The good, the bad and the ugly on COVID-19 tourism recovery

© 2020 Elsevier Ltd This paper is to produce different scenarios in forecasts for international tourism demand, in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. By implementing two distinct methodologies (the Long Short Term Memory neural network and the Generalized Additive Model), based on recent crises, we are able to calculate the expected drop in the international tourist arrivals for the next 12 months. We use a rolling-window testing strategy to calculate accuracy metrics and show that even though all models have comparable accuracy, the forecasts produced vary significantly according to the training data set, a finding that should be alarming to researchers. Our results indicate that the drop in tourist arrivals can range between 30.8% and 76.3% and will persist at least until June 2021

Exploring the value co-destruction model for on-line deviant behaviors of hotel customers

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd This study aims to build a value co-destruction model by exploring the online deviant behavior of hotel customers. Desire for revenge and desire for recovery are considered mediators. Hotel guests in notable Taiwan locations were surveyed via the Internet (no. = 601 valid responses). This study finds that negative emotion indirectly impacts negative electronic word of mouth (eWOM) with desire for revenge as a mediator. Furthermore, desire for recovery has the potential to mitigate the impact of negative emotion on negative eWOM. However, the desire for recovery is less intense than the desire for revenge. Based on these findings, this study concludes that emotion, by itself, does not result in action. Respondents only commit negative eWOM because they want to hurt the firm that wronged them. Respondents are also willing to entertain the idea of service recovery. However, desire for revenge is a stronger mediating factor

Extending prospect theory cross-culturally by examining switching behavior in consumer and business-to-business contexts

Prospect theory states that an individual in a loss situation is more likely to make a risky financial decision than when they are in a gain frame. Some researchers observe that Asians tend to have a more positive attitude toward risk in financial decisions than Westerners. The first of two studies tests these two phenomena. The study finds Singaporeans and Chinese to be less risk averse than Dutch and New Zealand people over both a gain and a loss frame when making a personal financial decision. A second study extends this finding to individuals in a business relationship switching suppliers, and finds that when switching is framed as a risky decision the same pattern of behavior occurs. New Zealand and American consumers are more risk averse than those from Japan and Singapore, who are more likely to change suppliers under both a gain and a loss frame.Prospect theory Risky decisions Switching costs Cross-cultural

Perspectives on tourism management as covered by Woodside and Martin

Tourism Management is a research journal and the short title of a book. This article examines the book as a resource for tourism students, tourism researchers and those who use tourism research in decision making. Part I of the book provides a framework for organizing 26 chapters into Parts II to VI. The chapters are research papers, some with exercises that help researchers and users of research understand good decision support by research. Analysis supports the book's value for target markets, particularly in providing good ideas and reference material about using research for decision making. However, Parts II-VI do not have introductions or conclusions. Analysis, drawing on extensive experience of the authors of this article, identifies the usefulness of a revised edition having information in each part about how the chapters fit into the book's framework and their practical significance. Discussion includes having expanded exercises for most chapters. Though suggesting changes to make a new edition better, the study here strongly endorses Tourism Management, the book, for teaching applications and as a resource for researchers and users of research.Tourism Management Sensemaking Planning Implementing Evaluating