Multi-timescale Solar Cycles and the Possible Implications

Based on analysis of the annual averaged relative sunspot number (ASN) during 1700 -- 2009, 3 kinds of solar cycles are confirmed: the well-known 11-yr cycle (Schwabe cycle), 103-yr secular cycle (numbered as G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively since 1700); and 51.5-yr Cycle. From similarities, an extrapolation of forthcoming solar cycles is made, and found that the solar cycle 24 will be a relative long and weak Schwabe cycle, which may reach to its apex around 2012-2014 in the vale between G3 and G4. Additionally, most Schwabe cycles are asymmetric with rapidly rising-phases and slowly decay-phases. The comparisons between ASN and the annual flare numbers with different GOES classes (C-class, M-class, X-class, and super-flare, here super-flare is defined as $\geq$ X10.0) and the annal averaged radio flux at frequency of 2.84 GHz indicate that solar flares have a tendency: the more powerful of the flare, the later it takes place after the onset of the Schwabe cycle, and most powerful flares take place in the decay phase of Schwabe cycle. Some discussions on the origin of solar cycles are presented.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

A Comparison of Solar Cycle Variations in the Equatorial Rotation Rates of the Sun's Subsurface, Surface, Corona, and Sunspot Groups

Using the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot-group data for the period 1985-2010, the variations in the annual mean equatorial-rotation rates of the sunspot groups are determined and compared with the known variations in the solar equatorial-rotation rates determined from the following data: i) the plasma rotation rates at 0.94Rsun, 0.95Rsun,...,1.0Rsun measured by Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) during the period 1995-2010, ii) the data on the soft X-ray corona determined from Yohkoh/SXT full disk images for the years 1992-2001, iii) the data on small bright coronal structures (SBCS) which were traced in Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/EIT images during the period 1998-2006, and iv) the Mount Wilson Doppler-velocity measurements during the period 1986-2007. A large portion (up to approximate 30 deg latitude) of the mean differential-rotation profile of the sunspot groups lies between those of the internal differential-rotation rates at 0.94Rsun and 0.98Rsun.The variation in the yearly mean equatorial-rotation rate of the sunspot groups seems to be lagging that of the equatorial-rotation rate determined from the GONG measurements by one to two years.The amplitude of the latter is very small.The solar-cycle variation in the equatorial-rotation rate of the solar corona closely matches that determined from the sunspot-group data.The variation in the equatorial-rotation rate determined from the Mount Wilson Doppler-velocity data closely resembles the corresponding variation in the equatorial-rotation rate determined from the sunspot-group data that included the values of the abnormal angular motions (> 3 deg per day) of the sunspot groups. Implications of these results are pointed out.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures, accepted by Solar Physic

Large-scale development of cost-effective SNP marker assays for diversity assessment and genetic mapping in chickpea and comparative mapping in legumes

A set of 2486 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were compiled in chickpea using four approaches, namely (i) Solexa/Illumina sequencing (1409), (ii) amplicon sequencing of tentative orthologous genes (TOGs) (604), (iii) mining of expressed sequence tags (ESTs) (286) and (iv) sequencing of candidate genes (187). Conversion of these SNPs to the cost-effective and flexible throughput Competitive Allele Specific PCR (KASPar) assays generated successful assays for 2005 SNPs. These marker assays have been designated as Chickpea KASPar Assay Markers (CKAMs). Screening of 70 genotypes including 58 diverse chickpea accessions and 12 BC3F2 lines showed 1341 CKAMs as being polymorphic. Genetic analysis of these data clustered chickpea accessions based on geographical origin. Genotyping data generated for 671 CKAMs on the reference mapping population (Cicer arietinum ICC 4958 × Cicer reticulatum PI 489777) were compiled with 317 unpublished TOG-SNPs and 396 published markers for developing the genetic map. As a result, a second-generation genetic map comprising 1328 marker loci including novel 625 CKAMs, 314 TOG-SNPs and 389 published marker loci with an average inter-marker distance of 0.59 cM was constructed. Detailed analyses of 1064 mapped loci of this second-generation chickpea genetic map showed a higher degree of synteny with genome of Medicago truncatula, followed by Glycine max, Lotus japonicus and least with Vigna unguiculata. Development of these cost-effective CKAMs for SNP genotyping will be useful not only for genetics research and breeding applications in chickpea, but also for utilizing genome information from other sequenced or model legumes

