ECONOMIC ISSUES IN FORMULATING POLICY FOR EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MITIGATION

This paper analyzes three issues in the economics of earthquake hazard mitigation policy. First, the economic rationale for the public role in mitigation policy is advanced. Second, an efficient level of mitigation is specified. And third, the deficiencies of current measures of losses are examined. Proper measures of losses are identified and the need for a regional economic model is developed. Unless losses can be properly measured it will be impossible to develop an efficient mitigation program for earthquake hazards. Copyright 1985 by The Policy Studies Organization.

Modelling international conflict under conditions of state level economic and political uncertainty

Formal models of international conflict have tended to concentrate on change across the security dimension, assuming that the state level economic and political dimensions are constant. However, the conclusion of the Cold War suggests that over the long run these dimensions are not constant; indeed, the development of economic power, state level limits on defence expenditures, structural impediments to economic change, and several other 'constants' clearly do have an endogenous role in international conflict. This paper suggests one strategy for their inclusion as a causal factor in conflict modelling.Conflict, balance of power, economic and political uncertainty,

Argumentation in Foreign Policy Settings

This is a study of argumentation in three different kinds of high level, confidential, foreign policy settings: a collegial setting, a bureaucratic setting, and a bargaining setting. The causal and value assertions of the participants were coded using the detailed records of these three settings. The data show to be inadequate a defense/ attack model of argumentation in which the participants support their own arguments to make them resistant to attack, while attacking the weak spots in others'stated positions. In fact, there are few assertions which are supported by specific evidence, almost no mutually supported causal arguments, and the assertions which were attacked were no less emphasized than the assertions which were not attacked. More in accord with the data is the novel-arguments approach in which the key factor in persuasive argumentation is the development of arguments which others have not already taken into account.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/67391/2/10.1177_002200277702100410.pd