Subgame perfect implementation with almost perfect information and the hold-up problem

The foundations of incomplete contracts have been questioned using or extending the subgame perfect implementation approach of Moore and Repullo (1988). We consider the robustness of subgame perfect implementation to the introduction of small amounts of asymmetric information. We show that Moore- Repullo mechanisms may not yield (even approximately) truthful revelation in pure or totally mixed strategies as the amount of asymmetric information goes to zero. Moreover, we argue that a wide class of extensive-form mechanisms are subject to this fragility

A model-based constraint on CO₂ fertilisation

We derive a constraint on the strength of CO2 fertilisation of the terrestrial biosphere through a “top-down” approach, calibrating Earth system model parameters constrained by the post-industrial increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration. We derive a probabilistic prediction for the globally averaged strength of CO2 fertilisation in nature, for the period 1850 to 2000 AD, implicitly net of other limiting factors such as nutrient availability. The approach yields an estimate that is independent of CO2 enrichment experiments. To achieve this, an essential requirement was the incorpo- ration of a land use change (LUC) scheme into the GENIE Earth system model. Using output from a 671-member ensemble of transient GENIE simulations, we build an emulator of the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration change since the preindustrial period. We use this emulator to sample the 28-dimensional input parameter space. A Bayesian calibration of the emulator output suggests that the increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) in response to a doubling of CO2 from preindustrial values is very likely (90 % confidence) to exceed 20 %, with a most likely value of 40–60 %. It is important to note that we do not represent all of the possible contributing mechanisms to the terrestrial sink. The missing processes are subsumed into our calibration of CO2 fertilisation, which therefore represents the combined effect of CO2 fertilisation and additional missing processes. If the missing processes are a net sink then our estimate represents an upper bound. We derive calibrated estimates of carbon fluxes that are consistent with existing estimates. The present-day land–atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated at −0.7 GTC yr−1 (likely, 66 % confidence, in the range 0.4 to −1.7 GTC yr−1). The present-day ocean–atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated to be −2.3 GTC yr−1 (likely in the range −1.8 to −2.7 GTC yr−1). We estimate cumulative net land emissions over the post-industrial period (land use change emissions net of the CO2 fertilisation and climate sinks) to be 66 GTC, likely to lie in the range 0 to 128 GTC

The Evolution of the Field and Cluster Morphology-Density Relation for Mass-Selected Samples of Galaxies

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and photometric/spectroscopic surveys in the GOODS-South field (the Chandra Deep Field-South, CDFS) are used to construct volume-limited, stellar mass-selected samples of galaxies at redshifts 0<z<1. The CDFS sample at 0.6<z<1.0 contains 207 galaxies complete down to M=4x10^10 Msol (for a ``diet'' Salpeter IMF), corresponding to a luminosity limit for red galaxies of M_B=-20.1. The SDSS sample at 0.020<z<0.045 contains 2003 galaxies down to the same mass limit, which corresponds to M_B=-19.3 for red galaxies. Morphologies are determined with an automated method, using the Sersic parameter n and a measure of the residual from the model fits, called ``bumpiness'', to distinguish different morphologies. These classifications are verified with visual classifications. In agreement with previous studies, 65-70% of the galaxies are located on the red sequence, both at z~0.03 and at z~0.8. Similarly, 65-70% of the galaxies have n>2.5. The fraction of E+S0 galaxies is 43+/-3%$ at z~0.03 and 48+/-7% at z~0.8, i.e., it has not changed significantly since z~0.8. When combined with recent results for cluster galaxies in the same redshift range, we find that the morphology-density relation for galaxies more massive than 0.5M* has remained constant since at least z~0.8. This implies that galaxies evolve in mass, morphology and density such that the morphology-density relation does not change. In particular, the decline of star formation activity and the accompanying increase in the stellar mass density of red galaxies since z~1 must happen without large changes in the early-type galaxy fraction in a given environment.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables. Updated to match journal version. Will appear in ApJ (vol. 670, p. 206