Complementary resource use by tree species in a rain forest tree plantation

Mixed-species tree plantations, composed of high-value native rain forest timbers, are potential forestry systems for the subtropics and tropics that can provide ecological and production benefits. Choices of rain forest tree species for mixtures are generally based on the concept that assemblages of fast-growing and light-demanding species are less productive than assemblages of species with different shade tolerances. We examined the hypothesis that mixtures of two fast-growing species compete for resources, while mixtures of shade-tolerant and shade-intolerant species are complementary. Ecophysiological characteristics of young trees were determined and analyzed with a physiology-based canopy model (MAESTRA) to test species interactions. Contrary to predictions, there was evidence for complementary interactions between two fast-growing species with respect to nutrient uptake, nutrient use efficiency, and nutrient cycling. Fast-growing Elaeocarpus angustifolius had maximum demand for soil nutrients in summer, the most efficient internal recycling of N, and low P use efficiency at the leaf and whole-plant level and produced a large amount of nutrient-rich litter. In contrast, fast-growing Grevillea robusta had maximum demand for soil nutrients in spring and highest leaf nutrient use efficiency for N and P and produced low-nutrient litter. Thus, mixtures of fast-growing G. robusta and E. angustifolius or G. robusta and slow-growing, shade-tolerant Castanospermum australe may have similar or even greater productivity than monocultures, as light requirement is just one of several factors affecting performance of mixed-species plantations. We conclude that the knowledge gained here will be useful for designing large-scale experimental mixtures and commercial forestry systems in subtropical Australia and elsewhere

Validation of the use of Actigraph GT3X accelerometers to estimate energy expenditure in full time manual wheel chair users with Spinal Cord Injury

Study design: Cross-sectional validation study. Objectives: The goals of this study were to validate the use of accelerometers by means of multiple linear models (MLMs) to estimate the O2 consumption (VO2) in paraplegic persons and to determine the best placement for accelerometers on the human body. Setting: Non-hospitalized paraplegics’ community. Methods: Twenty participants (age=40.03 years, weight=75.8 kg and height=1.76 m) completed sedentary, propulsion and housework activities for 10 min each. A portable gas analyzer was used to record VO2. Additionally, four accelerometers (placed on the non-dominant chest, non-dominant waist and both wrists) were used to collect second-by-second acceleration signals. Minute-by-minute VO2 (ml kg−1 min−1) collected from minutes 4 to 7 was used as the dependent variable. Thirty-six features extracted from the acceleration signals were used as independent variables. These variables were, for each axis including the resultant vector, the percentiles 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th; the autocorrelation with lag of 1 s and three variables extracted from wavelet analysis. The independent variables that were determined to be statistically significant using the forward stepwise method were subsequently analyzed using MLMs. Results: The model obtained for the non-dominant wrist was the most accurate (VO2=4.0558−0.0318Y25+0.0107Y90+0.0051YND2−0.0061ZND2+0.0357VR50) with an r-value of 0.86 and a root mean square error of 2.23 ml kg−1 min−1. Conclusions: The use of MLMs is appropriate to estimate VO2 by accelerometer data in paraplegic persons. The model obtained to the non-dominant wrist accelerometer (best placement) data improves the previous models for this population.LM Garcia-Raffi and EA Sanchez-Perez gratefully acknowledge the support of the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad under project #MTM2012-36740-c02-02. X Garcia-Masso is a Vali + D researcher in training with support from the Generalitat Valenciana.Garcia Masso, X.; Serra Añó, P.; García Raffi, LM.; Sánchez Pérez, EA.; Lopez Pascual, J.; González, L. (2013). Validation of the use of Actigraph GT3X accelerometers to estimate energy expenditure in full time manual wheel chair users with Spinal Cord Injury. Spinal Cord. 51(12):898-903. https://doi.org/10.1038/sc.2013.85S8989035112Van den Berg-Emons RJ, Bussmann JB, Haisma JA, Sluis TA, van der Woude LH, Bergen MP et al. A prospective study on physical activity levels after spinal cord injury during inpatient rehabilitation and the year after discharge. Arch Phys Med Rehabil 2008; 89: 2094–2101.Jacobs PL, Nash MS . Exercise recommendations for individuals with spinal cord injury. Sports Med 2004; 34: 727–751.Erikssen G . Physical fitness and changes in mortality: the survival of the fittest. Sports Med 2001; 31: 571–576.Warburton DER, Nicol CW, Bredin SSD . 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The G-O Rule and Waldmeier Effect in the Variations of the Numbers of Large and Small Sunspot Groups

