Approaches for combining primary care electronic health record data from multiple sources: a systematic review of observational studies

OBJECTIVE: To identify observational studies which used data from more than one primary care electronic health record (EHR) database, and summarise key characteristics including: objective and rationale for using multiple data sources; methods used to manage, analyse and (where applicable) combine data; and approaches used to assess and report heterogeneity between data sources. DESIGN: A systematic review of published studies. DATA SOURCES: Pubmed and Embase databases were searched using list of named primary care EHR databases; supplementary hand searches of reference list of studies were retained after initial screening. STUDY SELECTION: Observational studies published between January 2000 and May 2018 were selected, which included at least two different primary care EHR databases. RESULTS: 6054 studies were identified from database and hand searches, and 109 were included in the final review, the majority published between 2014 and 2018. Included studies used 38 different primary care EHR data sources. Forty-seven studies (44%) were descriptive or methodological. Of 62 analytical studies, 22 (36%) presented separate results from each database, with no attempt to combine them; 29 (48%) combined individual patient data in a one-stage meta-analysis and 21 (34%) combined estimates from each database using two-stage meta-analysis. Discussion and exploration of heterogeneity was inconsistent across studies. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing patterns and trends in different populations, or in different primary care EHR databases from the same populations, is important and a common objective for multi-database studies. When combining results from several databases using meta-analysis, provision of separate results from each database is helpful for interpretation. We found that these were often missing, particularly for studies using one-stage approaches, which also often lacked details of any statistical adjustment for heterogeneity and/or clustering. For two-stage meta-analysis, a clear rationale should be provided for choice of fixed effect and/or random effects or other models

How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

BACKGROUND: Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. METHODS: We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. RESULTS: By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. CONCLUSIONS: If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with similar demographic and disease changes will likely experience comparable rises in need

Managing clinical uncertainty in older people towards the end of life: a systematic review of person-centred tools.

BACKGROUND: Older people with multi-morbidities commonly experience an uncertain illness trajectory. Clinical uncertainty is challenging to manage, with risk of poor outcomes. Person-centred care is essential to align care and treatment with patient priorities and wishes. Use of evidence-based tools may support person-centred management of clinical uncertainty. We aimed to develop a logic model of person-centred evidence-based tools to manage clinical uncertainty in older people. METHODS: A systematic mixed-methods review with a results-based convergent synthesis design: a process-based iterative logic model was used, starting with a conceptual framework of clinical uncertainty in older people towards the end of life. This underpinned the methods. Medline, PsycINFO, CINAHL and ASSIA were searched from 2000 to December 2019, using a combination of terms: "uncertainty" AND "palliative care" AND "assessment" OR "care planning". Studies were included if they developed or evaluated a person-centred tool to manage clinical uncertainty in people aged ≥65 years approaching the end of life and quality appraised using QualSyst. Quantitative and qualitative data were narratively synthesised and thematically analysed respectively and integrated into the logic model. RESULTS: Of the 17,095 articles identified, 44 were included, involving 63 tools. There was strong evidence that tools used in clinical care could improve identification of patient priorities and needs (n = 14 studies); that tools support partnership working between patients and practitioners (n = 8) and that tools support integrated care within and across teams and with patients and families (n = 14), improving patient outcomes such as quality of death and dying and satisfaction with care. Communication of clinical uncertainty to patients and families had the least evidence and is challenging to do well. CONCLUSION: The identified logic model moves current knowledge from conceptualising clinical uncertainty to applying evidence-based tools to optimise person-centred management and improve patient outcomes. Key causal pathways are identification of individual priorities and needs, individual care and treatment and integrated care. Communication of clinical uncertainty to patients is challenging and requires training and skill and the use of tools to support practice

Digital Sketching and Haptic Sketch Modelling during Product Design and Development

During the professional practice of industrial design, digital methods are used extensively to support the generation, development and specification of creative three dimensional (3D) form. Despite the increasing capabilities of digital methods, the distinctive nuances of current practice continue to require the use of non-digital methods, particularly during the highly creative concept generation activities. This paper reports on a research project that combined emerging and established digital design technologies to define an approach for total Digital Industrial Design (DID) that employed only digital methods (e.g. no pens/paper) with no post-process finishing (e.g. smoothing/painting of rapid prototype parts). To evaluate this theoretical approach, action research was employed in which all phases of DID were used to design two stylistic variations of a consumer product with data collection using a diary through the design process and coded analysis of outcomes. The paper concludes that DID has the greatest potential for change and benefit during the concept generation phase, where haptic feedback modelling and monochrome 3D printing have the capacity to replicate some of the qualities of tactile form-giving that is associated with workshop-based sketch modelling by hand. When integrated with photorealistic visualisation, low fidelity appearance models have the potential to reduce design timescales. To maximise impact, the case study was translated into in a web-based resource (http://www.lboro.ac.uk/microsites/lds/did/) to facilitate understanding of the process and designed outcomes from DID

Hypoxia-regulated glucose transporter Glut-1 may influence chemosensitivity to some alkylating agents: Results of EORTC (First Translational Award) study of the relevance of tumour hypoxia to the outcome of chemotherapy in human tumour-derived xenografts