A Rest-frame Optical View on z~4 Galaxies I: Color and Age Distributions from Deep IRAC Photometry of the IUDF10 and GOODS Surveys

We present a study of rest-frame UV-to-optical color distributions for z~4 galaxies based on the combination of deep HST/ACS+WFC3/IR data with Spitzer/IRAC imaging. In particular, we use new, ultra-deep data from the IRAC Ultradeep Field program (IUDF10). Our sample contains a total of ~2600 galaxies selected as B-dropout Lyman Break Galaxies (LBGs) in the HUDF and one of its deep parallel fields, the HUDF09-2, as well as GOODS-North and South. This sample is used to investigate the UV continuum slopes beta and Balmer break colors (J_125-[4.5]) as a function of rest-frame optical luminosity. The [4.5] filter is chosen to avoid potential contamination by strong rest-frame optical emission lines. We find that galaxies at M_z<-21.5 (roughly corresponding to L*[z~4]) are significantly redder than their lower luminosity counterparts. The UV continuum slopes and the J_125-[4.5] colors are well correlated. The most simple explanation for this correlation is that the dust reddening at these redshifts is better described by an SMC-like extinction curve, rather than the typically assumed Calzetti reddening. After correcting for dust, we find that the galaxy population shows mean stellar population ages in the range 10^8.5 to 10^9 yr, with a dispersion of ~0.5 dex, and only weak trends as a function of luminosity. In contrast to some results from the literature, we find that only a small fraction of galaxies shows Balmer break colors which are consistent with extremely young ages, younger than 100 Myr. Under the assumption of smooth star-formation histories, this fraction is only 12-19% for galaxies at M_z<-19.75. Our results are consistent with a gradual build-up of stars and dust in galaxies at z>4, with only a small fraction of stars being formed in short, intense bursts of star-formation.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures; submitted to Ap

Downregulation of genes with a function in axon outgrowth and synapse formation in motor neurones of the VEGF(delta/delta) mouse model of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Background: Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is an endothelial cell mitogen that stimulates vasculogenesis. It has also been shown to act as a neurotrophic factor in vitro and in vivo. Deletion of the hypoxia response element of the promoter region of the gene encoding VEGF in mice causes a reduction in neural VEGF expression, and results in adult-onset motor neurone degeneration that resembles amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Investigating the molecular pathways to neurodegeneration in the VEGF(delta/delta) mouse model of ALS may improve understanding of the mechanisms of motor neurone death in the human disease. Results: Microarray analysis was used to determine the transcriptional profile of laser captured spinal motor neurones of transgenic and wild-type littermates at 3 time points of disease. 324 genes were significantly differentially expressed in motor neurones of presymptomatic VEGF(delta/delta) mice, 382 at disease onset, and 689 at late stage disease. Massive transcriptional downregulation occurred with disease progression, associated with downregulation of genes involved in RNA processing at late stage disease. VEGF(delta/delta) mice showed reduction in expression, from symptom onset, of the cholesterol synthesis pathway, and genes involved in nervous system development, including axonogenesis, synapse formation, growth factor signalling pathways, cell adhesion and microtubule-based processes. These changes may reflect a reduced capacity of VEGF(delta/delta) mice for maintenance and remodelling of neuronal processes in the face of demands of neural plasticity. The findings are supported by the demonstration that in primary motor neurone cultures from VEGF(delta/delta) mice, axon outgrowth is significantly reduced compared to wild-type littermates. Conclusions: Downregulation of these genes involved in axon outgrowth and synapse formation in adult mice suggests a hitherto unrecognized role of VEGF in the maintenance of neuronal circuitry. Dysregulation of VEGF may lead to neurodegeneration through synaptic regression and dying-back axonopathy

Rest-Frame Optical Emission Lines in z~3.5 Lyman Break selected Galaxies: The Ubiquity of Unusually High [OIII]/Hbeta Ratios at 2 Gyr

