Quality at the centre of universal health coverage

The last decade of the MDG era witnessed substantial focus on reaching the bottom economic quintiles in low and middle income countries. However, the inordinate focus on reducing financial risk burden and increasing coverage without sufficient focus on expanding quality of services may account for slow progress of the MDGs in many countries. Human Resources for Health underlie quality and service delivery improvements, yet remains under-addressed in many national strategies to achieve Universal Health Coverage. Without adequate investments in improving and expanding health professional education, making and sustaining gains will be unlikely. The transition from the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), with exciting new financing initiatives such as the Global Financing Facility brings the potential to enact substantial gains in the quality of services delivered and upgrading human health resources. This focus should ensure effective methodologies to improve health worker competencies and change practice are employed and ineffective and harmful ones eliminated (including undue influence of commercial interests)

Underuse of modern methods of contraception: underlying causes and consequent undesired pregnancies in 35 low- and middle-income countries

Study question: What is the contribution of the underuse of modern methods (MM) of contraception to the annual undesired pregnancies in 35 low- and middle-income countries? Summary answer: Fifteen million out of 16.7 million undesired pregnancies occurring annually in 35 countries could have been prevented with the optimal use of MM of contraception. What is known already: Every year, 87 million women worldwide become pregnant unintentionally because of the underuse of MM of contraception. Study design, size, duration: Demographic and health surveys (DHS) of 35 countries, conducted between 2005 and 2012, were analysed. Participants/materials, setting, methods: Contraceptive use of 12 874 unintentionally pregnant women was compared with 111 301 sexually active women who were neither pregnant nor desiring pregnancy. Main results and the role of chance: An average of 96% of 15- to 49-year-old eligible women took part in the survey. When adjusted for covariates and compared with the use of MM of contraception, the use of traditional methods was associated with a 2.7 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3-3.4] times increase in odds of an undesired pregnancy, while non-use of any method was associated with a 14.3 (95% CI, 12.3-16.7) times increase. This corresponded to an estimated 16.7 million undesired pregnancies occurring annually in the 35 countries, of which 15.0 million could have been prevented with the optimal use of MM of contraception (13.5 million women did not use MM whilst 1.5 million women utilized MM incorrectly). Women with the lowest educational attainment and wealth quintile were 8.6 (95% CI: 8.2-9.1) and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.4-2.9) times less likely to use contraceptives compared with those with the highest level of each, respectively. Of the 14 893 women who neither desired pregnancy nor used contraception, 5559 (37.3%) cited fear of side effects and health concerns as the reason for non-use, 3331 (22.4%) cited they or their partner\u27s opposition to contraception or religious prohibition and 2620 (17.6%) underestimated the risk of pregnancy. Limitations, reasons for caution: Despite the fact that DHS are considered high-quality studies, we should not underestimate the role played by recall bias for past pregnancies. Few women report a current pregnancy in the first trimester and undesired pregnancies at that time are probably prone to under-reporting. Some terminated pregnancies may not be included in the current pregnancy group. Furthermore, covariates measured at the time of the survey may not have reflected the same covariates at the time the currently pregnant women became pregnant. Wider implications of the findings: Underuse of MM of contraception burdens especially the poor and the less educated. National strategies should address unfounded health concerns, fear of side effects, opposition and underestimated risk of pregnancy, which are major contributors to undesired pregnancies. Funding/conflicts of interest: No external funding was utilized for this report. There are no conflicts of interest to declare

Effect of Puerperal Infections on Early Neonatal Mortality: A Secondary Analysis of Six Demographic and Health Surveys

Background: Around 1.5 million annual neonatal deaths occur in the first week of life, and infections represent one of the major causes in developing countries. Neonatal sepsis is often strictly connected to infection of the maternal genital tract during labour. Methods: The association between signs suggestive of puerperal infection and early neonatal mortality (life) was performed using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data of six countries, conducted between 2010 and 2013. The population attributable fraction (PAF) was generated using the estimates on early neonatal mortality of a 1990-2013 systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. Results: Signs of puerperal infection ranged from 0.7% in the Philippines to 16.4% in Honduras. Infection was associated with a 2.1 adjusted Risk Ratio (95% CI: 1.4-3.2) of early neonatal mortality. Around five percent of all deaths in the first week of life were attributable to signs suggestive of puerperal infections and varied from 13.9% (95% CI: 1.0-26.6) in Honduras to 3.6% (95% CI: 1.0-8.5) in Indonesia. Conclusions: Targeted interventions should be addressed to contain the burden of puerperal infections on early neonatal mortality. Consideration of the PAF will help in the discussion of the benefits of antenatal and perinatal measures