Tumour hypoxia confers poor prognosis in a wide range of solid tumours, due to an increased malignancy, increased likelihood of metastasis and treatment resistance. Poorly oxygenated tumours are resistant to both radiation therapy and chemotherapy. However, although the link between radiation therapy and hypoxia is well established in a range of clinical studies, evidence of its influence on chemotherapy response is lacking. In this study, a panel of human tumour-derived xenografts that have been characterised previously for in vivo response to a large series of anti-cancer agents, and have been found to show chemosensitivities that correlate strongly with the parent tumour, were used to address this issue. Immunohistochemistry was carried out on formalinfixed, paraffin-embedded sections of xenograft samples to detect expression of the intrinsic hypoxia marker Glut-1 and adducts of the bioreductive hypoxia marker pimonidazole. Glut-1 scores correlated significantly with T/C values for CCNU sensitivity (r=0.439, P=0.036, n=23) and showed a borderline significant correlation with dacarbazine T/C (r=0.405, P=0.076, n=20). However, there was no correlation between both Glut-1 and pimonidazole scores and T/C obtained for the bioreductive drug mitomycin C. The use of human tumour-derived xenografts offers a potentially useful way of using archival material to determine the influence of hypoxia and other tumour-microenvironmental factors on chemosensitivity without the direct use of human subjects

The influence of clouds on radical concentrations: observations and modelling studies of HOx during the Hill Cap Cloud Thuringia (HCCT) campaign in 2010

The potential for chemistry occurring in cloud droplets to impact atmospheric composition has been known for some time. However, the lack of direct observations and uncertainty in the magnitude of these reactions led to this area being overlooked in most chemistry transport models. Here we present observations from Mt Schmücke, Germany, of the HO2 radical made alongside a suite of cloud measurements. HO2 concentrations were depleted in-cloud by up to 90% with the rate of heterogeneous loss of HO2 to clouds necessary to bring model and measurements into agreement, demonstrating a dependence on droplet surface area and pH. This provides the first observationally derived assessment for the uptake coefficient of HO2 to cloud droplets and was found to be in good agreement with theoretically derived parameterisations. Global model simulations, including this cloud uptake, showed impacts on the oxidising capacity of the troposphere that depended critically on whether the HO2 uptake leads to production of H2O2 or H2O

Cluster and virial expansions for the multi-species tonks gas

We consider a mixture of non-overlapping rods of different lengths ℓk moving in R or Z. Our main result are necessary and sufficient convergence criteria for the expansion of the pressure in terms of the activities zk and the densities ρk. This provides an explicit example against which to test known cluster expansion criteria, and illustrates that for non-negative interactions, the virial expansion can converge in a domain much larger than the activity expansion. In addition, we give explicit formulas that generalize the well-known relation between non-overlapping rods and labelled rooted trees. We also prove that for certain choices of the activities, the system can undergo a condensation transition akin to that of the zero-range process. The key tool is a fixed point equation for the pressure

Getting to the Root of Fine Motor Skill Performance in Dentistry: Brain Activity During Dental Tasks in a Virtual Reality Haptic Simulation.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence considering the relationship between movement-specific reinvestment (a dimension of personality which refers to the propensity for individuals to consciously monitor and control their movements) and working memory during motor skill performance. Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) measuring oxyhemoglobin demands in the frontal cortex during performance of virtual reality (VR) psychomotor tasks can be used to examine this research gap. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the potential relationship between the propensity to reinvest and blood flow to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortices of the brain. A secondary aim was to determine the propensity to reinvest and performance during 2 dental tasks carried out using haptic VR simulators. METHODS: We used fNIRS to assess oxygen demands in 24 undergraduate dental students during 2 dental tasks (clinical, nonclinical) on a VR haptic simulator. We used the Movement-Specific Reinvestment Scale questionnaire to assess the students' propensity to reinvest. RESULTS: Students with a high propensity for movement-specific reinvestment displayed significantly greater oxyhemoglobin demands in an area associated with working memory during the nonclinical task (Spearman correlation, rs=.49, P=.03). CONCLUSIONS: This small-scale study suggests that neurophysiological differences are evident between high and low reinvesters during a dental VR task in terms of oxyhemoglobin demands in an area associated with working memory

How integrated are neurology and palliative care services? Results of a multicentre mapping exercise

Background: Patients affected by progressive long-term neurological conditions might benefit from specialist palliative care involvement. However, little is known on how neurology and specialist palliative care services interact. This study aimed to map the current level of connections and integration between these services. Methods: The mapping exercise was conducted in eight centres with neurology and palliative care services in the United Kingdom. The data were provided by the respective neurology and specialist palliative care teams. Questions focused on: i) catchment and population served; ii) service provision and staffing; iii) integration and relationships. Results: Centres varied in size of catchment areas (39-5,840 square miles) and population served (142,000-3,500,000). Neurology and specialist palliative care were often not co-terminus. Service provisions for neurology and specialist palliative care were also varied. For example, neurology services varied in the number and type of provided clinics and palliative care services in the settings they work in. Integration was most developed in Motor Neuron Disease (MND), e.g., joint meetings were often held, followed by Parkinsonism (made up of Parkinson’s Disease (PD), Multiple-System Atrophy (MSA) and Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (PSP), with integration being more developed for MSA and PSP) and least in Multiple Sclerosis (MS), e.g., most sites had no formal links. The number of neurology patients per annum receiving specialist palliative care reflected these differences in integration (range: 9–88 MND, 3–25 Parkinsonism, and 0–5 MS). Conclusions: This mapping exercise showed heterogeneity in service provision and integration between neurology and specialist palliative care services, which varied not only between sites but also between diseases. This highlights the need and opportunities for improved models of integration, which should be rigorously tested for effectiveness