Contested State Formation? The Effect of Illicit Economies in the Margins of the State

Contested State Formation? The Effect of Illicit Economies in the Margins of the State The influence of illegal economies on local order is at the center of this thesis. This dissertation examines the conventional explanation of state weakness through illegal activities. By analyzing the interplay between local order in the margins of state influence and illegal economies, the present study aims to close the research gap of the widespread assumption that these economies lead to instability and violence. The work shows that illegal economies contribute to the development of stable local orders instead of destroying them. The dissertation focuses on regions with little or no state influence. The analysis follows a structured, focused comparison of two regions in Peru: VRAEM and Alto Huallaga. With a case study on the VRAEM region in Peru, the work analyses the current impact of the drug business on the local order. The Alto Huallaga region is the historical center of global cocaine production and is presented by the Peruvian government as a showcase for a successful transition of a drug economy. By comparing a current center for drug production with a former one, this thesis develops an understanding of the influence of illegal economies on local orders. During extensive field research, qualitative data was collected and 120 interviews, as well as 124 theory-based written surveys, were conducted. The analysis shows that the drug economy plays a significant role in the development of local order, especially in the areas of the economy, security and power structures. These local orders are stable in themselves but do not follow the normative understanding of the state. The study shows that illicit economies have a stabilizing effect instead of posing a direct threat to the state. The dissertation thus makes a research contribution to studies on state development which is independent of a Eurocentric understanding of norms and local order

New President, Old Problems: Corruption and Organised Crime Keep Peru in Crisis

Peru's new president, Martín Vizcarra, hardly signals a fresh start for the country. The crisis of the past two years, which brought Vizcarra into office in March this year, is the consequence of long-standing structural problems. Democratic institutions have been eroded and trust in political institutions has reached a new low. The legacy of Alberto Fujimori's authoritarian government (1990-2000) still weighs heavily on Peruvian politics. It includes a fragmented party system, weak institutions, and deeply engrained corruption. Fujimori's daughter Keiko is the head of the opposition party, Fuerza Popular, which controls Congress. Pervasive corruption is a central problem at all levels of Peruvian politics. Moreover, criminal structures, often related to drug trafficking, have increasingly infiltrated the political system. There is also a widespread perception of insecurity, even though the level of fatal violence is relatively low in regional comparison. Polls show low levels of support for democratic structures and a continuous decline in public confidence in the country's political institutions. The new president, Martín Vizcarra, is no exception. His approval rating fell from 52 per cent in May to 37 per cent in June. The Vizcarra government will find it difficult to pursue a coherent reform agenda. In June, only three months after taking office, its minister of economics and finance had to resign over mass protests against a tax increase on fuels. Increased accountability and the professionalisation of institutions will be essential to investigating and prosecuting corruption cases and to reducing the political influence of criminal structures. These are preconditions for rebuilding trust in the state. International commitments such as those made within the OECD framework are important guidelines. However, Peru's deep political and social divisions and its weak government make a quick fix unlikely

Asymptotic Change-Point Analysis of the Dependencies in Time Series

In recent papers, Wied and his coauthors have introduced change-point procedures to detect and estimate structural breaks in the correlation between time series. To prove the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic and stopping time as well as the change-point estimation rate, they use an extended functional Delta method and assume nearly constant expectations and variances of the time series. In this thesis, we allow asymptotically infinitely many structural breaks in the means and variances of the time series. For this setting, we present test statistics and stopping times which are used to determine whether or not the correlation between two time series is and stays constant, respectively. Additionally, we consider estimates for change-points in the correlations. The employed nonparametric statistics depend on the means and variances. These (nuisance) parameters are replaced by estimates in the course of this thesis. We avoid assuming a fixed form of these estimates but rather we use "blackbox" estimates, i.e. we derive results under assumptions that these estimates fulfill. These results are supplement with examples. This thesis is organized in seven sections. In Section 1, we motivate the issue and present the mathematical model. In Section 2, we consider a posteriori and sequential testing procedures, and investigate convergence rates for change-point estimation, always assuming that the means and the variances of the time series are known. In the following sections, the assumptions of known means and variances are relaxed. In Section 3, we present the assumptions for the mean and variance estimates that we will use for the mean in Section 4, for the variance in Section 5, and for both parameters in Section 6. Finally, in Section 7, a simulation study illustrates the finite sample behaviors of some testing procedures and estimates

The effect of illicit economies in the margins of the state – The VRAEM

The analysis focuses on the influence of illegal economies on local order and questions the conventional rationale of instability and violence through illegal activities. In an in depth-case study the analysis provides evidence that illicit economies can contribute to the development of local order rather than destroying it. The VRAEM is the current epicenter of drug production in Peru and therefore a well-fitting case for the analysis. The paper builds on qualitative data from participant observation, interviews and theory-based questionnaires collected in 2016 and 2017. The paper focuses on current center for drug production and on the social consequences, deepens our understanding of the influence of illegal economies on the local order. Understanding this influence is essential for designing policies for and understanding dynamics of state intervention. The drug economy played a significant role in the evolution of local order particularly in the areas of economy, security and rule. Even if this order does not resemble a normative state order, it is in itself stable and legitimate

