Belief Dispersion and Order Submission Strategies in the Foreign Exchange Market

This paper empirically examines how dispersions across investors beliefs influence traders order submission decisions in the foreign exchange market. Previous research has found that dispersion in traders beliefs regarding future macroeconomic announcements has a significant impact on both price dynamics and trading volume before the announcements in the foreign exchange and other financial markets. However, little is known about how this dispersion impacts traders choice in submitting different types of orders and thus to supply and demand liquidity either before or after such announcements. Since the types of orders submitted by traders at these times are the building blocks of the observed price and trading dynamics, it is important to understand how differences in investors' information sets before and after important macroeconomic announcements affect their order submission decisions. We find that (i) belief dispersion affects the size and aggressiveness of orders both before and after macroeconomic announcements, (ii) the magnitude of the impact of factors known to affect order choice depends on the level of belief dispersion, and (iii) the influence of information shocks (the revelation of unexpected information) on order choices depends on the level of belief dispersion.Exchange rates; Market structure and pricing

Order Submission: The Choice between Limit and Market Orders

Most financial markets allow investors to submit both limit and market orders, but it is not always clear what affects the choice of order type. The authors empirically investigate how the time between order submissions, changes in the state of the order book, and price uncertainty influence the rate of submission of limit and market orders. The authors measure the expected time (duration) between the submissions of orders of each type using an asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration model. They find that the execution of market orders, as well as changes in the level of price uncertainty and market depth, impact the submissions of both best limit orders and market orders. After correcting for these factors, the authors also find differences in behaviour around market openings, closings, and unexpected events that may be related to changes in information flows at these times. In general, traders use more market (limit) orders at times when execution risk for limit orders is highest or the risk of unexpected price movements is highest.Exchange rate; Financial institution; Market structure and pricing

A Structural Error-Correction Model of Best Prices and Depths in the Foreign Exchange Limit Order Market

Traders using the electronic limit order book in the foreign exchange market can watch the posted price and depth of the best quotes change over the day. The authors use a structural errorcorrection model to examine the dynamics of the relationship between the best bid price, the best ask price, and their associated depths. They incorporate measures of the market depth behind the best quotes as regressors. They report four main findings. First, best prices and their associated depths are contemporaneously related to each other. More specifically, an increase in the ask (bid) price is associated with a drop (rise) in the ask (bid) depth. This suggests that sell traders avoid the adverse-selection risk of selling in a rising market. Second, when the spread-the error-correction term-widens, the bid price rises and the ask price drops, returning the spread to its long-term equilibrium value. Further, the best depth on both sides of the market drops, due to increased market uncertainty. Third, the lagged best depth impacts the price discovery on both sides of the market, with the effect being strongest on the same side of the market. Fourth, changes in the depth behind the best quotes impact both the best prices and quantities, even though those changes are unobservable to market participants.Exchange rates; Financial markets

Order Aggressiveness and Quantity: How Are They Determined in a Limit Order Market?

Dealers trading in a limit order market must choose both the order aggressiveness and the quantity for their orders. We empirically investigate how dealers jointly make these decisions in the foreign exchange market using a unique simultaneous equations model. The model uses an ordered probit model to account for the discrete nature of order aggressiveness and a censored regression model to capture the clustering of orders placed at the smallest available quantity, $1 million. We find evidence of a clear trade-off between order aggressiveness and quantity: more aggressive orders tend to be smaller in size. The increased competition (demand) suggested by increased depth on the same (opposite) side of the market leads to less (more) aggressive orders in smaller (larger) size. This holds for the depths at both the best and off-best prices, even though off-best depths are not observable to dealers.Exchange rates; Financial markets

Price Formation and Liquidity Provision in Short-Term Fixed Income Markets

Differences in market structures may affect the manner in which fundamental information is incorporated into prices. High levels of quote and trade transparency plus substantial quoting obligations in European government securities markets ensure that prices are informationally efficient. The relationship between price changes, order flow, relative depth and spreads across European and Canadian short-term government bond markets is examined via a reduced-form vector autoregression model. In European markets, dealers are able to quickly absorb private information elsewhere in the market. Consequently, spreads and the relative depth on the bid and offer sides of the market are found to be only slightly informative. Similarly, order flow, which reflects inventory management practices in addition to private information, explains a smaller proportion of the variation in asset returns in European markets than in Canadian interdealer brokered markets where no quoting obligations exist.Market structure and pricing; Financial markets; Interest rates

