Estimating the frequency of extremely energetic solar events, based on solar, stellar, lunar, and terrestrial records

The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one suggested proxy, nitrate concentrations in polar ice cores, does not map reliably to SEP events. Concentrations of select radionuclides measured in natural archives may prove useful in extending the time interval of direct observations up to ten millennia, but as their calibration to solar flare fluences depends on multiple poorly known properties and processes, these proxies cannot presently be used to help determine the flare energy frequency distribution. Being thus limited to the use of direct flare observations, we evaluate the probabilities of large-energy solar explosions by combining solar flare observations with an ensemble of stellar flare observations. We conclude that solar flare energies form a relatively smooth distribution from small events to large flares, while flares on magnetically-active, young Sun-like stars have energies and frequencies markedly in excess of strong solar flares, even after an empirical scaling with the mean activity level of these stars. In order to empirically quantify the frequency of uncommonly large solar flares extensive surveys of stars of near-solar age need to be obtained, such as is feasible with the Kepler satellite. Because the likelihood of flares larger than approximately X30 remains empirically unconstrained, we present indirect arguments, based on records of sunspots and on statistical arguments, that solar flares in the past four centuries have likely not substantially exceeded the level of the largest flares observed in the space era, and that there is at most about a 10% chance of a flare larger than about X30 in the next 30 years.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures (in press as of 2012/06/18); Journal of Geophysical Research (Space Physics), 201

Analyse des diffusions aux petits angles par ordinateur et application aux diffusions protons-noyaux à 3 GeV/c

Computer test programs, based on statistical methods of small angle scattering detection, provide directly the measurement of the events, thereby reducing the scanner's bias. Application is made to 3 GeV/c p-nucleus interaction in nuclear emulsion.Des programmes tests sur ordinateur, établis à partir de méthodes de détection statistique des diffusions aux petits angles, fournissent directement la mesure des angles de diffusion ; le biais de l'observateur est ainsi éliminé. Ces programmes tests sont appliqués aux interactions p-noyaux à 3 GeV/c

A copy number variant is associated with a spectrum of pigmentation patterns in the rock pigeon (Columba livia).

Rock pigeons (Columba livia) display an extraordinary array of pigment pattern variation. One such pattern, Almond, is characterized by a variegated patchwork of plumage colors that are distributed in an apparently random manner. Almond is a sex-linked, semi-dominant trait controlled by the classical Stipper (St) locus. Heterozygous males (ZStZ+ sex chromosomes) and hemizygous Almond females (ZStW) are favored by breeders for their attractive plumage. In contrast, homozygous Almond males (ZStZSt) develop severe eye defects and often lack plumage pigmentation, suggesting that higher dosage of the mutant allele is deleterious. To determine the molecular basis of Almond, we compared the genomes of Almond pigeons to non-Almond pigeons and identified a candidate St locus on the Z chromosome. We found a copy number variant (CNV) within the differentiated region that captures complete or partial coding sequences of four genes, including the melanosome maturation gene Mlana. We did not find fixed coding changes in genes within the CNV, but all genes are misexpressed in regenerating feather bud collar cells of Almond birds. Notably, six other alleles at the St locus are associated with depigmentation phenotypes, and all exhibit expansion of the same CNV. Structural variation at St is linked to diversity in plumage pigmentation and gene expression, and thus provides a potential mode of rapid phenotypic evolution in pigeons