The Economics of Land Use Change

The aim of this paper is to provide an overview for non-economists of how land has been treated in economic theory. Land is an aggregate of many different attributes, providing many important functions, which are not part of market transactions. An analysis of the economics of land use change has to include the unique character of land. This uniqueness arises from its distinct "physical, ecological, and institutional" properties. Land use decisions are influenced by three groups of factors. First, physical, biological, and technical factors include the quantity, nature, availability and characteristics of land resources, which set definite limits on what operators can do in using land resources. These physical properties refer to the "raw land." But what an owner of land really owns is not raw land but "real estate." The existence of parcels of land or real estate is a matter of human institutions. Real estate comes into existence and is maintained in its existence as a result of complicated networks of institutional facts, whereas raw land is not. Second, institutional factors provide the 'rules of the game' in a society, establishing the human devised constraints and unconscious habits that shape human interactions. Contributing to this institutional setting are cultural, economic, political, religious, social, and traditional factors. Third, economic factors, such as supply and demand, shape present land use. Economic analysis of land use change should not be solely occupied with price signals and shadow prices but has to include historical and institutional factors as well. Land is a much social product as it is a physical reality. Interdisciplinarity and plurality are therefore essential and irreducible requirements in land use research. In this spirit, it is hoped that this paper will promote exchange of ideas and concepts among disciplines

Outsourcing CO2 within China

Recent studies have shown that the high standard of living enjoyed by people in the richest countries often comes at the expense of CO2 emissions produced with technologies of low efficiency in less affluent, developing countries. Less apparent is that this relationship between developed and developing can exist within a single country’s borders, with rich regions consuming and exporting high-value goods and services that depend upon production of low-cost and emission-intensive goods and services from poorer regions in the same country. As the world’s largest emitter of CO2, China is a prominent and important example, struggling to balance rapid economic growth and environmental sustainability across provinces that are in very different stages of development. In this study, we track CO2 emissions embodied in products traded among Chinese provinces and internationally. We find that 57% of China’s emissions are related to goods that are consumed outside of the province where they are produced. For instance, up to 80% of the emissions related to goods consumed in the highly developed coastal provinces are imported from less developed provinces in central and western China where many low–value-added but high–carbon-intensive goods are produced. Without policy attention to this sort of interprovincial carbon leakage, the less developed provinces will struggle to meet their emissions intensity targets, whereas the more developed provinces might achieve their own targets by further outsourcing. Consumption-based accounting of emissions can thus inform effective and equitable climate policy within China

Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures

Uplands around the world are facing significant social, economic and environmental changes, and decision-makers need to better understand what the future may hold if they are to adapt and maintain upland goods and services. This paper draws together all major research comprising eight studies that have used scenarios to describe possible futures for UK uplands. The paper evaluates which scenarios are perceived by stakeholders to be most likely and desirable, and assesses the benefits and drawbacks of the scenario methods used in UK uplands to date. Stakeholders agreed that the most desirable and likely scenario would be a continuation of hill farming (albeit at reduced levels) based on cross-compliance with environmental measures. The least desirable scenario is a withdrawal of government financial support for hill farming. Although this was deemed by stakeholders to be the least likely scenario, the loss of government support warrants close attention due to its potential implications for the local economy. Stakeholders noted that the environmental implications of this scenario are much less clear-cut. As such, there is an urgent need to understand the full implications of this scenario, so that upland stakeholders can adequately prepare, and policy-makers can better evaluate the likely implications of different policy options. The paper concludes that in future, upland scenario research needs to: (1) better integrate in-depth and representative participation from stakeholders during both scenario development and evaluation; and (2) make more effective use of visualisation techniques and simulation models

The Water-Energy-Food Nexus in East Asia: A Tele-connected Value Chain Analysis Using Inter-Regional Input-Output Analysis

