Implementation and evaluation of a new methane model within a dynamic global vegetation model: LPJ-WHyMe v1.3.1

For the first time, a model that simulates methane emissions from northern peatlands is incorporated directly into a dynamic global vegetation model. The model, LPJ-WHyMe (LPJ <B>W</B>etland <B>Hy</B>drology and <B>Me</B>thane), was previously modified in order to simulate peatland hydrology, permafrost dynamics and peatland vegetation. LPJ-WHyMe simulates methane emissions using a mechanistic approach, although the use of some empirical relationships and parameters is unavoidable. The model simulates methane production, three pathways of methane transport (diffusion, plant-mediated transport and ebullition) and methane oxidation. A sensitivity test was conducted to identify the most important factors influencing methane emissions, followed by a parameter fitting exercise to find the best combination of parameter values for individual sites and over all sites. A comparison of model results to observations from seven sites resulted in normalised root mean square errors (NRMSE) of 0.40 to 1.15 when using the best site parameter combinations and 0.68 to 1.42 when using the best overall parameter combination

Ecosystem effects of CO2 concentration: evidence from past climates

Atmospheric CO2 concentration has varied from minima of 170-200 ppm in glacials to maxima of 280-300 ppm in the recent interglacials. Photosynthesis by C-3 plants is highly sensitive to CO2 concentration variations in this range. Physiological consequences of the CO2 changes should therefore be discernible in palaeodata. Several lines of evidence support this expectation. Reduced terrestrial carbon storage during glacials, indicated by the shift in stable isotope composition of dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean, cannot be explained by climate or sea-level changes. It is however consistent with predictions of current process-based models that propagate known physiological CO2 effects into net primary production at the ecosystem scale. Restricted forest cover during glacial periods, indicated by pollen assemblages dominated by non-arboreal taxa, cannot be reproduced accurately by palaeoclimate models unless CO2 effects on C-3-C-4 plant competition are also modelled. It follows that methods to reconstruct climate from palaeodata should account for CO2 concentration changes. When they do so, they yield results more consistent with palaeoclimate models. In conclusion, the palaeorecord of the Late Quaternary, interpreted with the help of climate and ecosystem models, provides evidence that CO2 effects at the ecosystem scale are neither trivial nor transient

A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth in a semi-arid woodland

We used a light-use efficiency model of photosynthesis coupled with a dynamic carbon allocation and tree-growth model to simulate annual growth of the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area, which were estimated by Bayesian optimization. The model reproduced the general pattern of interannual variability in radial growth (tree-ring width), including the response to the shift in precipitation regimes that occurred in the 1960s. Simulated and observed responses to climate were consistent. Both showed a significant positive response of tree-ring width to total photosynthetically active radiation received and to the ratio of modeled actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration, and a significant negative response to vapour pressure deficit. However, the simulations showed an enhancement of radial growth in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) ([CO2]) during recent decades that is not present in the observations. The discrepancy disappeared when the model was recalibrated on successive 30-year windows. Then the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area increases by 14% (from 0.127 to 0.144 kg C m-2) as [CO2] increased while the other three estimated parameters remained constant. The absence of a signal of increasing [CO2] has been noted in many tree-ring records, despite the enhancement of photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency resulting from increasing [CO2]. Our simulations suggest that this behaviour could be explained as a consequence of a shift towards below-ground carbon allocation

A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth and carbon allocation in a semi-arid woodland

Many studies have failed to show an increase in the radial growth of trees in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] despite the expected enhancement of photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency at high [CO2]. A global light use efficiency model of photosynthesis, coupled with a generic carbon allocation and tree-growth model based on mass balance and tree geometry principles, was used to simulate annual ring-width variations for the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values for the tree-growth model were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area (ζ), which were calibrated to the ring-width measurements by Bayesian optimization. This procedure imposed a strong constraint on ζ. Modelled and observed ring-widths showed quantitatively similar, positive responses to total annual photosynthetically active radiation and soil moisture, and similar negative responses to vapour pressure deficit. The model also produced enhanced radial growth in response to increasing [CO2] during recent decades, but the data do not show this. Recalibration in moving 30-year time windows produced temporal shifts in the estimated values of ζ, including an increase by ca 12% since the 1960s, and eliminated the [CO2]-induced increase in radial growth. The potential effect of CO2 on ring-width was thus shown to be small compared to effects of climate variability even in this semi-arid climate. It could be counteracted in the model by a modest allocation shift, as has been observed in field experiments with raised [CO2]

Major features and forcing of high‐latitude northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation using a 110,000‐year‐long glaciochemical series

The Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 glaciochemical series (sodium, potassium, ammonium, calcium, magnesium, sulfate, nitrate, and chloride) provides a unique view of the chemistry of the atmosphere and the history of atmospheric circulation over both the high latitudes and mid‐low latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Interpretation of this record reveals a diverse array of environmental signatures that include the documentation of anthropogenically derived pollutants, volcanic and biomass burning events, storminess over marine surfaces, continental aridity and biogenic source strength plus information related to the controls on both high‐ and low‐frequency climate events of the last 110,000 years. Climate forcings investigated include changes in insolation of the order of the major orbital cycles that control the long‐term behavior of atmospheric circulation patterns through changes in ice volume (sea level), events such as the Heinrich events (massive discharges of icebergs first identified in the marine record) that are found to operate on a 6100‐year cycle due largely to the lagged response of ice sheets to changes in insolation and consequent glacier dynamics, and rapid climate change events (massive reorganizations of atmospheric circulation) that are demonstrated to operate on 1450‐year cycles. Changes in insolation and associated positive feedbacks related to ice sheets may assist in explaining favorable time periods and controls on the amplitude of massive rapid climate change events. Explanation for the exact timing and global synchroneity of these events is, however, more complicated. Preliminary evidence points to possible solar variability‐climate associations for these events and perhaps others that are embedded in our ice‐core‐derived atmospheric circulation records

Simple process-led algorithms for simulating habitats (SPLASH v.2.0): robust calculations of water and energy fluxes

The current representation of key processes in land surface models (LSMs) for estimating water and energy balances still relies heavily on empirical equations that require calibration oriented to site-specific characteristics. When multiple parameters are used, different combinations of parameter values can produce equally acceptable results, leading to a risk of obtaining “the right answers for the wrong reasons”, compromising the reproducibility of the simulations and limiting the ecological interpretability of the results. To address this problem and reduce the need for free parameters, here we present novel formulations based on first principles to calculate key components of water and energy balances, extending the already parsimonious SPLASH model v.1.0 (Davis et al., 2017, GMD). We found analytical solutions for many processes, enabling us to increase spatial resolution and include the terrain effects directly in the calculations without unreasonably inflating computational demands. This calibration-free model estimates quantities such as net radiation, evapotranspiration, condensation, soil water content, surface runoff, subsurface lateral flow, and snow-water equivalent. These quantities are derived from readily available meteorological data such as near-surface air temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, as well as soil physical properties. Whenever empirical formulations were required, e.g., pedotransfer functions and albedo–snow cover relationships, we selected and optimized the best-performing equations through a combination of remote sensing and globally distributed terrestrial observational datasets. Simulations at global scales at different resolutions were run to evaluate spatial patterns, while simulations with point-based observations were run to evaluate seasonal patterns using data from hundreds of stations and comparisons with the VIC-3L model, demonstrating improved performance based on statistical tests and observational comparisons. In summary, our model offers a more robust, reproducible, and ecologically interpretable solution compared to more complex LSMs.</p