Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones

The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been given to this important property. This study investigates and quantifies the seriality of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere using a point-process approach. A possible mechanism for serial clustering is the time-varying effect of the large-scale flow on individual cyclone tracks. Another mechanism is the generation by one parent cyclone of one or more offspring through secondary cyclogenesis. A long cyclone-track database was constructed for extended October March winters from 1950 to 2003 using 6-h analyses of 850-mb relative vorticity derived from the NCEP NCAR reanalysis. A dispersion statistic based on the varianceto- mean ratio of monthly cyclone counts was used as a measure of clustering. It reveals extensive regions of statistically significant clustering in the European exit region of the North Atlantic storm track and over the central North Pacific. Monthly cyclone counts were regressed on time-varying teleconnection indices with a log-linear Poisson model. Five independent teleconnection patterns were found to be significant factors over Europe: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the east Atlantic western Russian pattern, and the polar Eurasian pattern. The NAO alone is not sufficient for explaining the variability of cyclone counts in the North Atlantic region and western Europe. Rate dependence on time-varying teleconnection indices accounts for the variability in monthly cyclone counts, and a cluster process did not need to be invoked

A Single Dynamic Metabolic Model Can Describe mAb Producing CHO Cell Batch and Fed-Batch Cultures on Different Culture Media

CHO cell culture high productivity relies on optimized culture medium management under fed-batch or perfused chemostat strategies enabling high cell densities. In this work, a dynamic metabolic model for CHO cells was further developed, calibrated and challenged using datasets obtained under four different culture conditions, including two batch and two fed-batch cultures comparing two different culture media. The recombinant CHO-DXB11 cell line producing the EG2-hFc monoclonal antibody was studied. Quantification of extracellular substrates and metabolites concentration, viable cell density, monoclonal antibody concentration and intracellular concentration of metabolite intermediates of glycolysis, pentose-phosphate and TCA cycle, as well as of energetic nucleotides, were obtained for model calibration. Results suggest that a single model structure with a single set of kinetic parameter values is efficient at simulating viable cell behavior in all cases under study, estimating the time course of measured and non-measured intracellular and extracellular metabolites. Model simulations also allowed performing dynamic metabolic flux analysis, showing that the culture media and the fed-batch strategies tested had little impact on flux distribution. This work thus paves the way to an in silico platform allowing to assess the performance of different culture media and fed-batch strategies