Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7

Scenarios have been an important integrating element in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the understanding of possible climate outcomes, impacts and risks, and mitigation futures. Integration supports a consistent, coherent assessment, new insights and the opportunity to address policy-relevant questions that would not be possible otherwise, for example, which impacts are unavoidable, which are reversible, what is a consistent remaining carbon budget to keep temperatures below a level and what would be a consistent route of action to achieve that goal. The AR6 builds on community frameworks that are developed to support a coherent use of scenarios across the assessment, yet their use in the assessment and the related timelines presented coordination challenges. From lessons within each Working Group (WG) assessment and the cross-WG experience, we present insights into the role of scenarios in future assessments, including the enhanced integration of impacts into scenarios, near-term information and community coordination efforts. Recommendations and opportunities are discussed for how scenarios can support strengthened consistency and policy relevance in the next IPCC assessment cycle

Supermassive Black Hole Binaries: The Search Continues

Gravitationally bound supermassive black hole binaries (SBHBs) are thought to be a natural product of galactic mergers and growth of the large scale structure in the universe. They however remain observationally elusive, thus raising a question about characteristic observational signatures associated with these systems. In this conference proceeding I discuss current theoretical understanding and latest advances and prospects in observational searches for SBHBs.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures. To appear in the Proceedings of 2014 Sant Cugat Forum on Astrophysics. Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings, ed. C.Sopuerta (Berlin: Springer-Verlag

How Coupling Determines the Entrainment of Circadian Clocks

Autonomous circadian clocks drive daily rhythms in physiology and behaviour. A network of coupled neurons, the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN), serves as a robust self-sustained circadian pacemaker. Synchronization of this timer to the environmental light-dark cycle is crucial for an organism's fitness. In a recent theoretical and experimental study it was shown that coupling governs the entrainment range of circadian clocks. We apply the theory of coupled oscillators to analyse how diffusive and mean-field coupling affects the entrainment range of interacting cells. Mean-field coupling leads to amplitude expansion of weak oscillators and, as a result, reduces the entrainment range. We also show that coupling determines the rigidity of the synchronized SCN network, i.e. the relaxation rates upon perturbation. %(Floquet exponents). Our simulations and analytical calculations using generic oscillator models help to elucidate how coupling determines the entrainment of the SCN. Our theoretical framework helps to interpret experimental data

Radiative Decay Modes of the D0D^{0} Meson

Using data recorded by the CLEO-II detector at CESR we have searched for four radiative decay modes of the $D^0$ meson: $D^0\to\phi\gamma$, $D^0\to\omega\gamma$, $D^0\to\bar{K}^{*}\gamma$, and $D^0\to\rho^0\gamma$. We obtain 90% CL upper limits on the branching ratios of these modes of $1.9\times 10^{-4}$, $2.4\times 10^{-4}$, $7.6\times 10^{-4}$ and $2.4\times 10^{-4}$ respectively.Comment: 15 page postscript file, postscript file also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN

Measurement of the Mass Splittings between the bbˉχb,J(1P)b\bar{b}\chi_{b,J}(1P) States

We present new measurements of photon energies and branching fractions for the radiative transitions: Upsilon(2S)->gamma+chi_b(J=0,1,2). The masses of the chi_b states are determined from the measured radiative photon energies. The ratio of mass splittings between the chi_b substates, r==(M[J=2]-M[J=1])/(M[J=1]-M[J=0]) with M the chi_b mass, provides information on the nature of the bbbar confining potential. We find r(1P)=0.54+/-0.02+/-0.02. This value is in conflict with the previous world average, but more consistent with the theoretical expectation that r(1P)<r(2P); i.e., that this mass splittings ratio is smaller for the chi_b(1P) triplet than for the chi_b(2P) triplet.Comment: 11 page postscript file, postscript file also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN

Subcortical brain volume, regional cortical thickness, and cortical surface area across disorders: findings from the ENIGMA ADHD, ASD, and OCD Working Groups

Objective Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) are common neurodevelopmental disorders that frequently co-occur. We aimed to directly compare all three disorders. The ENIGMA consortium is ideally positioned to investigate structural brain alterations across these disorders. Methods Structural T1-weighted whole-brain MRI of controls (n=5,827) and patients with ADHD (n=2,271), ASD (n=1,777), and OCD (n=2,323) from 151 cohorts worldwide were analyzed using standardized processing protocols. We examined subcortical volume, cortical thickness and surface area differences within a mega-analytical framework, pooling measures extracted from each cohort. Analyses were performed separately for children, adolescents, and adults using linear mixed-effects models adjusting for age, sex and site (and ICV for subcortical and surface area measures). Results We found no shared alterations among all three disorders, while shared alterations between any two disorders did not survive multiple comparisons correction. Children with ADHD compared to those with OCD had smaller hippocampal volumes, possibly influenced by IQ. Children and adolescents with ADHD also had smaller ICV than controls and those with OCD or ASD. Adults with ASD showed thicker frontal cortices compared to adult controls and other clinical groups. No OCD-specific alterations across different age-groups and surface area alterations among all disorders in childhood and adulthood were observed. Conclusion Our findings suggest robust but subtle alterations across different age-groups among ADHD, ASD, and OCD. ADHD-specific ICV and hippocampal alterations in children and adolescents, and ASD-specific cortical thickness alterations in the frontal cortex in adults support previous work emphasizing neurodevelopmental alterations in these disorders