesins

Mitotic spindles are self-organizing protein machines that harness teams of multiple force generators to drive chromosome segregation. Kinesins are key members of these force-generating teams. Different kinesins walk directionally along dynamic microtubules, anchor, crosslink, align and sort microtubules into polarized bundles, and influence microtubule dynamics by interacting with microtubule tips. The mechanochemical mechanisms of these kinesins are specialized to enable each type to make a specific contribution to spindle self-organization and chromosome segregation

Why Are Some Plant Genera More Invasive Than Others?

Determining how biological traits are related to the ability of groups of organisms to become economically damaging when established outside of their native ranges is a major goal of population biology, and important in the management of invasive species. Little is known about why some taxonomic groups are more likely to become pests than others among plants. We investigated traits that discriminate vascular plant genera, a level of taxonomic generality at which risk assessment and screening could be more effectively performed, according to the proportion of naturalized species which are pests. We focused on the United States and Canada, and, because our purpose is ultimately regulatory, considered species classified as weeds or noxious. Using contingency tables, we identified 11 genera of vascular plants that are disproportionately represented by invasive species. Results from boosted regression tree analyses show that these categories reflect biological differences. In summary, approximately 25% of variation in genus proportions of weeds or noxious species was explained by biological covariates. Key explanatory traits included genus means for wetland habitat affinity, chromosome number, and seed mass

The use of income information of census enumeration area as a proxy for the household income in a household survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Some of the Census Enumeration Areas' (CEA) information may help planning the sample of population studies but it can also be used for some analyses that require information that is more difficult to obtain at the individual or household level, such as income. This paper verifies if the income information of CEA can be used as a proxy for household income in a household survey.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A population-based survey conducted from January to December 2003 obtained data from a probabilistic sample of 1,734 households of Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Uniform semi-association models were adjusted in order to obtain information about the agreement/disagreement structure of data. The distribution of nutritional status categories of the population of Niterói according to income quintiles was performed using both CEA- and household-level income measures and then compared using Wald statistics for homogeneity. Body mass index was calculated using body mass and stature data measured in the households and then used to define nutritional status categories according to the World Health Organization. All estimates and statistics were calculated accounting for the structural information of the sample design and a significance level lower than 5% was adopted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The classification of households in the quintiles of household income was associated with the classification of these households in the quintiles of CEA income. The distribution of the nutritional status categories in all income quintiles did not differ significantly according to the source of income information (household or CEA) used in the definition of quintiles.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The structure of agreement/disagreement between quintiles of the household's monthly per capita income and quintiles of the head-of-household's mean nominal monthly income of the CEA, as well as the results produced by these measures when they were associated with the nutritional status of the population, showed that the CEA's income information can be used when income information at the individual or household levels is not available.</p