Evaluating Investments in Technology: Five Approaches

Prepared for the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943.Naval Postgraduate SchoolApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Portfolio Optimization of Flexible Ship Options

This proposed research has the explicit goal of proposing a reusable, extensible, adaptable, and comprehensive advanced analytical modeling process to help the U.S. Navy in quantifying, modeling, valuing, and optimizing a set of ship design options to create a business case for making strategic decisions under uncertainty. Specifically, we look at a portfolio of options onboard multiple ships across different classes, both at the Program Executive Office Ships (PEO-SHIPS) and extensible to the Navy Fleet. This portfolio of options approach will provide tools to allow decision-makers to decide on the optimal flexible options to implement and allocate in different types of ships subject to budget constraints across multiple types of ships. The office of Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) is also interested in applying portfolio optimization to choose among various programs across the various departments and divisions in the Navy, and applications within the CNO community will be addressed further in a follow-on research article.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra

Potential Cost Savings for Use of 3D Printing Combined With 3D Imaging and CPLM for Fleet Maintenance and Revitalization

Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra

Collaborative IT tools leveraging competence: antecedents and consequences

The following article is taken as an excerpt from the proceedings of the annual Acquisition Research Program. This annual event showcases the research projects funded through the Acquisition Research Program at the Graduate School of Business and Public Policy at the Naval Postgraduate School. Featuring keynote speakers, plenary panels, multiple panel sessions, a student research poster show and social events, the Annual Acquisition Research Symposium offers a candid environment where high-ranking Department of Defense (DoD) officials, industry officials, accomplished faculty and military students are encouraged to collaborate on finding applicable solutions to the challenges facing acquisition policies and processes within the DoD today. By jointly and publicly questioning the norms of industry and academia, the resulting research benefits from myriad perspectives and collaborations which can identify better solutions and practices in acquisition, contract, financial, logistics and program management. For further information regarding the Acquisition Research Program, electronic copies of additional research, or to learn more about becoming a sponsor, please visit our program website at: www.acquisitionresearch.org. For further information on or to register for the next Acquisition Research Symposium during the third week of May, please visit our conference website at: www.researchsymposium.org.;A fundamental problem for IS academics and managers is how collaborative IT tools can be properly used to create business value. To shed light on this problem, this paper introduces the notion of Collaborative IT Tools Leveraging Competence as the ability of groups to effectively leverage the IT functionalities of collaborative IT tools to facilitate their group activities. Collaborative IT Tools Leveraging Competence is conceptualized as a formative second-order construct formed by the group's effective use of the following six key IT functionalities: workspace sharing, conferencing, file sharing, scheduling, chat, and email. Collaborative IT Tools Leveraging Competence is hypothesized to facilitate group performance (process efficiency, project effectiveness, and situational awareness), particularly in intense work environments. To enhance a group's ability to effectively leverage collaborative IT tools, the study proposes a set of enabling factors: customization of the collaborative IT tools, the group's habit in using collaborative IT tools, the group's perceived usefulness and ease of use of collaborative IT tools, the group member's mutual trust, and the degree of environmental intensity. Data from 365 group managers support the proposed structural model with the antecedents and consequences of Collaborative IT Tools Leveraging Competence at different levels of environmental intensity. The paper discusses the study's contributions of better understanding the nature, antecedents, and consequences of Collaborative IT Tools Leveraging Competence. Implications for evaluating and enhancing the role of collaborative IT tools are discussed.Third Annual Acquisition Research SymposiumApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

When the Rivers Run Dry: Adapting Prior Appropriation Systems to Protect Marginalized Communities in Times of Drought

30 pagesWater is undoubtedly one of our most precious resources, and the western United States is expected to face increasing scarcity as the climate continues to change and more people flock to arid cities like Los Angeles and Phoenix. Most surface waters of the western United States are fully appropriated, and climate change is further stressing those systems as water scarcity and drought occur more frequently. Low-income communities will suffer more than wealthier counterparts in times of scarcity under the current prior appropriation systems used by states in the West. Western states must be proactive in implementing safeguards to protect citizens when faced with water emergencies, as it is inevitable that drought and water scarcity will continue to be a threat to the stability of these communities in the coming decades

