468 research outputs found

    Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise

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    A Systematic Review of the Efficacy of Motivational Interviewing on Occupational Performance

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    This systematic review aims to review the efficacy of MI to address such performance goals falling within the occupational therapy scope of practice

    The Threat of MultiĂą Year Drought in Western Amazonia

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    Recent Ăą onceĂą inĂą aĂą centuryĂą Amazonian droughts highlight the impacts of drought and climate change on this region’s vegetation, carbon storage, water cycling, biodiversity, land use, and economy. The latest climate model simulations suggest this region will experience worsening future drought. However, the instrumental record is too short to quantify the range of background drought variability, or to evaluate extended drought risk in climate models. To overcome these limitations, we generated a new, highly resolved lake record of hydroclimatic variability within the western Amazon Basin. We find that Amazonia has regularly experienced multiĂą year droughts over the last millennium. Our results indicate that current climate model simulations likely underestimate the background risk of multiĂą year Amazonian drought. These findings illustrate that the future sustainability of the Amazonian forest and its many services may require management strategies that consider the likelihood of multiĂą year droughts superimposed on a continued warming trend.Plain Language SummaryThe Amazon basin recently experienced multiple Ăą onceĂą inĂą aĂą centuryĂą droughts that impacted the region’s water cycle, economy, vegetation, and carbon storage. However, the instrumental record in this region tends to be too short to determine if these droughts are abnormal in a longĂą term context. Paleoclimate data can extend drought records that help water and land managers plan for these events in the face of climate change. To provide additional information about preĂą instrumental drought, here we present results from a new paleoclimate lake record based on sediments we recovered from Lake Limón in the Peruvian Amazon. We find that concentrations of elements in the Lake Limón sediment cores are likely recording past changes in rainfall variability. We use this elemental variability to generate a new, millennialĂą length record of drought for the western Amazon. We show that this region has experienced multiĂą year droughts at least twice a century over the last Ăą ÂŒ1,400 years. The frequency and severity of these paleoclimateĂą inferred droughts may exceed most climate model and instrumentalĂą era drought risk estimates. Our findings illustrate that the future sustainability of the Amazonian forest and its many ecosystem services may require management strategies that consider the likelihood of multiĂą year droughts in addition to continued warming.Key PointsWe present results from a highĂą resolution paleoclimate record of hydroclimatic variability in western AmazoniaOur paleoclimate record suggests western Amazonia has regularly experienced multiĂą year drought over the last millenniumEarth system model simulations may underestimate the background risk of multiĂą year western Amazonian droughtPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146272/1/wrcr23386_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146272/2/wrcr23386.pd

    Forty years of paleoecology in the Galapagos

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    The Galapagos Islands provided one of the first lowland paleoecological records from the Neotropics. Since the first cores were raised from the islands in 1966, there has been a substantial increase in knowledge of past systems, and development of the science of paleoclimatology. The study of fossil pollen, diatoms, corals and compound-specific isotopes on the Galapagos has contributed to the maturation of this discipline. As research has moved from questions about ice-age conditions and mean states of the Holocene to past frequency of El Niño Southern Oscillation, the resolution of fossil records has shifted from millennial to sub-decadal. Understanding the vulnerability of the Galapagos to climate change will be enhanced by knowledge of past climate change and responses in the islands

    Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

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    We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

    Scanning micro-X-ray fluorescence elemental mapping : a new tool for the study of laminated sediment records

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    Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 9 (2008): Q02016, doi:10.1029/2007GC001800.The utility of elemental mapping by scanning X-ray fluorescence (XRF) in the study of annual laminated sedimentary records was investigated on eight annually laminated sediment types. The examples were chosen to illustrate the potential of this approach in environments dominated by terrigenous, biological and chemical deposition. Individual laminae were identifiable in elemental maps of all sediment types and were enhanced through the use of data reduction techniques (e.g., principal components transformation). Laminae were least apparent in clastic dominated systems with no seasonal changes in sediment sources. In biologically dominated systems, element maps provided insights into the composition of the varve subcomponents, related to alternating terrigenous and biologically dominated seasonal periods of deposition. Chemically precipitated structures were more prevalent than expected from visual investigations alone and may provide an underutilized paleoenvironmental signature of changing limnological conditions. Elemental mapping offers a valuable tool for the study of laminated records that complements existing techniques (e.g., SEM, digital image analysis).Funding was provided through NSF Earth System History grants and an NSF Instrumentation grant awarded to J.T.O

    Childhood deaths from external causes in Estonia, 2001–2005

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In 2000, the overall rate of injury deaths in children aged 0–14 was 28.7 per 100000 in Estonia, which is more than 5 times higher than the corresponding rate in neighbouring Finland. This paper describes childhood injury mortality in Estonia by cause and age groups, and validates registration of these deaths in the Statistical Office of Estonia against the autopsy data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data on causes of all child deaths in Estonia in 2001–2005 were abstracted from the autopsy protocols at the Estonian Bureau of Forensic Medicine. Average annual mortality rates per 100,000 were calculated. Coverage (proportion of the reported injury deaths from the total number of injury deaths) and accuracy (proportion of correctly classified injury deaths) of the registration of causes of death in Statistical Office of Estonia were assessed by comparing the Statistical Office of Estonia data with the data from Estonian Bureau of Forensic Medicine.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Average annual mortality from external causes in 0–14 years-old children in Estonia was 19.1 per 100,000. Asphyxia and transport accidents were the major killers followed by poisoning and suicides. Relative contribution of these causes varied greatly between age groups. Intent of death was unknown for more than 10% of injury deaths. Coverage and accuracy of registration of injury deaths by Statistical Office of Estonia were 91.5% and 95.3%, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Childhood mortality from injuries in Estonia is among the highest in the EU. The number of injury deaths in Statistical Office of Estonia is slightly underestimated mostly due to misclassification for deaths from diseases. Accuracy of the Statistical Office of Estonia data was high with some underestimation of intentional deaths. Moreover, high proportion of death with unknown intent suggests underestimation of intentional deaths.</p> <p>Reduction of injury deaths should be given a high priority in Estonia. More information on circumstances around death is needed to enable establishing the intent of death.</p

    Holocene El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability reflected in subtropical Australian precipitation

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    The La Niña and El Niño phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have major impacts on regional rainfall patterns around the globe, with substantial environmental, societal and economic implications. Long-term perspectives on ENSO behaviour, under changing background conditions, are essential to anticipating how ENSO phases may respond under future climate scenarios. Here, we derive a 7700-year, quantitative precipitation record using carbon isotope ratios from a single species of leaf preserved in lake sediments from subtropical eastern Australia. We find a generally wet (more La Niña-like) mid-Holocene that shifted towards drier and more variable climates after 3200 cal. yr BP, primarily driven by increasing frequency and strength of the El Niño phase. Climate model simulations implicate a progressive orbitally-driven weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation as contributing to this change. At centennial scales, high rainfall characterised the Little Ice Age (~1450–1850 CE) in subtropical eastern Australia, contrasting with oceanic proxies that suggest El Niño-like conditions prevail during this period. Our data provide a new western Pacific perspective on Holocene ENSO variability and highlight the need to address ENSO reconstruction with a geographically diverse network of sites to characterise how both ENSO, and its impacts, vary in a changing climate
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