Cognitive architectures as Lakatosian research programmes: two case studies

Cognitive architectures - task-general theories of the structure and function of the complete cognitive system - are sometimes argued to be more akin to frameworks or belief systems than scientific theories. The argument stems from the apparent non-falsifiability of existing cognitive architectures. Newell was aware of this criticism and argued that architectures should be viewed not as theories subject to Popperian falsification, but rather as Lakatosian research programs based on cumulative growth. Newell's argument is undermined because he failed to demonstrate that the development of Soar, his own candidate architecture, adhered to Lakatosian principles. This paper presents detailed case studies of the development of two cognitive architectures, Soar and ACT-R, from a Lakatosian perspective. It is demonstrated that both are broadly Lakatosian, but that in both cases there have been theoretical progressions that, according to Lakatosian criteria, are pseudo-scientific. Thus, Newell's defense of Soar as a scientific rather than pseudo-scientific theory is not supported in practice. The ACT series of architectures has fewer pseudo-scientific progressions than Soar, but it too is vulnerable to accusations of pseudo-science. From this analysis, it is argued that successive versions of theories of the human cognitive architecture must explicitly address five questions to maintain scientific credibility

Staff unavailability and safe staffing: Are headroom allowances 'realistic'?

Background “Hours per patient day” (HPPD) is an internationally recognised resourcing metric used to measure direct nursing care hours. However, hospitals often under-estimate indirect time (unavailability) and specify unrealistic targets for planned unavailability (“headroom”). Aims To investigate the disparities between planned unavailability (“headroom”) and actual staff unavailability. Methods Data were collected from the e-rostering systems of 87 NHS Trusts. This was compared with published data from 35 roster policies. Results Many hospitals use headroom as a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) and set targets for its components in their roster policies. This research highlights large variations in unavailability (15.8% to 33.6%) and lower variations in headroom (16-26%). Conclusions Hospitals operationalise headroom around an idealised ‘target’ value. This may be detrimental. Compelling a unit with unavailability between 28-30%, to adopt an institution-wide headroom of, say, 22% may, at best, increase spending on bank/agency staff, or, at worse, jeopardise patient safety

Postnatal parental smoking: an important risk factor for SIDS

Background: Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) is the unexpected death of an infant that remains unexplained after a thorough investigation of the circumstances, family history, paediatric investigation and complete autopsy. In Western society, it is the leading cause of post-neonatal death below 1 year of age. In the Netherlands, the SIDS incidence is very low, which offers opportunities to assess the importance of old and new environmental risk factors. For this purpose, cases were collected through pathology departments and the working group on SIDS of the Dutch Paediatrician Foundation. A total of 142 cases were included; these occurred after the parental education on sleeping position (1987), restricted to the international age criteria and had no histological explanation. Age-matched healthy controls (N∈=∈2,841) came from a survey of the Netherlands Paediatric Surveillance Unit, completed between November 2002 and April 2003. A multivariate analysis was performed to determine the risk factors for SIDS, including sleeping position, antenatal maternal smoking, postnatal parental smoking, premature birth, gender, lack of breastfeeding and socio-economic status. Postnatal smoking was identified as an important environmental risk factor for SIDS (OR one parent∈=∈2.5 [1.2, 5.0]; both parents∈=∈5.77 [2.2, 15.5]; maternal∈=∈2.7 [1.0, 6.4]; paternal∈=∈2.4 [1.3, 4.5] ) as was prone sleeping (OR put prone to sleep∈=∈21.5 [10.6, 43.5]; turned prone during sleep∈=∈100 [46, 219]). Premature birth was also significantly associated with SIDS (OR∈=∈2.4 [1.2, 4.8]). Conclusion: Postnatal parental smoking is currently a major environmental risk factor for SIDS in the Netherlands together with the long-established risk of prone sleeping

Annotation of two large contiguous regions from the Haemonchus contortus genome using RNA-seq and comparative analysis with Caenorhabditis elegans

The genomes of numerous parasitic nematodes are currently being sequenced, but their complexity and size, together with high levels of intra-specific sequence variation and a lack of reference genomes, makes their assembly and annotation a challenging task. Haemonchus contortus is an economically significant parasite of livestock that is widely used for basic research as well as for vaccine development and drug discovery. It is one of many medically and economically important parasites within the strongylid nematode group. This group of parasites has the closest phylogenetic relationship with the model organism Caenorhabditis elegans, making comparative analysis a potentially powerful tool for genome annotation and functional studies. To investigate this hypothesis, we sequenced two contiguous fragments from the H. contortus genome and undertook detailed annotation and comparative analysis with C. elegans. The adult H. contortus transcriptome was sequenced using an Illumina platform and RNA-seq was used to annotate a 409 kb overlapping BAC tiling path relating to the X chromosome and a 181 kb BAC insert relating to chromosome I. In total, 40 genes and 12 putative transposable elements were identified. 97.5% of the annotated genes had detectable homologues in C. elegans of which 60% had putative orthologues, significantly higher than previous analyses based on EST analysis. Gene density appears to be less in H. contortus than in C. elegans, with annotated H. contortus genes being an average of two-to-three times larger than their putative C. elegans orthologues due to a greater intron number and size. Synteny appears high but gene order is generally poorly conserved, although areas of conserved microsynteny are apparent. C. elegans operons appear to be partially conserved in H. contortus. Our findings suggest that a combination of RNA-seq and comparative analysis with C. elegans is a powerful approach for the annotation and analysis of strongylid nematode genomes