Information Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery -- Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market

We examine large price changes, known as jumps, in the U.S. Treasury market. Using recently developed statistical tools, we identify price jumps in the 2-, 3-, 5-, 10-year notes and 30-year bond during the period of 2005-2006. Our results show that jumps mostly occur during prescheduled macroeconomic announcements or events. Nevertheless, market surprise based on preannouncement surveys is an imperfect predictor of bond price jumps. We find that a macroeconomic news announcement is often preceeded by an increase in market volatility and a withdrawal of liquidity, and that liquidity shocks play an important role for price jumps in U.S. Treasury market. More importantly, we present evidence that jumps serve as a dramatic form of price discovery in the sense that they help to quickly incorporate market information into bond prices.Financial markets

Private Information Flow and Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market

Existing studies show that U.S. Treasury bond price changes are mainly driven by public information shocks, as manifested in macroeconomic news announcements and events. The literature also shows that heterogeneous private information contributes significantly to price discovery for U.S. Treasury securities. In this paper, we use high frequency transaction data for 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasury notes and employ a Markov switching model to identify intraday private information flow in the U.S. Treasury market. We show that the probability of private information flow (PPIF) identified in our model effectively captures permanent price effects in U.S. Treasury securities. In addition, our results show that public information shocks and heterogeneous private information are the main factors of bond price discovery on announcement days, whereas private information and liquidity shocks play more important roles in bond price variation on non-announcement days. Most interestingly, our results show that the role of heterogeneous private information is more prominent when public information shocks are either high or low. Furthermore, we show that heterogeneous private information flow is followed by low trading volume, low total market depth and hidden depth. The pattern is more pronounced on non-announcement days.Financial markets; Market structure and pricing

High-Frequency Trading around Macroeconomic News Announcements: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market

This paper investigates high-frequency (HF) market and limit orders in the U.S. Treasury market around major macroeconomic news announcements. BrokerTec introduced i-Cross at the end of 2007 and we use this exogenous event as an instrument to analyze the impact of HF activities on liquidity and price efficiency. Our results show that HF activities have a negative effect on liquidity around economic announcements: they widen spreads during the pre-announcement period and lower depth on the order book during the post-announcement period. The negative impact on liquidity mainly derives from HF trades. Nonetheless, HF trades improve price efficiency during both the preannouncement and post-announcement periods

Novel missense mutation of the TP63 gene in a newborn with Hay-Wells/Ankyloblepharon-Ectodermal defects-Cleft lip/palate (AEC) syndrome: clinical report and follow-up

Ankyloblepharon-ectodermal defects-cleft lip/palate (AEC) syndrome, also known as Hay-Wells syndrome, is a rare genetic syndrome with ectodermal dysplasia. About 100 patients have been reported to date. It is associated to a heterozygous mutation of the tumor protein p63 (TP63) gene, located on chromosome 3q28. Typical clinical manifestations include: filiform ankyloblepharon adnatum (congenital adherence of the eyelids), ectodermal abnormalities (sparse and frizzy hair, skin defects, nail alterations, dental changes and hypohidrosis), and cleft lip/palate. Diagnostic suspicion is based on clinical signs and confirmed by genetic testing

High Frequency Trading around Macroeconomic News Announcements -Evidence from the US Treasury market

Abstract This paper investigates high frequency (HF) trading in the US Treasury market around major macroeconomic news announcements. Using a comprehensive tick-by-tick dataset, we identify HF trades and limit orders based on the speed of submission that is deemed beyond manual capacity. Our results show that while HF trading tends to narrow the spread after news announcements, it widens the spread and reduces the depth of limit order book during pre-announcement period amid information uncertainty. In addition, we show that HF trading tends to increase bond return volatility. Overall, HF trades are more informative than non-HF trades, but HF limit orders are less informative than non-HF limit orders. Finally, we provide evidence that HF trades enhance price efficiency during post-announcement period as information uncertainty resolves. JEL classification: G10, G12, G14