Study of transmission of tuberculosis by SIR model using Runge-Kutta method

This project is conducted to see the prediction of the transmission of the tuberculosis disease's trend with demography and without demography. It is carried out by the SIR model with the Runge-Kutta fourth-order technique using mathematical modelling to analyse Tuberculosis transmission. Furthermore, this project examines the Tuberculosis disease prediction performance of the two SIR models by comparing the data and also to predict the future trend of Tuberculosis transmission in Malaysia in the year 2021 by calculating its incidence rate for each 100 thousand people. We discovered that combining the SIR Model with demography improves the prediction of Tuberculosis disease spread. We also discovered that the higher the transmission rate, the lower the incidence rate per 100 thousand people, and the higher the incidence rate per 100 thousand people, the lower the recovery rate. As a result, it is acceptable to argue that these variables play a significant impact in determining epidemic growth rates

SIR integrated model based on Runge-Kutta for Polio vaccination analysis

Polio was one of the most lethal acute viral infectious diseases in the 20th century. A great deal of success has been achieved since the implementation of the polio vaccination strategy in 1988, and wild polio cases have decreased by more than 99%. However, in recent years, during the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination strategies have encountered difficulties and challenges. At this stage, we are faced with the question of whether vaccination strategies should be continued. To determine the effect of vaccination strategies on the spread of polio at this stage, this paper proposes to use the SIR model based on world data collected in 2021 to simulate the 30-days transmission process of polio with and without vaccination. In addition, the results of this model also provide us with a reference disease response plan. The simulation results show that the vaccinated polio transmission model performs better than the uninoculated polio transmission model in terms of average estimated infection case, reproduction number, and infection rate, etc. At this stage, polio will not become an endemic disease if it occurs in vaccination areas. Nevertheless, if the case occurs in an unvaccinated area, the disease may develop into an endemic disease, and we must take immediate action (increase social distance, isolation, etc.) to effectively control its spread