Bayesian estimation of Cox model with non-nested random effects: an application to the ratification of ILO conventions by developing countries

We use a multivariate hazard model for the analysis of data on the timing of ratifications of different conventions. The model accounts for two random effects, one at the country level and the other at the convention level. We use a semi-parametric Bayesian approach, based on the partial likelihood. Our findings confirm the results of preceding studies that ratification behaviour varies substantially across members states and conventions. Furthermore, the results yield insights on the impact of unobserved heterogeneity on the ratification process. --gibbs sampling,partial likelihood,frailties,duration analysis

Robert Munford & Mercy Otis Warren : how gender, geography, and goals affected their playwrighting

This thesis analyzes the Revolutionary-era plays of Robert Munford and Mercy Otis Warren. Munford’s two comedies, The Candidates and The Patriots, are compared to Warren’s three earliest satires, The Adulateur, The Defeat, and The Group, in an effort to explain some of the differences between these two authors. The original printings of these plays from the Early American Imprints series, as well as more recent scholarship on Munford and Warren, are used to investigate the plays and lives of these playwrights. Munford’s and Warren’s backgrounds are explored to account for variations in their works. While the gender and geographical location of Munford and Warren played a major role in their plays, it was their individual goals and purposes in writing that more fully explain the distinctive nature of their plots, characters, and themes

Tap Musicians: Exploring the Use of Tap Dance as an Instrument Through the Lens of Notation

Known to very few, there is a written notation for tap dance: Kahnotation. Our research explores the integration of Kahnotation with musical notation. Tap dance is considered to be a performing art rather than a musical instrument. Our goal for this research is to develop a musical notation, derived from Kahnotation, that uses the bass clef and treble clef to incorporate tap as an instrument into a musical score. Multiple versions of tap notation exist; however, one universal form has yet to be codified within the performing arts industry. Synthesizing previous tap notations (that focus on movement patterns) and recalibrating these methods to be used for the codified musical notation. This research bridges the gap between what it means to be a dancer versus a musician. This notation requires that both dancers and musicians are able to understand and execute the written score solely based upon the new notation. Tap dancers are the foundation of this research which correlates to our main objective: rebranding the traditional verbiage of a dancer to a musician

Using unmanned aerial vehicles (‘drones’) to collect data from tagged fishers in the environment

Fisher (Pekania pennant) belongs to the weasel family. In October 2014, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service proposed to list the West Coast Distinct Population Segment of fisher as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. We wish to better define where fishers live within their habitats and use that information to improve conservation efforts. Previously, to track the behavior of wild fishers, researchers put tracker collars on the animals and relied on networks of fixed antennas on the ground in the environment to collect data. We are experimenting with using unmanned aerial vehicles (‘drones’) to collect data from tagged fishers in the environment. Using drones could offer advantages over antennas that require a dedicated power source and are placed in the field long-term

Changes in public health preparedness services provided to local health departments by regional offices in North Carolina: a comparison of two cross-sectional studies

Background: In 2011, seven decentralized Public Health Regional Surveillance Teams (PHRSTs) were restructured into four centralized Public Health Preparedness and Response (PHP&R) regional offices to realign preparedness priorities and essential services with appropriate infrastructure; field-based staff was reduced, saving approximately $1 million. The objective of this study was to understand the impact that restructuring had on services provided to local health departments (LHDs) throughout North Carolina. Methods: A survey to document services that regional offices provide to LHDs in North Carolina was administered by the North Carolina Preparedness and Emergency Response Research Center in 2013. The results were compared to a similar survey from 2009, which identified services provided by regional teams prior to restructuring. Results: Of 69 types of assistance, 14 (20%) were received by 50% or more LHDs in 2012. Compared to 2009, there was a significant decrease in the proportion of LHDs receiving 67% (n = 47) of services. The size of the region served by regional offices was shown to inversely impact the proportion of LHDs receiving services for 25% of services. There was a slight significant decline in perceived quality of the services provided by regional teams in 2012 as comparison to 2009. Conclusions: Following a system-wide review of preparedness in North Carolina, the state’s regional teams were reorganized to refine their focus to planning, exercises, and training. Some services, most notably under the functions of epidemiology and surveillance and public health event response, are now provided by other state offices. However, the study results indicate that several services that are still under the domain of the regional offices were received by fewer LHDs in 2012 than 2009. This decrease may be due to the larger number of counties now served by the four regional offices

A New Spin on Baseball

All baseball fans know what a curveball is physically, but what is curveball mathematically, and how does it differ from a fastball? The secret of a pitch lies in its spin. In this paper we shall define the spin of a baseball and investigate the effects of its magnitude and direction by employing data collected by MLB.com Gameday from the league\u27s best pitchers. We shall then employ this model to differentiate between the spin of a curveball and that of a fastball. Acknowledgements: We would like to thank our teacher Scott Mitter for all that he has done for us. From making waffles to teaching triple integrals, his input and encouragement have been invaluable. We would also like to thank the University of Dayton faculty for allowing us to participate in the UD Mathematics Day and to continue this paper