The Profitability of Currency Speculation

This paper presents the results of a post-sample simulation of a speculative strategy using a portfolio of foreign currency forward contracts.The main new features of the speculative strategy are (a)the use of Kalman filters to update the forecasting equation, (b) the allowance for transactions,costs and margin requirements and (c) the endogenous determination of the leveraging of the portfolio. While the forecasting model tended to overestimate profit and underestimate risk, the strategy was still profitable over a three year period and it was possible to reject the hypothesis that the sum of profits was zero. Furthermore, the currency portfolio was found to have an extremely low market risk. Combinations of the speculative currency portfolio with traditional portfolios of U.S. equities resulted in considerable improvements in risk-adjusted returns on capital.

Herzberg Circuit and Berry's Phase in Chirality-based Coded Qubit in a Triangular Triple Quantum Dot

We present a theoretical proposal for the Herzberg circuit and controlled accumulation of Berry's phase in a chirality-based coded qubit in a triangular triple quantum dot molecule with one electron spin each. The qubit is encoded in the two degenerate states of a three spin complex with total spin $S=1/2$. Using a Hubbard and Heisenberg model the Herzberg circuit encircling the degeneracy point is realized by adiabatically tuning the successive on-site energies of quantum dots and tunnel couplings across a pair of neighbouring dots. It is explicitly shown that encircling the degeneracy point leads to the accumulation of the geometrical Berrys phase. We show that only triangular but not linear quantum dot molecule allows for the generation of Berry's phase and we discuss a protocol to detect this geometrical phase

State-space based mass event-history model I: many decision-making agents with one target

A dynamic decision-making system that includes a mass of indistinguishable agents could manifest impressive heterogeneity. This kind of nonhomogeneity is postulated to result from macroscopic behavioral tactics employed by almost all involved agents. A State-Space Based (SSB) mass event-history model is developed here to explore the potential existence of such macroscopic behaviors. By imposing an unobserved internal state-space variable into the system, each individual's event-history is made into a composition of a common state duration and an individual specific time to action. With the common state modeling of the macroscopic behavior, parametric statistical inferences are derived under the current-status data structure and conditional independence assumptions. Identifiability and computation related problems are also addressed. From the dynamic perspectives of system-wise heterogeneity, this SSB mass event-history model is shown to be very distinct from a random effect model via the Principle Component Analysis (PCA) in a numerical experiment. Real data showing the mass invasion by two species of parasitic nematode into two species of host larvae are also analyzed. The analysis results not only are found coherent in the context of the biology of the nematode as a parasite, but also include new quantitative interpretations.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS189 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Integrated Light 2MASS IR Photometry of Galactic Globular Clusters

We have mosaiced 2MASS images to derive surface brightness profiles in JHK for 104 Galactic globular clusters. We fit these with King profiles, and show that the core radii are identical to within the errors for each of these IR colors, and are identical to the core radii at V in essentially all cases. We derive integrated light colors V-J, V-H, V-K_s, J-H and J-K_s for these globular clusters. Each color shows a reasonably tight relation between the dereddened colors and metallicity. Fits to these are given for each color. The IR--IR colors have very small errors due largely to the all-sky photometric calibration of the 2MASS survey, while the V-IR colors have substantially larger uncertainties. We find fairly good agreement with measurements of integrated light colors for a smaller sample of Galactic globular clusters by Aaronson, Malkan & Kleinmann from 1977. Our results provide a calibration for the integrated light of distant single burst old stellar populations from very low to Solar metallicities. A comparison of our dereddened measured colors with predictions from several models of the integrated light of single burst old populations shows good agreement in the low metallicity domain for V-K_s colors, but an offset at a fixed [Fe/H] of ~0.1 mag in J-K_s, which we ascribe to photometric system transformation issues. Some of the models fail to reproduce the behavior of the integrated light colors of the Galactic globular clusters near Solar metallicity.Comment: Accepted for publication in the A

AXAF FITS standard for ray trace interchange

A standard data format for the archival and transport of x-ray events generated by ray trace models is described. Upon review and acceptance by the Advanced X-ray Astrophysics Facility (AXAF) Software Systems Working Group (SSWG), this standard shall become the official AXAF data format for ray trace events. The Flexible Image Transport System (FITS) is well suited for the purposes of the standard and was selected to be the basis of the standard. FITS is both flexible and efficient and is also widely used within the astronomical community for storage and transfer of data. In addition, software to read and write FITS format files are widely available. In selecting quantities to be included within the ray trace standard, the AXAF Mission Support team, Science Instruments team, and the other contractor teams were surveyed. From the results of this survey, the following requirements were established: (1) for the scientific needs, each photon should have associated with it: position, direction, energy, and statistical weight; the standard must also accommodate path length (relative phase), and polarization. (2) a unique photon identifier is necessary for bookkeeping purposes; (3) a log of individuals, organizations, and software packages that have modified the data must be maintained in order to create an audit trail; (4) a mechanism for extensions to the basic kernel should be provided; and (5) the ray trace standard should integrate with future AXAF data product standards

Investigating successful implementation of technologies in Developing nations

Thesis (S.B.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2005.Includes bibliographical references.A study was performed to determine possible factors that contribute to successful implementation of new technologies in developing nations. Engineers and other inventors have devoted great effort to Appropriate Technology design over the last two decades, but few comprehensive case studies currently exist examining factors that lead to technology success. Existing studies of appropriate technology were summarized and a quantitative model was created to tabulate the data. Factors of local maintenance, local production, and local need of a technology were found to be the most important to sustainable technology implementation. The model was then tested with a current Appropriate Technology project to examine the relevance of its results. Overall, the model proved applicable, though furthers studies are suggested to refine the model.by Edward F. Hsieh.S.B

Study of HST counterparts to Chandra X-ray sources in the Globular Cluster M71

We report on archival Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations of the globular cluster M71 (NGC 6838). These observations, covering the core of the globular cluster, were performed by the Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) and the Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2). Inside the half-mass radius (r_h = 1.65') of M71, we find 33 candidate optical counterparts to 25 out of 29 Chandra X-ray sources while outside the half-mass radius, 6 possible optical counterparts to 4 X-ray sources are found. Based on the X-ray and optical properties of the identifications, we find 1 certain and 7 candidate cataclysmic variables (CVs). We also classify 2 and 12 X-ray sources as certain and potential chromospherically active binaries (ABs), respectively. The only star in the error circle of the known millisecond pulsar (MSP) is inconsistent with being the optical counterpart. The number of X-ray faint sources with L_x>4x10^{30} ergs/s (0.5-6.0 keV) found in M71 is higher than extrapolations from other clusters on the basis of either collision frequency or mass. Since the core density of M71 is relatively low, we suggest that those CVs and ABs are primordial in origin.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Fermi surface topology and low-lying quasiparticle structure of magnetically ordered Fe1+xTe

We report the first photoemission study of Fe1+xTe - the host compound of the newly discovered iron-chalcogenide superconductors. Our results reveal a pair of nearly electron- hole compensated Fermi pockets, strong Fermi velocity renormalization and an absence of a spin-density-wave gap. A shadow hole pocket is observed at the "X"-point of the Brillouin zone which is consistent with a long-range ordered magneto-structural groundstate. No signature of Fermi surface nesting instability associated with Q= pi(1/2, 1/2) is observed. Our results collectively reveal that the Fe1+xTe series is dramatically different from the undoped phases of the high Tc pnictides and likely harbor unusual mechanism for superconductivity and quantum magnetic order.Comment: 5 pages, 4 Figures; Submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. (2009