Field evidence for the upwind velocity shift at the crest of low dunes

Wind topographically forced by hills and sand dunes accelerates on the upwind (stoss) slopes and reduces on the downwind (lee) slopes. This secondary wind regime, however, possesses a subtle effect, reported here for the first time from field measurements of near-surface wind velocity over a low dune: the wind velocity close to the surface reaches its maximum upwind of the crest. Our field-measured data show that this upwind phase shift of velocity with respect to topography is found to be in quantitative agreement with the prediction of hydrodynamical linear analysis for turbulent flows with first order closures. This effect, together with sand transport spatial relaxation, is at the origin of the mechanisms of dune initiation, instability and growth.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures. Version accepted for publication in Boundary-Layer Meteorolog

Swimming pool thermal energy storage, an alternative for distributed cooling energy storage

© 2020 The Author(s) The rise in distributed renewable energy generation creates a growing need to find viable solutions for energy storage to match energy demand and supply at any time. This paper evaluates the possibility of using swimming pools as a long-term cooling energy storage solution, i.e., Swimming Pool Thermal Energy Storage (SPTES). This technology allows a small building to store solar energy for cooling purposes in a yearly cycle, by filling the pool with ice slurry in winter and using that ice to cool the house in the summertime. Additionally, the pool can be used as a heat sink for a heat pump to heat the house during the winter. Results show that the energy storage cost of 0.078 US$kWhe−1 is substantially smaller when compared with batteries (125 US$ kWhe−1). This makes SPTES a good alternative to support the development of 100% renewable energy systems in locations where the climate has a highly seasonal variation in temperature and the cooling demand is high in summer

Surgery, with or without tamoxifen, vs tamoxifen alone for older women with operable breast cancer: Cochrane review

The published literature comparing surgery, with or without adjuvant endocrine therapy, with endocrine therapy alone in older women with operable breast cancer was systematically reviewed.The design used is Cochrane review. Randomised controlled trials retrieved from the Cochrane Breast Cancer Group Specialised Register on 29 June 2005. Eligible studies recruited women aged 70 years or over with operable breast cancer, fit for surgery under general anaesthia. The studies compared surgery (either mastectomy or wide local excision, with or without endocrine therapy) to endocrine therapy alone. Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Double data extraction and quality assessment were undertaken. Seven eligible trials were identified of which six had published time-to-event data. The quality of the allocation concealment was adequate in three studies and unclear in the remainder. In each case the endocrine therapy used was tamoxifen. When surgery alone was compared to endocrine therapy alone, there was no significant difference in OS (hazard ratio (HR) 0.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74–1.30, P=0.9), but a significant difference in PFS (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.39–0.77, P=0.0006). When surgery with adjuvant endocrine therapy was compared to endocrine therapy alone, there was no significant difference in OS (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.73–1.00, P=0.06), but a significant difference in PFS (HR 0.65 (95% CI 0.53–0.81, P=0.0001) for surgery plus endocrine therapy vs primary endocrine. The regimens have different side effect profiles with one study suggesting increased psychosocial morbidity at 3 months in the surgical arm, which resolves by 2 years. Primary endocrine therapy with tamoxifen is associated with inferior local disease control but non-inferior survival to surgery for breast cancer in older women. Trials are needed to evaluate appropriate selection criteria for its use in terms of patient co-morbidity and quality of life. Trials are needed to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of aromatase inhibitors as primary therapy for this population

Neurobehavioral consequences of chronic intrauterine opioid exposure in infants and preschool children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

<b>Background</b><p></p> It is assumed within the accumulated literature that children born of pregnant opioid dependent mothers have impaired neurobehavioral function as a consequence of chronic intrauterine opioid use.<p></p> <b>Methods</b><p></p> Quantitative and systematic review of the literature on the consequences of chronic maternal opioid use during pregnancy on neurobehavioral function of children was conducted using the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. We searched Cinahl, EMBASE, PsychINFO and MEDLINE between the periods of January 1995 to January 2012.<p></p> <b>Results</b><p></p> There were only 5 studies out of the 200 identified that quantitatively reported on neurobehavioral function of children after maternal opioid use during pregnancy. All 5 were case control studies with the number of exposed subjects within the studies ranging from 33–143 and 45–85 for the controls. This meta-analysis showed no significant impairments, at a non-conservative significance level of p < 0.05, for cognitive, psychomotor or observed behavioural outcomes for chronic intra-uterine exposed infants and pre-school children compared to non-exposed infants and children. However, all domains suggested a trend to poor outcomes in infants/children of opioid using mothers. The magnitude of all possible effects was small according to Cohen’s benchmark criteria.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b><p></p> Chronic intra-uterine opioid exposed infants and pre-school children experienced no significant impairment in neurobehavioral outcomes when compared to non-exposed peers, although in all domains there was a trend to poorer outcomes. The findings of this review are limited by the small number of studies analysed, the heterogenous populations and small numbers within the individual studies. Longitudinal studies are needed to determine if any neuropsychological impairments appear after the age of 5 years and to help investigate further the role of environmental risk factors on the effect of ‘core’ phenotypes

Beyond aridification: multiple explanations for the elevated diversification of cacti in the New World Succulent Biome

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/106989/1/nph12752.pd