21 research outputs found
Non-Standard Errors
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants
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The Unintended Impact of Academic Research on Asset Returns: The Capital Asset Pricing Model Alpha
This paper explores a channel whereby asset-pricing anomalies can appear as investors alter portfolios according to findings in academic research. In particular, I find that assets with low realized capital asset pricing model (CAPM) alphas outperform those with high alphas, but this finding only appears after the CAPM's publication in the 1960s. I find evidence consistent with the widespread application of the CAPM generating incentives to tilt portfolios systematically away from low CAPM alpha assets, causing such assets to be undervalued
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Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors
This paper proposes two new estimators for determining the number of factors (r) in static approximate factor models. We exploit the well‐known fact that the r largest eigenvalues of the variance matrix of N response variables grow unboundedly as N increases, while the other eigenvalues remain bounded. The new estimators are obtained simply by maximizing the ratio of two adjacent eigenvalues. Our simulation results provide promising evidence for the two estimators