Después del auge: Campos de poder en el valle del Monzón

Este artículo trata de explicar la influencia que tiene una economía ilegal en las estructuras de poder en una región al margen del Estado. Aún no tenemos un entendimiento claro sobre la influencia de economías ilegales en el orden local. En ese sentido, el concepto de campos de poder de Pierre Bourdieu ofrece herramientas analíticas que permiten dilucidar de una forma más precisa la relación entre poder y economía ilícita. El caso de estudio en el valle del Monzón ofrece de esta manera una oportunidad para investigar el efecto que genera la economía de la coca como factor predominante durante el periodo del boom. Asimismo, podemos analizar el efecto de la economía ilícita tras ser destruida por el Estado. Este panorama nos brinda un mejor entendimiento sobre las economías ilícitas y la intervención del Estado.This article tries to explain what influence an illicit economy has on power structures in the margins of the state. Still, academic understanding on the influence of illegal economies on local order is limited. The concept of fields of power by Pierre Bourdieu offers analytical tools which allows to track more precisely the relationship between illicit economies and power. The case study on the valley of Monzón allows to present the effect of the coca economy as predominant factor during a boom period. The destruction of the coca economy by the Peruvian state offers on the other hand the opportunity to analyze the loss of this determinant factor for the power structures in a society. The article shows the importance for an illicit economy for the local field of power. This gives a better understanding on the influence of illicit economies and the effect of state intervention

Kriminalität und Gewalt untergraben Lateinamerikas Demokratien

Lateinamerika gilt als eine der erfolgreichsten Regionen der dritten Demokratisierungswelle. Die demokratische Konsolidierung ist allerdings gefährdet: zum einen durch zunehmende organisierte Kriminalität und Gewalt, zum anderen durch den Einsatz des Militärs zu deren Bekämpfung. Hieran ändern auch die Festnahmen bekannter Drogenbosse in Mexiko im Juli und August dieses Jahres nichts. Analyse Die Demokratisierung bleibt in vielen Ländern Lateinamerikas aufgrund des hohen Gewaltniveaus fragil. Fortbestehende Sonderrechte des Militärs erlauben nur partielle Reformen des Sicherheitssektors. Die Konsolidierung demokratischer Rechtsstaatlichkeit und die Bearbeitung historischer Konflikte werden einem kurzsichtigen Verständnis von "Sicherheit" untergeordnet. Mit der Demokratisierung wurde in Lateinamerika Gewalt als Mittel der politischen Auseinandersetzung geächtet. Gleichzeitig nahm allerdings die nicht politisch motivierte Gewaltkriminalität zu. Am stärksten betroffen sind hier Mexiko, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador und Brasilien. Lateinamerikas Transformationsprozesse beruhen überwiegend auf Pakten, mit denen die staatlichen Sicherheitskräfte aus der Regierung verdrängt werden konnten, wobei ihnen allerdings ein hohes Maß an Autonomie verblieb. Die Gleichzeitigkeit von Demokratisierung und Gewaltanstieg stellte die betroffenen Gesellschaften und Regierungen vor große Herausforderungen. Notwendige Sicherheitssektorreformen verliefen schleppend oder wurden mit Verweis auf Probleme der öffentlichen Sicherheit gebremst. Die Betonung der öffentlichen Sicherheit führt außerdem dazu, dass historische Konflikte kaum aufgearbeitet und politische und soziale Proteste häufig kriminalisiert werden. Die Wechselwirkung zwischen blockierten Reformen und dem repressiven Umgang mit Gewalt untergräbt in einigen Ländern der Region die Demokratisierung

Los Estados en los márgenes: soberanía y gubernamentalidad en el principal valle cocalero peruano

Governance of areas with prevalence of illegal economies belongs to a broad academic discussion, even though studies on the characteristics of the State in those areas are scarce. Based on a qualitative case study, this paper examines the interactive consequences of state intervention in the Valley of the Apurímac, Ene and Mantaro Rivers (VRAEM). This region is the main coca growing area of Peru and operational center for terrorist remnants. For this reason, the region constitutes one of the main security concerns of the Peruvian government. Governing the VRAEM has always been a challenge and has not always been carried out according to government´s plans. This paper shows that due to the rationale of intervening in an area of illicit economies the VRAEM is governed by at least two types of State power: a sovereign power and a governmental power. The coexistence of these types of state powers allows exploring the multiplicities of governmental practices in the area, as well as the local resistance to both powers.Governance of areas with prevalence of illegal economies belongs to a broad academic discussion, even though studies on the characteristics of the State in those areas are scarce. Based on a qualitative case study, this paper examines the interactive consequences of state intervention in the Valley of the Apurímac, Ene and Mantaro Rivers (VRAEM). This region is the main coca growing area of Peru and operational center for terrorist remnants. For this reason, the region constitutes one of the main security concerns of the Peruvian government. Governing the VRAEM has always been a challenge and has not always been carried out according to government's plans. This paper shows that due to the rationale of intervening in an area of illicit economies the VRAEM is governed by at least two types of State power: a sovereign power and a governmental power. The coexistence of these types of state powers allows exploring the multiplicities of governmental practices in the area, as well as the local resistance to both powers

