Arbitrage-free bond pricing with dynamic macroeconomic models

The authors examine the relationship between changes in short-term interest rates induced by monetary policy and the yields on long-maturity default-free bonds. The volatility of the long end of the term structure and its relationship with monetary policy are puzzling from the perspective of simple structural macroeconomic models. The authors explore whether richer models of risk premiums, specifically stochastic volatility models combined with Epstein-Zin recursive utility, can account for such patterns. They study the properties of the yield curve when inflation is an exogenous process and compare this with the yield curve when inflation is endogenous and determined through an interest rate (Taylor) rule. When inflation is exogenous, it is difficult to match the shape of the historical average yield curve. Capturing its upward slope is especially difficult because the nominal pricing kernel with exogenous inflation does not exhibit any negative autocorrelation-a necessary condition for an upward-sloping yield curve, as shown in Backus and Zin. Endogenizing inflation provides a substantially better fit of the historical yield curve because the Taylor rule provides additional flexibility in introducing negative autocorrelation into the nominal pricing kernel. Additionally, endogenous inflation provides for a flatter term structure of yield volatilities, which better fits historical bond data.Bonds - Prices ; Macroeconomics

Immigrants, Markets, and Rights: The United States As an Emerging Migration State

In the pages that follow, we will develop the concept of the migration state and examine U.S. immigration trends from the late nineteenth century up to 2003 in light of labor market dynamics and the business cycle. We then look at the emergence of the United States as a migration state and the rise of rights-based politics and rights-markets coalitions in the period from 1945 to 1990. These coalitions in the U.S. Congress are key to understanding immigration policy outputs and outcomes. The argument can be generalized to cover other liberal democracies in Western Europe, Canada, and Australia

Turning round the telescope. Centre-right parties and immigration and integration policy in Europe

This is an Author's Original Manuscript of 'Turning round the telescope. Centre-right parties and immigration and integration policy in Europe', whose final and definitive form, the Version of Record, has been published in the Journal of European Public Policy 15(3):315-330, 2008 [copyright Taylor & Francis], available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi.org/10.1080/13501760701847341

Medical Evidence of Human Rights Violations against Non-Arabic-Speaking Civilians in Darfur: A Cross-Sectional Study

Alexander Tsai and colleagues review medical records from the Amel Centre, Sudan, to assess consistency between recorded medical evidence and patient reports of human rights violations by the Government of Sudan and Janjaweed forces

Prevalence and demographics of anxiety disorders: a snapshot from a community health centre in Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The developing world is faced with a high burden of anxiety disorders. The exact prevalence of anxiety disorders in Pakistan is not known. There is a need to develop an evidence base to aid policy development on tackling anxiety and depressive disorders in the country. This is the first pilot study to address the prevalence of anxiety disorders and their association with sociodemographic factors in Pakistan.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was conducted among people visiting Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH), a tertiary care facility in Karachi, Pakistan. The point prevalence of anxiety amongst the sample population, which comprised of patients and their attendants, excluding all health care personnel, was assessed using the validated Urdu version of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). The questionnaire was administered to 423 people. Descriptive statistics were performed for mean scores and proportions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean anxiety score of the population was 5.7 ± 3.86. About 28.3% had borderline or pathological anxiety. The factors found to be independently predicted with anxiety were, female sex (odds ratio (OR) = 2.14, 95% CI 1.36–3.36, p = 0.01); physical illness (OR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.06–2.64, p = 0.026); and psychiatric illness (OR = 1.176, 95% CI 1.0–3.1, p = 0.048). In the final multivariate model, female sex (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2, 95% CI 1.28–3.22) and physical illness (AOR = 1.56, 95% CI 0.97–2.48) were found to be significant.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Further studies via nationally representative surveys need to be undertaken to fully grasp the scope of this emerging public health issue in Pakistan.</p

Family structure and posttraumatic stress reactions: a longitudinal study using multilevel analyses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is limited research on the relevance of family structures to the development and maintenance of posttraumatic stress following disasters. We longitudinally studied the effects of marital and parental statuses on posttraumatic stress reactions after the 2004 Southeast Asian tsunami and whether persons in the same households had more shared stress reactions than others.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>The study included a tourist population of 641 Norwegian adult citizens, many of them from families with children. We measured posttraumatic stress symptoms with the Impact of Event Scale-Revised at 6 months and 2 years post-disaster. Analyses included multilevel methods with mixed effects models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Results showed that neither marital nor parental status was significantly related to posttraumatic stress. At both assessments, adults living in the same household reported levels of posttraumatic stress that were more similar to one another than adults who were not living together. Between households, disaster experiences were closely related to the variance in posttraumatic stress symptom levels at both assessments. Within households, however, disaster experiences were less related to the variance in symptom level at 2 years than at 6 months.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results indicate that adult household members may influence one another's posttraumatic stress reactions as well as their interpretations of the disaster experiences over time. Our findings suggest that multilevel methods may provide important information about family processes after disasters.</p