Myelin Oligodendrocyte Glycoprotein–specific T Cell Receptor Transgenic Mice Develop Spontaneous Autoimmune Optic Neuritis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is considered to be an autoimmune disease of the central nervous system (CNS) that in many patients first presents clinically as optic neuritis. The relationship of optic neuritis to MS is not well understood. We have generated novel T cell receptor (TCR) transgenic mice specific for myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG). MOG-specific transgenic T cells are not deleted nor tolerized and are functionally competent. A large proportion (>30%) of MOG-specific TCR transgenic mice spontaneously develop isolated optic neuritis without any clinical nor histological evidence of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE). Optic neuritis without EAE could also be induced in these mice by sensitization with suboptimal doses of MOG. The predilection of these mice to develop optic neuritis is associated with higher expression of MOG in the optic nerve than in the spinal cord. These results demonstrate that clinical manifestations of CNS autoimmune disease will vary depending on the identity of the target autoantigen and that MOG-specific T cell responses are involved in the genesis of isolated optic neuritis

Basic newborn care and neonatal resuscitation: a multi-country analysis of health system bottlenecks and potential solutions.

BACKGROUND: An estimated two-thirds of the world's 2.7 million newborn deaths could be prevented with quality care at birth and during the postnatal period. Basic Newborn Care (BNC) is part of the solution and includes hygienic birth and newborn care practices including cord care, thermal care, and early and exclusive breastfeeding. Timely provision of resuscitation if needed is also critical to newborn survival. This paper describes health system barriers to BNC and neonatal resuscitation and proposes solutions to scale up evidence-based strategies. METHODS: The maternal and newborn bottleneck analysis tool was applied by 12 countries in Africa and Asia as part of the Every Newborn Action Plan process. Country workshops engaged technical experts to complete the survey tool, which is designed to synthesise and grade health system "bottlenecks" that hinder the scale up of maternal-newborn intervention packages. We used quantitative and qualitative methods to analyse the bottleneck data, combined with literature review, to present priority bottlenecks and actions relevant to different health system building blocks for BNC and neonatal resuscitation. RESULTS: Eleven of the 12 countries provided grading data. Overall, bottlenecks were graded more severely for resuscitation. The most severely graded bottlenecks for BNC were health workforce (8 of 11 countries), health financing (9 out of 11) and service delivery (7 out of 9); and for neonatal resuscitation, workforce (9 out of 10), essential commodities (9 out of 10) and service delivery (8 out of 10). Country teams from Africa graded bottlenecks overall more severely. Improving workforce performance, availability of essential commodities, and well-integrated health service delivery were the key solutions proposed. CONCLUSIONS: BNC was perceived to have the least health system challenges among the seven maternal and newborn intervention packages assessed. Although neonatal resuscitation bottlenecks were graded more severe than for BNC, similarities particularly in the workforce and service delivery building blocks highlight the inextricable link between the two interventions and the need to equip birth attendants with requisite skills and commodities to assess and care for every newborn. Solutions highlighted by country teams include ensuring more investment to improve workforce performance and distribution, especially numbers of skilled birth attendants, incentives for placement in challenging settings, and skills-based training particularly for neonatal resuscitation

Consumer Stockpiling and Sales Promotions

In retailing markets of storable goods, consumer behavior is typically characterized by stockpiling. While existing research has developed rich models for such strategic consumer behavior, little is known about how sellers should ideally respond to it. In this paper, we provide insights into how frequency and depth of promotions affect consumer purchases and seller revenues in the long run. We show an application to the U.S. market for laundry detergent. We use estimates from a structural dynamic demand model to simulate different pricing policies and find that in the detergent market, an increase in promotion depth is more effective than a change in promotion length. Our results suggest that this finding can be translated to markets with a large heterogeneity in storage costs and steady consumption rates

Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) and Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) Conceptual Design Report Volume 2: The Physics Program for DUNE at LBNF

The Physics Program for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) at the Fermilab Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) is described

Linkage study of fibrinogen levels: the Strong Heart Family Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The pathogenesis of atherosclerosis involves both hemostatic and inflammatory mechanisms. Fibrinogen is associated with both risk of thrombosis and inflammation. A recent meta-analysis showed that risk of coronary heart disease may increase 1.8 fold for 1 g/L of increased fibrinogen, independent of traditional risk factors. It is known that fibrinogen levels may be influenced by demographic, environmental and genetic factors. Epidemiologic and candidate gene studies are available; but few genome-wide linkage studies have been conducted, particularly in minority populations. The Strong Heart Study has demonstrated an increased incidence of cardiovascular disease in the American Indian population, and therefore represents an important source for genetic-epidemiological investigations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Strong Heart Family Study enrolled over 3,600 American Indian participants in large, multi-generational families, ascertained from an ongoing population-based study in the same communities. Fibrinogen was determined using standard technique in a central laboratory and extensive additional phenotypic measures were obtained. Participants were genotyped for 382 short tandem repeat markers distributed throughout the genome; and results were analyzed using a variance decomposition method, as implemented in the SOLAR 2.0 program.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Data from 3535 participants were included and after step-wise, linear regression analysis, two models were selected for investigation. Basic demographic adjustments constituted model 1, while model 2 considered waist circumference, diabetes mellitus and postmenopausal status as additional covariates. Five LOD scores between 1.82 and 3.02 were identified, with the maximally adjusted model showing the highest score on chromosome 7 at 28 cM. Genes for two key components of the inflammatory response, i.e. interleukin-6 and "signal transducer and activator of transcription 3" (<it>STAT3</it>), were identified within 2 and 8 Mb of this 1 LOD drop interval respectively. A LOD score of 1.82 on chromosome 17 between 68 and 93 cM is supported by reports from two other populations with LOD scores of 1.4 and 1.95.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In a minority population with a high prevalence of cardiovascular disease, strong evidence for a novel genetic determinant of fibrinogen levels is found on chromosome 7 at 28 cM. Four other loci, some of which have been suggested by previous studies, were also identified.</p

Integrating maternal, newborn, child health and non-communicable disease care in the sustainable development goal era

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and maternal newborn and child health (MNCH) are two deeply intertwined health areas that have been artificially separated by global health policies, resource allocations and programming. Optimal MNCH care can provide a unique opportunity to screen for, prevent and manage early signs of NCDs developing in both the woman and the neonate. This paper considers how NCDs, NCD modifiable risk factors, and NCD metabolic risk factors impact MNCH. We argue that integrated management is essential, but this faces challenges that manifest across all levels of domestic health systems. Progress toward Sustainable Development targets requires joined-up action

Low exposure long-baseline neutrino oscillation sensitivity of the DUNE experiment

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) will produce world-leading neutrino oscillation measurements over the lifetime of the experiment. In this work, we explore DUNE's sensitivity to observe charge-parity violation (CPV) in the neutrino sector, and to resolve the mass ordering, for exposures of up to 100 kiloton-megawatt-years (kt-MW-yr). The analysis includes detailed uncertainties on the flux prediction, the neutrino interaction model, and detector effects. We demonstrate that DUNE will be able to unambiguously resolve the neutrino mass ordering at a 3$\sigma$ (5$\sigma$) level, with a 66 (100) kt-MW-yr far detector exposure, and has the ability to make strong statements at significantly shorter exposures depending on the true value of other oscillation parameters. We also show that DUNE has the potential to make a robust measurement of CPV at a 3$\sigma$ level with a 100 kt-MW-yr exposure for the maximally CP-violating values \delta_{\rm CP}} = \pm\pi/2. Additionally, the dependence of DUNE's sensitivity on the exposure taken in neutrino-enhanced and antineutrino-enhanced running is discussed. An equal fraction of exposure taken in each beam mode is found to be close to optimal when considered over the entire space of interest