Population and economic growth pose unique challenges in securing sufficient water, energy, and food to meet demand at the sub-national (regional), national, and supra-national level. An increasing share of this demand is met through trade and imports. The unprecedented rapid growth, extent, and complexity of global value chains (GVCs) since the 1980s have reshaped global trade. The GVCs – and new economic patterns of regionalization – affect the demands on water, energy, and food within countries and across global supply chains. East Asia is of particular interest due to the region’s rapid economic growth, substantial population size, high interdependence of the region’s economies, and varying degree of resource availability. While greater interdependence across the region has increased the efficiency of production and trade, these activities require the input of water-energy-food and generate disturbances in the environment. The transnational inter-regional input-output approach is utilized in a tele-connected Water-Energy-Food Nexus (WEFN) analysis of the East Asia GVC to assess competing demands for these resources and environmental outcomes. This analysis demonstrates the hidden virtual flows of water, energy, and food embodied in intra-regional and transnational inter-regional trade. China’s current national export oriented economic growth strategy in East Asia is not sustainable from the WEFN perspective. In terms of water-energy-food, China is a net virtual exporter to Japan and South Korea. China’s prioritization of economic growth and trade in low value added and pollution intensive sectors consumes a great amount of water-energy-food within its territory to satisfy consumers’ demands in Japan and South Korea. Japan’s Kanto and Kinki regions and South Korea’s Sudokwon region were the major beneficiaries while China bore the environmental burden associated with the production of exports. For example, net virtual exports from China’s East region included over 1.2 billion m3 of scarce water and 61.3 million metric (CO2 equivalent) tons of greenhouse gases (i.e. CO2, NH4, and N2O) and 2 million metric tons of SOx emissions. Trade is an important mechanism for overcoming resource bottlenecks, but, taking into account environmental linkages, regional specialization is not necessarily mutually beneficial. This analysis demonstrates a mismatch between regional water-energy-food availability and final resource consumption and the lack of attention for environmental impacts in national economic growth strategies. Resource scarce countries like China must, therefore, incorporate trade-off decisions between pursuing national economic growth, incurring environmental degradation, and food security into strategic regional development policies

A cost–benefit analysis of the environmental taxation policy in China: A frontier analysis‐based environmentally extended input–output optimization method

China's high‐speed economic development and reliance on overconsumption of natural resources have led to serious environmental pollution. Environmental taxation is seen as an effective economic tool to help mitigate air pollution. In order to assess the effects of different scenarios of environmental taxation policies, we propose a frontier‐based environmentally extended input–output optimization model with explicit emission abatement sectors to reflect the inputs and benefits of abatement. Frontier analysis ensures policy scenarios are assessed under the same technical efficiency benchmark, while input–output analysis depicts the wide range of economic transactions among sectors of an economy. Four scenarios are considered in this study, which are increasing specific tax rates of SO2, NOx, and soot and dust separately and increasing all three tax rates simultaneously. Our estimation results show that: raising tax rates of SO2, NOx, and soot and dust simultaneously would have the highest emission reduction effects, with the SO2 tax rate making the greatest contribution to emission reduction. Raising the soot and dust tax rate is the most environmentally friendly strategy due to its highest abatement to welfare through avoided health costs. The combination of frontier analysis and input–output analysis provides policy makers a comprehensive and sectoral approach to assess costs and benefits of environmental taxation

Uncovering the Green, Blue, and Grey Water Footprint and Virtual Water of Biofuel Production in Brazil: A Nexus Perspective

Brazil plays a major role in the global biofuel economy as the world's second largest producer and consumer and the largest exporter of ethanol. Its demand is expected to significantly increase in coming years, largely driven by national and international carbon mitigation targets. However, biofuel crops require significant amounts of water and land resources that could otherwise be used for the production of food, urban water supply, or energy generation. Given Brazil's uneven spatial distribution of water resources among regions, a potential expansion of ethanol production will need to take into account regional or local water availability, as an increased water demand for irrigation would put further pressure on already water-scarce regions and compete with other users. By applying an environmentally extended multiregional input-output (MRIO) approach, we uncover the scarce water footprint and the interregional virtual water flows associated with sugarcane-derived biofuel production driven by domestic final consumption and international exports in 27 states in Brazil. Our results show that bio-ethanol is responsible for about one third of the total sugarcane water footprint besides sugar and other processed food production. We found that richer states such as São Paulo benefit by accruing a higher share of economic value added from exporting ethanol as part of global value chains while increasing water stress in poorer states through interregional trade. We also found that, in comparison with other crops, sugarcane has a comparative advantage when rainfed while showing a comparative disadvantage as an irrigated crop; a tradeoff to be considered when planning irrigation infrastructure and bioethanol production expansion. © 2017 by the authors

Impacts of COVID-19 and fiscal stimuli on global emissions and the Paris Agreement

The global economy is facing a serious recession due to COVID-19, with implications for CO2 emissions. Here, using a global adaptive multiregional input–output model and scenarios of lockdown and fiscal counter measures, we show that global emissions from economic sectors will decrease by 3.9 to 5.6% in 5 years (2020 to 2024) compared with a no-pandemic baseline scenario (business as usual for economic growth and carbon intensity decline). Global economic interdependency via supply chains means that blocking one country’s economic activities causes the emissions of other countries to decrease even without lockdown policies. Supply-chain effects contributed 90.1% of emissions decline from power production in 2020 but only 13.6% of transport sector reductions. Simulations of follow-up fiscal stimuli in 41 major countries increase global 5-yr emissions by −6.6 to 23.2 Gt (−4.7 to 16.4%), depending on the strength and structure of incentives. Therefore, smart policy is needed to turn pandemic-related emission declines into firm climate action

