Wiener Chaos and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model

In this we paper we recast the Cox--Ingersoll--Ross model of interest rates into the chaotic representation recently introduced by Hughston and Rafailidis. Beginning with the ``squared Gaussian representation'' of the CIR model, we find a simple expression for the fundamental random variable X. By use of techniques from the theory of infinite dimensional Gaussian integration, we derive an explicit formula for the n-th term of the Wiener chaos expansion of the CIR model, for n=0,1,2,.... We then derive a new expression for the price of a zero coupon bond which reveals a connection between Gaussian measures and Ricatti differential equations.Comment: 27 page

Sine-Gordon Revisited

We study the sine-Gordon model in two dimensional space time in two different domains. For beta > 8 pi and weak coupling, we introduce an ultraviolet cutoff and study the infrared behavior. A renormalization group analysis shows that the model is asymptotically free in the infrared. For beta < 8 pi and weak coupling, we introduce an infrared cutoff and study the ultraviolet behavior. A renormalization group analysis shows that the model is asymptotically free in the ultraviolet.Comment: 43 pages, Latex 2.0

Statistical Inference for Time-changed Brownian Motion Credit Risk Models

We consider structural credit modeling in the important special case where the log-leverage ratio of the firm is a time-changed Brownian motion (TCBM) with the time-change taken to be an independent increasing process. Following the approach of Black and Cox, one defines the time of default to be the first passage time for the log-leverage ratio to cross the level zero. Rather than adopt the classical notion of first passage, with its associated numerical challenges, we accept an alternative notion applicable for TCBMs called "first passage of the second kind". We demonstrate how statistical inference can be efficiently implemented in this new class of models. This allows us to compare the performance of two versions of TCBMs, the variance gamma (VG) model and the exponential jump model (EXP), to the Black-Cox model. When applied to a 4.5 year long data set of weekly credit default swap (CDS) quotes for Ford Motor Co, the conclusion is that the two TCBM models, with essentially one extra parameter, can significantly outperform the classic Black-Cox model.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures, 2 table