We present K-band spectra of rest-frame optical emission lines for 24 star-forming galaxies at z~3.2-3.7 using MOSFIRE on the Keck 1 telescope. Strong rest-frame optical [O III] and Hbeta emission lines were detected in 18 LBGs. The median flux ratio of [O III]5007 to Hbeta is 5.1+/-0.5, a factor of 5-10x higher than in local galaxies with similar stellar masses. The observed Hbeta luminosities are in good agreement with expectations from the estimated star-formation rates, and none of our sources are detected in deep X-ray stacks, ruling out significant contamination by active galactic nuclei. Combining our sample with a variety of LBGs from the literature, including 49 galaxies selected in a very similar manner, we find a high median ratio of [OIII]/Hbeta = 4.8+0.8-1.7. This high ratio seems to be an ubiquitous feature of z~3-4 LBGs, very different from typical local star-forming galaxies at similar stellar masses. The only comparable systems at z~0 are those with similarly high specific star-formation rates, though ~5x lower stellar masses. High specific star-formation rates either result in a much higher ionization parameter or other unusual conditions for the interstellar medium, which result in a much higher [OIII]/Hbeta line ratio. This implies a strong relation between a global property of a galaxy, the specific star-formation rate, and the local conditions of ISM in star-forming regions.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, 5 color, published in ApJ, updated to reflect published versio

The Dependence of Star Formation Rates on Stellar Mass and Environment at z~0.8

We examine the star formation rates (SFRs) of galaxies in a redshift slice encompassing the z=0.834 cluster RX J0152.7-1357. We used a low-dispersion prism in the Inamori Magellan Areal Camera and Spectrograph (IMACS) to identify galaxies with z<23.3 AB mag in diverse environments around the cluster out to projected distances of ~8 Mpc from the cluster center. We utilize a mass-limited sample (M>2x10^{10} M_sun) of 330 galaxies that were imaged by Spitzer MIPS at 24 micron to derive SFRs and study the dependence of specific SFR (SSFR) on stellar mass and environment. We find that the SFR and SSFR show a strong decrease with increasing local density, similar to the relation at z~0. Our result contrasts with other work at z~1 that find the SFR-density trend to reverse for luminosity-limited samples. These other results appear to be driven by star-formation in lower mass systems (M~10^{10} M_sun). Our results imply that the processes that shut down star-formation are present in groups and other dense regions in the field. Our data also suggest that the lower SFRs of galaxies in higher density environments may reflect a change in the ratio of star-forming to non-star-forming galaxies, rather than a change in SFRs. As a consequence, the SFRs of star-forming galaxies, in environments ranging from small groups to clusters, appear to be similar and largely unaffected by the local processes that truncate star-formation at z~0.8.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

The Possible z=0.83 Precursors of z=0 M* Early-type Cluster Galaxies

We examine the distribution of stellar masses of galaxies in MS 1054-03 and RX J0152.7-1357, two X-ray selected clusters of galaxies at z=0.83. Our stellar mass estimates, from spectral energy distribution fitting, reproduce the dynamical masses as measured from velocity dispersions and half-light radii with a scatter of 0.2 dex in the mass for early-type galaxies. When we restrict our sample of members to high stellar masses, > 1e11.1 Msun (M* in the Schechter mass function for cluster galaxies), we find that the fraction of early-type galaxies is 79 +/- 6% at z=0.83 and 87 +/- 6% at z=0.023 for the Coma cluster, consistent with no evolution. Previous work with luminosity-selected samples finds that the early-type fraction in rich clusters declines from =~80% at z=0 to =~60% at z=0.8. The observed evolution in the early-type fraction from luminosity-selected samples must predominately occur among sub-M* galaxies. As M* for field and group galaxies, especially late-types, is below M* for clusters galaxies, infall could explain most of the recent early-type fraction growth. Future surveys could determine the morphological distributions of lower mass systems which will confirm or refute this explanation.Comment: 5 pages in emulate ApJ format with three color figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters, v642n2. Updated to correct grammatical and typographic errors found by the journa