Teaching an Old Dog New Tricks: Improved Estimation of the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations by Numerical Solution of the Fokker-Planck Equation

Many stochastic differential equations (SDEs) do not have readily available closed-form expressions for their transitional probability density functions (PDFs). As a result, a large number of competing estimation approaches have been proposed in order to obtain maximum-likelihood estimates of their parameters. Arguably the most straightforward of these is one in which the required estimates of the transitional PDF are obtained by numerical solution of the Fokker-Planck(or forward-Kolmogorov) partial differential equation. Despite the fact that this method produces accurate estimates and is completely generic, it has not proved popular in the applied literature. Perhaps this is attributable to the fact that this approach requires repeated solution of a parabolic partial differential equation to obtain the transitional PDF and is therefore computationally quite expensive. In this paper, three avenues for improving the reliability and speed of this estimation method are introduced and explored in the context of estimating the parameters of the popular Cox-Ingersoll-Ross and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. The recommended algorithm that emerges from this investigation is seen to offer substantial gains in reliability and computational time.stochastic di®erential equations, maximum likelihood, ¯nite di®erence, ¯nite element, cumulative

Loudly sing cuckoo : More-than-human seasonalities in Britain

This research was funded by a grant from the Arts and Humanities Research Council, grant number AH/E009573/1.Peer reviewedPostprin

Bayesian solutions to the label switching problem

The label switching problem, the unidentifiability of the permutation of clusters or more generally latent variables, makes interpretation of results computed with MCMC sampling difficult. We introduce a fully Bayesian treatment of the permutations which performs better than alternatives. The method can be used to compute summaries of the posterior samples even for nonparametric Bayesian methods, for which no good solutions exist so far. Although being approximative in this case, the results are very promising. The summaries are intuitively appealing: A summarized cluster is defined as a set of points for which the likelihood of being in the same cluster is maximized

A comparison of walk-in counselling and the wait list model for delivering counselling services

Background: Walk-in counselling has been used to reduce wait times but there are few controlled studies to compare outcomes between walk-in and the traditional model of service delivery. Aims: To compare change in psychological distress by clients receiving services from two models of service delivery, a walk-in counselling model and a traditional counselling model involving a wait list Method: Mixed methods sequential explanatory design including quantitative comparison of groups with one pre-test and two follow ups, and qualitative analysis of interviews with a subsample. 524 participants 16 years and older were recruited from two Family Counselling Agencies; the General Health Questionnaire assessed change in psychological distress; prior use of other mental health and instrumental services was also reported. Results: Hierarchical linear modelling revealed clients of the walk-in model improved faster and were less distressed at the 4-week follow-up compared to the traditional service delivery model. At the 10-week follow-up, both groups had improved and were similar. Participants receiving instrumental services prior to baseline improved more slowly. Qualitative interviews confirmed participants valued the accessibility of the walk-in model. Conclusions: This study improves methodologically on previous studies of walk-in counselling, an approach to service delivery that is not conducive to randomized controlled trials

Concurrent and prospective associations between negative social-evaluative beliefs, safety behaviours, and symptoms during and following cognitive behavioural group therapy for social anxiety disorder

Background: Improving the delivery of cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) for social anxiety disorder (SAD) requires an in-depth understanding of which cognitive and behavioural mechanisms drive change in social anxiety symptoms (i.e., social interaction anxiety) during and after treatment. The current study explores the dynamic temporal associations between theory-driven cognitive and behavioural mechanisms of symptom change both during and following group CBT. Methods: A randomized controlled trial of imagery-enhanced CBT (n = 51) versus traditional verbal CBT (n = 54) for social anxiety was completed in a community mental health clinic setting. This study included data collected from 12-weekly sessions and a 1-month follow-up session. Mixed models were used to assess magnitude of change over the course of treatment. Cross-lagged panel models were fit to the data to examine temporal relationships between mechanisms (social evaluative beliefs, safety behaviours) and social interaction anxiety symptoms. Results: Participants in both CBT groups experienced significant improvements across all cognitive, behavioural, and symptom measures, with no significant differences in the magnitude of changes between treatments. During treatment, greater social-evaluative beliefs (fear of negative evaluation, negative self-portrayals) at one time point (T) were predictive of more severe SAD symptoms and safety behaviours at T+1. Social-evaluative beliefs (fear of negative evaluation, probability and cost of social failure) and safety behaviours measured at post-treatment were positively associated with SAD symptoms at the 1-month follow-up. Conclusions: The current study identifies social-evaluative beliefs that may be important targets for symptom and avoidance reduction during and following CBT. Assessment of these social-evaluative beliefs throughout treatment may be useful for predicting future SAD symptoms and avoidance, and for adapting treatment to promote optimal change for patients

