Participatory Visioning and Future Planning. Backcasting with Myanmar Farmers for a more Sustainable Future. Methodological Report

This report describes the methodology of participatory visioning and future planning, including a technique called backcasting. Based on literature and experience, we developed and applied this methodology to support smallholder farmers in southern Myanmar. In a highly participatory bottom-up approach, we co-created and documented the vision of these farmers – in direct collaboration with them – including their desirable futures, and we jointly explored possible pathways and action plans to reach these futures. We also co-implemented needs-based actions including concrete trainings, study trips, and a community-led micro-loan system to strengthen their agriculture – their main source of livelihood. Unfortunately, beginning in 2020, Myanmar experienced two overlapping waves of crisis: the health crisis as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic; and the political crisis following the coup d’etat in 2021. The final two years of the project were implemented under these extremely challenging conditions. We frequently had to adapt our operationalization to the very dynamic, changing circum-stances. Fortunately, our methodology allowed for this kind of adaptive management. Despite the challenging circumstances, the farmers were positive in their assessment of the project outcomes. This suggests that the methodology of participatory visioning and future planning can be effective even under difficult circumstances. We conclude the report by presenting lessons learnt and recommendations. Firstly, we reflect on how useful this methodology was and how it can be applied in similar or different projects (research, development, etc.). Secondly, we share our practical insights and recommendations regarding the application of the methodology in the given or similar contexts. Finally, we provide practical recommendations for project planning for those who want to include participatory visioning and future planning in their projects

Regional scale mapping of ecosystem services supply, demand, flow and mismatches in Southern Myanmar

Mapping ecosystem service (ES) supply, demand, and flow – and identifying supply/demand mismatches – has become a focus of ES research and has benefitted from recent advances in modelling techniques and their combination with Geographic Information Systems. But few studies have been done in data-scarce tropical forest frontiers and these were limited in terms of area, land uses, and number and types of ES. Aiming to evolve contemporary approaches, we used Bayesian networks to model and map nine ES across Myanmar’s Tanintharyi Region for local stakeholders. Results show that while there is a high supply of multiple ES at regional level, demand for ES in urban and rapidly developing agricultural areas is not fully covered. Further, we identified a clear connection between land tenure and ES outcomes for rural communities. Agricultural concessions and protected areas with restricted access for the local population were related to lower ES flows and more supply/demand mismatches than community forests or untenured land. For future research on local ES outcomes in tropical forest frontiers, we recommend combined mismatch and flow analyses under consideration of tenurial rights