Seasonal Asymmetric Price Transmission in Ghanaian Tomato Markets: Adapting Johansen’s Estimation Method

We assess market integration and price transmission of perishable agricultural produce in Sub-Saharan Africa by studying Ghanaian tomato markets which are characterized by pronounced seasonality in production and trade flows. We analyse the tomato markets of Ghana by simultaneously regarding its five most important markets, Navrongo, Techiman, Kumasi, Tamale and Accra, in a multivariate asymmetric price transmission framework. The estimation of the model is based on a unique dataset and on a modified version of the Johansen estimation procedure which is suitable for estimating such multivariate models. We estimate the price transmission parameters for four regimes which are a combination of the seasonal patterns in trade flows and asymmetries in the longrun price equilibrium between the most important production region (Techiman) and the most important consumption centre for tomatoes (Accra). We find strong evidence for integration of the five markets. In general, price transmission appears to be fast. Disequilibria mainly trigger price responses in the two production regions of Navrongo and Techiman. The regimes are found to matter for the whole system of tomato markets. Disequilibrium is shown to spillover between the price relationships. Consequently, tomato markets in Ghana appear to be integrated and function very well since price signals are rapidly passed through the country.asymmetric price transmission, cointegration, Ghana, regime-dependent model, seasonality, tomato, vector error-correction model, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, C32, Q11, Q13, F14, F15,

Movement Restrictions, Agricultural Trade and Price Transmission between Israel and the West Bank

Imposing military security measures as a consequence of violent conflict may lead to depressing economic effects for all parties involved. One implication is the limited ability to conduct trade, which in turn brings about welfare losses to the economic agents involved and may threat livelihoods and food security. This paper focuses on the consequences of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as a prominent example, on bilateral agricultural trade and price dynamics. For this purpose, we consider high-frequency wholesale price data and data on movement restrictions (complete closures) which were imposed by the Israeli Defense Forces in the West Bank between May 2007 and December 2008. In particular, we study the price dynamics of cucumbers and apples, two crops which play an important role for bilateral trade. The spatial and temporal price relationships are assessed using a cointegration framework. Specifically, we use a novel multivariate exogenous regime-switching vector error correction model and employ a recently developed extension of Johansen’s cointegration estimation method. We find the wholesale markets of cucumbers and apples in Hebron and Tel Aviv to be integrated. For both products, the price differentials between both markets quickly adjust to short run deviations from the long-run price equilibria. The regime-dependent model suggests that the movement restrictions effectively cut off both markets from each other temporarily.Agricultural trade, cointegration, Israel, regime-dependent error correction, price transmission, Palestinian territories., International Relations/Trade, Marketing, Political Economy,

Interdependencies between fossil fuel and renewable energy markets: the German biodiesel market

With this paper, we provide the first quantitative investigation of vertical price transmission in the biodiesel supply chain in Germany with the focus on the developments during the food crisis and the impact of subsidized US biodiesel exports. With the strong promotion of the production and use of biodiesel during the first half of the past decade, the German biodiesel market became the largest national biodiesel market worldwide. This analysis utilizes prices of rapeseed oil, soya oil, biodiesel and crude oil over a sample period covering the rapid growth of the German demand in 2002 until its decline in 2009. The effects of both the market development and different policies on price transmission are analyzed in detail. Due to the numerous changes in the market, a regime-dependent Markov-switching vector error correction model is applied. The results indicate that regimes with differing error-correction behavior govern the transmission process among the various prices. Evidence was found for a strong impact of crude oil price on biodiesel prices, and of biodiesel prices on rapeseed oil prices. However, in both cases, the price adjustment behavior is found to be regime dependent, and the regime occurrence in both market segments shows similar patterns. In relation to crude oil a weak adjustment of biodiesel prices is found to be dominating in the phase of market expansion. This changed from 2007 on when stronger error-correction is found, reflected by a stronger role of the crude oil price developments. In the relationship of biodiesel to the vegetable oils, most of the growth period was dominated by a regime characterized by weak price adjustments. From 2007 on, past own price changes and past changes in soya oil prices had a strong impact particularly on rapeseed oil prices. The biodiesel price development was less important. Reasons for this are substantial changes in the market structure. The biodiesel market developed as an insulated market; biodiesel was mainly produced from rapeseed oil until 2006. Thereafter, biodiesel was increasingly used for blends and sales decreased during the food crisis when agricultural commodity prices rose sharply. At the same time, strong import competition arose from subsidized US B99. The superiority of rapeseed oil for biodiesel production diminished. The uncertainty prevailing in the market from 2007 onwards is reflected by frequent regime changes. --biodiesel,cointegration,nonlinear vector error correction model,regimedependent model,Markov-switching