The role of connexin 37 gene polymorphism (1019C > T; Pro319Ser) in cardiovascular disease

In spite of the strong prognostic value of all traditional cardiovascularrisk factors, still striking differences exist in the prevalence of clinical events between patients at apparently similar risk. One of the main reasons is different genetic background. One of recently discussed candidate genes for cardiovascular disease is the gene for the protein Connexin 37 (Cx37). This protein is a part of gap junctions responsible for communications between cells including cells in the vessel wall. Studies focused on the association between Cx37 gene polymorphism (1019C > T; Pro319Ser) and cardiovascular disease demonstrate inconsistent results. Our findings in 1.316 men and women indicated that the Cx37 gene polymorphism (genotype CC) is significantly associated with acute coronary syndrome in non-smoking women. In addition, in urban and rural women from general population (n = 1.056) with impaired fasting glycaemia the same genotype is associated with increased intima media thickness of carotid arteries measured by ultrasound. Finally, in 289 women with diabetestype 1 or 2, and in 208 women from general population with central obesity, the CC genotype was associated with lower ankle brachial blood pressure index. These data indicate that Cx37 gene polymorphism could have gender- and smoking-dependent effects on acute coronary events and glucose dependent effect on atherosclerosis in women. Keywords: connexin 37 gene polymorphism, atherosclerosis, acute coronary syndromes, women smoking, glycaemia.Незважаючи на однозначність прогностичного значення усіх традиційних факторів ризику серцево-судинних захворювань, існують значні розбіжності у їхніх клінічних проявах у різних пацієнтів. Однією з основних причин цього є неоднаковий генетичний фон. З-поміж недавно обговорюваних генів-кандидатів, які впливають на серцево-судинні захворювання, обрано ген білка конексину 37 (Cx37). Цей білок відповідає за міжклітинні взаємодії, включаючи клітини стінок кровоносних судин. Дослідження, зосереджені на пошуку зв’язку між поліморфізмом гена конексину 37 (1019C > T; Pro319Ser) та серце - во-судинними захворюваннями, показують суперечливі результати. Наші дослідження 1316 чоловіків і жінок демонструють, що поліморфізм гена Сх37 (генотип СС) значною мірою пов’язаний з гострим коронарним синдромом у жінок, які не курять. Окрім того, у міських і сільських жінок із загальної популяції (n = 1056) з порушеною глікемією цей же генотип пов’язаний із збільшенням товщини інтими сонних артерій, виміряної ультразвуком. У 289 жінок з діабетом 1-го або 2-го типу і у 208 жінок із загальної популяції з ожирінням генотип СС виявився зв’язаним з нижчим щиколотко-плечовим індексом тиску крові. Такі дані показують, що стать і куріння діють на гострі коронарні прояви, обумовлені поліморфізмом гена Cx37, для жінок виявлено також глюкозозалежний вплив на атеросклероз. Ключові слова: поліморфізм гена конексину 37, атеросклероз, гострий коронарний синдром, куріння жінок, глікемія.Несмотря на однозначность прогностического значения всех традиционных факторов риска сердечно-сосудистых заболеваний, по-прежнему существуют значительные отличия в их клинических проявлениях у разных пациентов. Одной из основных причин этого является неодинаковый генетический фон. Среди недавно обсуждаемых генов-кандидатов, влияющих на сердечно-сосудистые заболевания, выбран ген белка коннексина 37 (Cx37). Этот белок ответствен за межклеточные взаимодействия, включая клетки стенок кровеносных сосудов. Исследования, сосредоточенные на поисках связи между Cx37 полиморфизмом гена (1019C > T; Pro319Ser) и сердечно-сосудистыми заболеваниями, показывают противоречивые результаты. Наши исследования 1316 мужчин и женщин демонстрируют, что полиморфизм гена Cx37 (генотип СС) в значительной степени связан с острым коронарным синдромом у некурящих женщин. Кроме того, у городских и сельских женщин из общей популяции (n = 1056) с нарушенной гликемией тот же генотип связан с увеличением толщины интимы сонных артерий, измеренной ультразвуком. У 289 женщин с диабетом 1-го или 2-го типа и у 208 женщин из общей популяции с ожирением генотип СС оказался связанным с более низким лодыжечно-плечевым индексом давления крови. Эти данные показывают, что пол и курение действуют на острые коронарные проявления, обусловленные полиморфизмом гена Cx37, для женщин выявлен также глюкозозависимое влияние на атеросклероз. Ключевые слова: полиморфизма гена коннексина 37, атеросклероз, острый коронарный синдром, курение женщин, гликемия