What a difference a term makes:the effect of educational attainment on marital outcomes in the UK

Abstract In the past, students in England and Wales born within the first 5 monthsof the academic year could leave school one term earlier than those born later inthe year. Focusing on women, those who were required to stay on an extra termmore frequently hold some academic qualification. Using having been required tostay on as an exogenous factor affecting academic attainment, we find that holding alow-level academic qualification has no effect on the probability of being currentlymarried for women aged 25 or above, but increases the probability of the husbandholding some academic qualification and being economically active.33 Halama

Treatment compliance and effectiveness of a cognitive behavioural intervention for low back pain : a complier average causal effect approach to the BeST data set

Background: Group cognitive behavioural intervention (CBI) is effective in reducing low-back pain and disability in comparison to advice in primary care. The aim of this analysis was to investigate the impact of compliance on estimates of treatment effect and to identify factors associated with compliance. Methods: In this multicentre trial, 701 adults with troublesome sub-acute or chronic low-back pain were recruited from 56 general practices. Participants were randomised to advice (control n = 233) or advice plus CBI (n = 468). Compliance was specified a priori as attending a minimum of three group sessions and the individual assessment. We estimated the complier average causal effect (CACE) of treatment. Results: Comparison of the CACE estimate of the mean treatment difference to the intention-to-treat (ITT) estimate at 12 months showed a greater benefit of CBI amongst participants compliant with treatment on the Roland Morris Questionnaire (CACE: 1.6 points, 95% CI 0.51 to 2.74; ITT: 1.3 points, 95% CI 0.55 to 2.07), the Modified Von Korff disability score (CACE: 12.1 points, 95% CI 6.07 to 18.17; ITT: 8.6 points, 95% CI 4.58 to 12.64) and the Modified von Korff pain score (CACE: 10.4 points, 95% CI 4.64 to 16.10; ITT: 7.0 points, 95% CI 3.26 to 10.74). People who were non-compliant were younger and had higher pain scores at randomisation. Conclusions: Treatment compliance is important in the effectiveness of group CBI. Younger people and those with more pain are at greater risk of non-compliance

Evaluating the Cost of Conscription in the Netherlands

military expenditures ; military service

Sufficient Covariate, Propensity Variable and Doubly Robust Estimation

Statistical causal inference from observational studies often requires adjustment for a possibly multi-dimensional variable, where dimension reduction is crucial. The propensity score, first introduced by Rosenbaum and Rubin, is a popular approach to such reduction. We address causal inference within Dawid's decision-theoretic framework, where it is essential to pay attention to sufficient covariates and their properties. We examine the role of a propensity variable in a normal linear model. We investigate both population-based and sample-based linear regressions, with adjustments for a multivariate covariate and for a propensity variable. In addition, we study the augmented inverse probability weighted estimator, involving a combination of a response model and a propensity model. In a linear regression with homoscedasticity, a propensity variable is proved to provide the same estimated causal effect as multivariate adjustment. An estimated propensity variable may, but need not, yield better precision than the true propensity variable. The augmented inverse probability weighted estimator is doubly robust and can improve precision if the propensity model is correctly specified

Leave the Drama on the Stage: The Effect of Cultural Participation on Health

The aim of this study is to estimate the causal effect of cultural participation on health status. Cultural activities may directly impact upon health through palliative coping or substituting health-compromising behaviors. Cultural engagement may also facilitate the development of social networks, which can improve health via social support and the dissemination of social health norms. Previous estimates on the arts-health relationship are potentially biased due to reverse causality and unobserved heterogeneity. Using individual-level data from Germany, we employ propensity-score matching methods. The treatment group is confined to individuals that visit cultural events at least once a month. The participation equation includes a rich set of personal characteristics that cover the respondents' demographic and social background, social capital and leisure-time activities, health-related lifestyle, personality and childhood environment. We explicitly consider reverse causality by including the pre-treatment trends in health outcomes among the covariates. To deal with time-fixed unobserved heterogeneity, we combine the matching model with a difference-indifference approach. We find that frequent cultural-event visits are unrelated to health once we account for unobserved persistent differences across individuals. However, examining the dose-response relationship we find positive mental-health effects of low levels of cultural participation compared to non-attendance. Our results may thus yield important insights on the effectiveness of arts participation as a means to reduce social inequalities in health

Subsidies and exports in Germany first evidence from enterprise panel data

We use newly available representative panel data for manufacturing enterprises in West and East Germany to investigate the link between production-related subsidies and exports. We document that only a small fraction of enterprises is subsidized, and that exports and subsidies are positively related. Using a matching approach to investigate the causal effect of subsidies on export activities we find no impact of subsidies on the probability to start exporting, and only weak evidence for an impact of subsidies on the share of exports in total sales in West Germany but no evidence in East Germany