INVESTIGATING RAPESEED PRICE VOLATILITIES IN THE COURSE OF THE FOOD CRISIS

Multivariate GARCH, MATIF, rapeseed, crude oil, volatilities, food crisis, Demand and Price Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C32, E44, G1, Q11, Q13, Q49,

Semiparametric Evidence on the Nature of Price Transmission in Tanzanian Maize Markets

Maize is a major staple food in Sub-Saharan Africa. Monthly maize prices in Tanzania are analyzed since the country is an important maize producer and exporter in East Africa. We analyze price transmission between the five most important urban regions of Tanzania between 2000 and 2008 which correspond to major maize production or consumption areas. We propose a novel method for the analysis. The semiparametric vector error-correction model allows the partial impact of the past deviations from price equilibria on current price changes to be potentially nonlinear. The nonparametric estimates of these partial influences suggest that they can be adequately modeled by linear functions.cointegration, maize, nonlinear time series model, price transmission, semiparametric model, Tanzania., Crop Production/Industries, Marketing, C32, Q11, Q13,

A Comparison of Threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis

We compare two regime-dependent econometric models for price transmission analysis, namely the threshold vector error correction model and Markov-switching vector error correction model. We first provide a detailed characterization of each of the models which is followed by a comprehensive comparison. We find that the assumptions regarding the nature of their regime-switching mechanisms are fundamentally different so that each model is suitable for a certain type of nonlinear price transmission. Furthermore, we conduct a Monte Carlo experiment in order to study the performance of the estimation techniques of both models for simulated data. We find that both models are adequate for studying price transmission since their characteristics match the underlying economic theory and allow hence for an easy interpretation. Nevertheless, the results of the corresponding estimation techniques do not reproduce the true parameters and are not robust against nuisance parameters. The comparison is supplemented by a review of empirical studies in price transmission analysis in which mostly the threshold vector error correction model is applied.price transmission, market integration, threshold vector error correction model, Markov-switching vector error correction model, comparison, nonlinear time series analysis, Agricultural Finance,

The Integration of the Conventional and Organic Wheat Market

Crop Production/Industries, Marketing,

Assessing Seasonal Asymmetric Price Transmission in Ghanaian Tomato Markets With the Johansen Estimation Method

We assess market integration and price transmission of perishable agricultural produce in Sub-Saharan Africa by studying Ghanaian tomato markets which are characterized by pronounced seasonality in production and trade flows. We analyse the tomato markets of Ghana by simultaneously regarding its five most important markets, Navrongo, Techiman, Kumasi, Tamale and Accra, in a multivariate asymmetric price transmission framework. The estimation of the model is based on a unique dataset and on a modified version of the Johansen estimation procedure which is suitable for estimating such multivariate models. We estimate the price transmission parameters for four regimes which are a combination of the seasonal patterns in trade flows and asymmetries in the long-run price equilibrium between the most important production region (Techiman) and the most important consumption centre for tomatoes (Accra). We find strong evidence for integration of the five markets. In general, price transmission appears to be fast. Disequilibria mainly trigger price responses in the two production regions of Navrongo and Techiman. The regimes are found to matter for the whole system of tomato markets. Disequilibrium is shown to spillover between the price relationships. Consequently, tomato markets in Ghana appear to be integrated and function very well since price signals are rapidly passed through the country

Structural change in European calf markets: Policy decoupling and movement restrictions

We analyse weekly calf prices from 2003 to 2009 to assess the impact of two important events which changed the structure of European cattle markets. We find the four European calf markets studied to be integrated. The decoupling of farm payments in the framework of the 2003 reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy is found to reduce prices. We ascertain that the outbreak of the Blue Tongue disease induced a structural change in some of the markets. Using counterfactual scenarios, we provide an indication of the effects resulting from granting member states a high degree of discretion in implementation.2003 CAP reform, cattle market, decoupling, European Union, market integration, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

Spatial market integration in the EU beef and veal sector: policy decoupling and export bans

The 2003 reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy of the Euro-pean Union allowed for discretionary implementation among member states. Discretion was allowed with respect to the timing and the degree of decoupling of policy support. Differences among member states were particularly apparent in the European beef and veal sector. Using weekly data from 2003 to 2009, we assess the consequences of different national implementation strategies of the reforms on market integration for young calves, which are intensively traded in the European Union. Time series properties are analyzed with a range unit-root test after which a multivariate cointegration model is estimated. We find that the calf markets in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Spain are integrated and tightly interrelated as evidenced by both short and long-run price transmis-sion. We also find strong statistical support for the hypothesis that decoupling reduced calf price levels. Additionally, we ascertain that the outbreak of the Blue Tongue disease induced a structural change in parts of the EU calf market. Using counterfactual scenarios, we provide an indication of the cost involved with granting member states such a high degree of discretion in implementation. We conclude that the national markets studied here belong to a common market. --2003 CAP reform,calf market,decoupling,EU,market integration,price transmission