We have analysed the combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period of 1874-2011 and determined variations in the annual numbers (counts) of the small, large and big sunspot groups (these classifications are made on the basis of the maximum areas of the sunspot groups). We found that the amplitude of an even-numbered cycle of the number of large groups is smaller than that of its immediately following odd-numbered cycle. This is consistent with the well known Gnevyshev and Ohl rule or G-O rule of solar cycles, generally described by using the Zurich sunspot number (Rz). During cycles 12-21 the G-O rule holds good for the variation in the number of small groups also, but it is violated by cycle pair (22, 23) as in the case of Rz. This behaviour of the variations in the small groups is largely responsible for the anomalous behaviour of Rz in cycle pair (22, 23). It is also found that the amplitude of an odd-numbered cycle of the number of small groups is larger than that of its immediately following even-numbered cycle. This can be called as `reverse G-O rule'. In the case of the number of the big groups, both cycle pairs (12, 13) and (22, 23) violated the G-O rule. In many cycles the positions of the peaks of the small, large, and big groups are different and considerably differ with respect to the corresponding positions of the Rz peaks. In the case of cycle 23, the corresponding cycles of the small and large groups are largely symmetric/less asymmetric (Waldmeier effect is weak/absent) with their maxima taking place two years later than that of Rz. The corresponding cycle of the big groups is more asymmetric (strong Waldmeier effect) with its maximum epoch taking place at the same time as that of Rz.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, accepted by Solar Physic

Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North-South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle~24

Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874-2006, (Javaraiah, MNRAS, 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of -1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112 + or - 13 and 74 + or -10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that in case of (1), the north-south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103 + or -10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north-south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87 + or - 7 for the amplitude of cycle 24.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, Published in Solar Physics 252, 419-439 (2008

Nonlinear Prediction of Solar Cycle 24

Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and has even been correlated speculatively with changes in global weather patterns. This paper investigates trends in sunspot activity, using new techniques for decadal-scale prediction of the present solar cycle (cycle 24). First, Hurst exponent $H$ analysis is used to investigate the autocorrelation structure of the putative dynamics; then the Sugihara-May algorithm is used to predict the ascension time and the maximum intensity of the current sunspot cycle. Here we report $H$ = 0.86 for the complete sunspot number dataset (1700-2007) and $H$ = 0.88 for the reliable sunspot data set (1848-2007). Using the Sugihara-May algorithm analysis, we forecast that cycle 24 will reach its maximum in December 2012 at approximately 87 sunspots units.Comment: Accepted by Ap

Retinal vascular tortuosity in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder

\u3cp\u3eThe micro-vasculature of retina and brain share common morphological, physiological, and pathological properties. Retina being easily accessible, retinal vascular examination provides an indirect assessment of cerebral vasculature. Considering the high prevalence of vascular morbidity in SCZ and BD a few studies have examined retinal vascular caliber and have reported increased retinal venular caliber in schizophrenia (SCZ). Retinal vascular tortuosity could serve as a better structural measure than caliber as it is static and less susceptible to pulse period variations. However, to date, no study has examined retinal vascular tortuosity in SCZ and bipolar disorder (BD). Hence, we examined retinal vascular tortuosity in comparison with healthy volunteers (HV). We included 255 subjects (78 HV, 79 SCZ, and 86 BD) in the age range of 18 to 50 years. Trained personnel acquired images using a non-mydriatic fundus camera. To measure the average retinal arteriolar tortuosity index (RATI) and retinal venular tortuosity index (RVTI), we used a previously validated, semi-automatic algorithm. The results showed significant differences across the three groups in RATI but not in RVTI; both BD and SCZ had significantly increased RATI compared to HV. There was also a significant difference between SCZ and BD, with BD having higher RATI. If shown to be of predictive utility in future longitudinal studies, it has the potential to identify patients at risk of development of adverse vascular events. As retinal vascular imaging is non-invasive and inexpensive, it could serve as a proxy marker and window to cerebral vasculature.\u3c/p\u3