Neuro-inflammatory effects of photodegradative products of bilirubin

Phototherapy was introduced in the early 1950\u2019s, and is the primary treatment of severe neonatal jaundice or Crigler-Najjar syndrome. Nevertheless, the potential biological effects of the products generated from the photodegradation of bilirubin during phototherapy remain unknown. This is very relevant in light of recent clinical observations demonstrating that the use of aggressive phototherapy can increase morbidity or even mortality, in extremely low birthweight (ELBW) infants. The aim of our study was to investigate the effects of bilirubin, lumirubin (LR, its major photo-oxidative product), and BOX A and B (its monopyrrolic oxidative products) on the central nervous system (CNS) using in vitro and ex vivo experimental models. The effects of bilirubin photoproducts on cell viability and expression of selected genes were tested in human fibroblasts, three human CNS cell lines (neuroblastoma SH-SY5Y, microglial HMC3, and glioblastoma U-87 cell lines), and organotypic rat hippocampal slices. Neither bilirubin nor its photo-oxidative products affected cell viability in any of our models. In contrast, LR in biologically-relevant concentrations (25\u2009\u3bcM) significantly increased gene expression of several pro-inflammatory genes as well as production of TNF-\u3b1 in organotypic rat hippocampal slices. These findings might underlie the adverse outcomes observed in ELBW infants undergoing aggressive phototherapy

Developmental Exposure to Polychlorinated Biphenyls Influences Stroke Outcome in Adult Rats

BackgroundThe "developmental origins of adult disease" hypothesis was originally derived from evidence linking low birth weight to cardiovascular diseases including stroke. Subsequently, it has been expanded to include developmental exposures to environmental contaminants as risk factors for adult onset disease.ObjectiveOur goal in this study was to test the hypothesis that developmental exposure to poly-chlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) alters stroke outcome in adults.MethodsWe exposed rats to the PCB mixture Aroclor 1254 (A1254) at 0.1 or 1 mg/kg/day in the maternal diet throughout gestation and lactation. Focal cerebral ischemia was induced at 6-8 weeks of age via middle cerebral artery occlusion, and infarct size was measured in the cerebral cortex and striatum at 22 hr of reperfusion. PCB congeners were quantified in brain tissue by gas chromatography with microelectron capture detection, and cortical and striatal expression of Bcl2 and Cyp2C11 were quantified by quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction.ResultsDevelopmental exposure to A1254 significantly decreased striatal infarct in females and males at 0.1 and 1 mg/kg/day, respectively. Predominantly ortho-substituted PCB congeners were detected above background levels in brains of adult females and males exposed to A1254 at 1 but not 0.1 mg/kg/day. Effects of developmental A1254 exposure on Bcl2 and Cyp2C11 expression did not correlate with effects on infarct volume.ConclusionOur data provide proof of principle that developmental exposures to environmental contaminants influence the response of the adult brain to ischemic injury and thus represent potentially important determinants of stroke susceptibility

Momentum meets value investing in a small European market

In this paper, we investigate two prominent market anomalies documented in the finance literature – the momentum effect and value-growth effect. We conduct an out- of-sample test to the link between these two anomalies recurring to a sample of Portuguese stocks during the period 1988–2015. We find that the momentum of value and growth stocks is significantly different: growth stocks exhibit a much larger momentum than value stocks. A combined value and momentum strategy can generate statistically significant excess annual returns of 10.8%. These findings persist across several holding periods up to a year. Moreover, we show that macroeconomic variables fail to explain value and momentum of individual and combined returns. Collectively, our results contradict market efficiency at the weak form and pose a challenge to existing asset pricing theories.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Ischemic neurons recruit natural killer cells that accelerate brain infarction

Brain ischemia and reperfusion activate the immune system. The abrupt development of brain ischemic lesions suggests that innate immune cells may shape the outcome of stroke. Natural killer (NK) cells are innate lymphocytes that can be swiftly mobilized during the earliest phases of immune responses, but their role during stroke remains unknown. Herein, we found that NK cells infiltrated the ischemic lesions of the human brain. In a mouse model of cerebral ischemia, ischemic neuron-derived fractalkine recruited NK cells, which subsequently determined the size of brain lesions in a T and B cell-independent manner. NK cell-mediated exacerbation of brain infarction occurred rapidly after ischemia via the disruption of NK cell tolerance, augmenting local inflammation and neuronal hyperactivity. Therefore, NK cells catalyzed neuronal death in the ischemic brain