The potential role of DNA methylation as preventive treatment target of epileptogenesis

Pharmacological therapy of epilepsy has so far been limited to symptomatic treatment aimed at neuronal targets, with the result of an unchanged high proportion of patients lacking seizure control. The dissection of the intricate pathological mechanisms that transform normal brain matter to a focus for epileptic seizures—the process of epileptogenesis—could yield targets for novel treatment strategies preventing the development or progression of epilepsy. While many pathological features of epileptogenesis have been identified, obvious shortcomings in drug development are now believed to be based on the lack of knowledge of molecular upstream mechanisms, such as DNA methylation (DNAm), and as well as a failure to recognize glial cell involvement in epileptogenesis. This article highlights the potential role of DNAm and related gene expression (GE) as a treatment target in epileptogenesis

On Roots of Polynomials and Algebraically Closed Fields

SummaryIn this article we further extend the algebraic theory of polynomial rings in Mizar [1, 2, 3]. We deal with roots and multiple roots of polynomials and show that both the real numbers and finite domains are not algebraically closed [5, 7]. We also prove the identity theorem for polynomials and that the number of multiple roots is bounded by the polynomial’s degree [4, 6].Institute of Informatics, University of Gdańsk, PolandGrzegorz Bancerek, Czesław Byliński, Adam Grabowski, Artur Korniłowicz, Roman Matuszewski, Adam Naumowicz, Karol Pąk, and Josef Urban. Mizar: State-of-the-art and beyond. In Manfred Kerber, Jacques Carette, Cezary Kaliszyk, Florian Rabe, and Volker Sorge, editors, Intelligent Computer Mathematics, volume 9150 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 261–279. Springer International Publishing, 2015. ISBN 978-3-319-20614-1. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-20615-8_17.Adam Grabowski, Artur Korniłowicz, and Adam Naumowicz. Four decades of Mizar. Journal of Automated Reasoning, 55(3):191–198, 2015. doi:10.1007/s10817-015-9345-1.Adam Grabowski, Artur Korniłowicz, and Christoph Schwarzweller. On algebraic hierarchies in mathematical repository of Mizar. In M. Ganzha, L. Maciaszek, and M. Paprzycki, editors, Proceedings of the 2016 Federated Conference on Computer Science and Information Systems (FedCSIS), volume 8 of Annals of Computer Science and Information Systems, pages 363–371, 2016. doi:10.15439/2016F520.H. Heuser. Lehrbuch der Analysis. B.G. Teubner Stuttgart, 1990.Nathan Jacobson. Basic Algebra I. 2nd edition. Dover Publications Inc., 2009.Heinz Lüneburg. Gruppen, Ringe, Körper: Die grundlegenden Strukturen der Algebra. Oldenbourg Verlag, 1990.Knut Radbruch. Algebra I. Lecture Notes, University of Kaiserslautern, Germany, 1991.Christoph Schwarzweller and Agnieszka Rowińska-Schwarzweller. Schur’s theorem on the stability of networks. Formalized Mathematics, 14(4):135–142, 2006. doi:10.2478/v10037-006-0017-9.Christoph Schwarzweller, Artur Korniłowicz, and Agnieszka Rowińska-Schwarzweller. Some algebraic properties of polynomial rings. Formalized Mathematics, 24(3):227–237, 2016. doi:10.1515/forma-2016-0019.25318519

The Giant Pacific Oyster (Crassostrea gigas) as a modern analog for fossil ostreoids: Isotopic (Ca, O, C) and elemental (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Mn/Ca) proxies

Modern analogs are an essential part of palaeoclimate studies, because they provide the basis for the understanding of geochemical signatures of fossils. Ostreoids are common in many sedimentary sequences and because of their fast growth, high temporal resolution sampling of past seasonal variability is possible. Here, two shell structures of modern Giant Pacific Oysters (Crassostrea gigas), the chalky substance and foliate layers, have been sampled for trace element distributions (Mg, Sr, Mn) and stable isotope variability (C, O, Ca). Oxygen isotopes exhibit a clear seasonal signature. Mean carbon isotope values of different oysters agree within 0.1‰, but ontogenic variability is complicated by shell growth patterns and potential small vital effects. The calcium isotope ratios are found to be constant throughout ontogeny within analytical precision at a value of δ44/40Ca = 0.68 ± 0.16‰ (2 sd) SRM–915a which is consistent with other bivalve species. Calcium isotope ratios in oyster shell material might thus be a possible proxy for palaeo seawater calcium isotope ratios. Element/Ca ratios are significantly higher in the chalky substance than in the foliate layers and especially high Sr/Ca and Mn/Ca ratios are observed for the first growth season of the oysters. Mg/Ca ratios in the chalky substance show a negative correlation with δ18O values, compatible with a temperature dependence, whereas this correlation is absent in the foliate layers. Seasonal changes of Sr/Ca are controlled by metabolic processes, whereas for Mn/Ca an additional environmental control is evident