Business Case Valuation of Strategic Flexibility in Shipbuilding: Justifying and Assessing the Value of Flexible Ships Design Features in New Navy Ship Concepts

To successfully implement the Surface Navyﾒs Flexible Ships concept, PEO-SHIPS requires a new methodology that assesses the total future value of various combinations of Flexible Ships design features and how they will enable affordable warfighting relevance over the shipﾒs full-service life. Examples of Flexible Ships design features include decoupling payloads from platforms, standardizing platform-to-payload interfaces, implementing allowance for rapid reconfiguration of onboard electronics and weapons systems, preplanning access routes for mission bays and mission decks, and allowing for sufficient growth margins for various distributed systems. This research analyzes the application of strategic Real Options Valuation methodology within the Integrated Risk Management process to assess the total future value of Flexible Ships design features and for use in the Future Surface Combatant Analysis of Alternatives. The current research has the explicit goal of proposing a reusable, extensible, adaptable, and comprehensive advanced analytical modeling process to help the U.S. Navy in quantifying, modeling, valuing, and optimizing a set of ship design options to create and value a business case for making strategic decisions under uncertainty.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra

FLEXIBLE SHIP OPTIONS Business Case Valuation of Strategic Flexibility in Ship Building

Introduction *Research Goal: Assess total future value of Flexible Ships design features to enable affordable warfighting relevance over a ship's full service life. *Affordable Warfighting = Higher Cost now but Greater ROI over the entire service life and lifecycle of the ship. *IRM methodology will be used. *Methodology provides a reusable, extensible, adaptable, and comprehensive advanced analytical modeling process. *Will help the U.S. Navy in quantifying, modeling, valuing, and optimizing a set of ship design options. *Results used to develop a robust business case for making strategic design decisions under uncertainty.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra

PEO-IWS ACB Insertion Portfolio Optimization

Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)Program Executive Office''Integrated Warfare Systems (PEO-IWS) engaged a team from the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) to conduct a pilot study to apply the Knowledge Valued Added + Real Options + Integrated Risk Management + Portfolio Optimization (KVA + RO + IRM + PO) method to estimate the value stream created by the capabilities to be inserted within the Aegis Weapons System (AWS) through the Advanced Capability Build (ACB) process''as described in the PEO-IWS Surface Combat System Acquisition Management Plan (AMP)''given budget constraints and ship industrial availability schedules. The goal was to determine what order of capability insertion provided the best returns within an optimized portfolio, treating each capability as a real option. The KVA + RO + IRM + PO approach was used to estimate the warfighter value delivered by each capability within the context of a portfolio-optimization, integrated risk-management model. The results provide a set of options based on selected constraints for insertion of the capabilities over the period of interest (Fiscal Years 2014''2025) based on an optimized portfolio model. For detailed information on the KVA + RO +IRM + PO approach, see the technical appendix to this report.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Historical Analysis of Costs, Risks, and Uncertainties: Moving From a Proprietary to an Open Architected Systems, Open Business Acquisitions Management Approach

Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra

Integrating System Dynamics Modeling and Knowledge Value Added for Improved Analysis of Alternatives: A Proof of Concept Study

Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)Effective and efficient DoD acquisition programs require the analysis of a wide range of materiel alternatives. Alternative diversity, difficulties in selecting metrics and measuring performance, and other factors make the Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) difficult. The benefits of alternatives should be included in AoA, but cost estimates predominate most AoA processes. Incorporating benefits into AoA is particularly difficult because of the intangible nature of many important benefits. The current work addresses the need to improve the use of benefits in AoA by building a system dynamics model of a military operation and integrating it with the Knowledge Value Added (KVA) methodology. The synergies may be able to significantly improve the accuracy of KVA estimates in the AoA process. A notional mobile weapon system was modeled and calibrated to reflect four weaponized Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV). Modeling a hypothetical AoA for upgrading one of the UAV indicated that there were potentially significant synergies that can increase the number of alternatives that could be analyzed, establishing common units of benefit estimates for an AoA, improved reliability of an AoA, and improved justification of AoA results. These can improve alternative selection, thereby improving final materiel effectiveness, thereby improving DoD acquisition processes.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited