Distributed Synthesis in Continuous Time

We introduce a formalism modelling communication of distributed agents strictly in continuous-time. Within this framework, we study the problem of synthesising local strategies for individual agents such that a specified set of goal states is reached, or reached with at least a given probability. The flow of time is modelled explicitly based on continuous-time randomness, with two natural implications: First, the non-determinism stemming from interleaving disappears. Second, when we restrict to a subclass of non-urgent models, the quantitative value problem for two players can be solved in EXPTIME. Indeed, the explicit continuous time enables players to communicate their states by delaying synchronisation (which is unrestricted for non-urgent models). In general, the problems are undecidable already for two players in the quantitative case and three players in the qualitative case. The qualitative undecidability is shown by a reduction to decentralized POMDPs for which we provide the strongest (and rather surprising) undecidability result so far

Landslide dams in the Central Andes of Argentina: showing the need of revising the established landslide dam classification

The Andean cordillera of Argentina is more than 3500 km long and 50 to 550 km wide and characterized by steep relief contrasts throughout. Except for a few valleys, most of this region is scarcely populated. Hence geologic mapping was mainly carried out on a scale (1:250000), which is often too small to map out various Quaternary units and therefore to highlight relations of landslide deposits with lakes or lake deposits. However, in the last years various studies have been carried out, concentrating on large landslides and their relations with valley impoundments (GONZÁLEZ DIAZ & MON, 1996; HERMANNS & STRECKER, 1999; TRAUTH & STRECKER, 1999; GONZÁLEZ DÍAZ et alii, 2000; HERMANNS et alii, 2000; TRAUTH et alii, 2000; FAUQUE et alii, 2000; FAUQUÉ & TCHILINGUIRIAN, 2002; TRAUTH et alii, 2003; HERMANNS et alii, 2003; HERMANNS et alii, 2005; FAUQUE et alii, 2005; PENNA et alii, 2005; GONZÁLEZ DÍAZ et alii, 2005). Before that, most attention was given to the catastrophic rock avalanche dam failure in the Barrancas valley causing the 1914 Río Colorado flood (GROEBER, 1916; GONZÁLEZ DÍAZ et alii, 2001; SCHUSTER et alii, 2002; HERMANNS et alii, 2004a). In this paper we will focus on two regions: one in the NW Argentine (24° - 27.5° S) and one in northern Patagonia (36° – 38° S). In both regions the authors have carried out systematic studies related to landslides with volumes in excess of 106 m3. These landslides formed at least 16 and 48 landslide dams in the two regions, respectively (Figure 1). In the following, due to the briefness of this paper, only peculiarities of the various cases will be described which will help to better understand large landslide dams in other regions as well. For the complete data set of both study areas we refer to the comprehensive paper, which will be published within the related NATO Science Series book. Likewise, we omit a setting description of the regions and refer here to the papers cited above.Fil: Hermanns, R. L.. Canadian Geological Survey; CanadáFil: Folguera Telichevsky, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber". Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber"; ArgentinaFil: Gonzalez Diaz, E. F.. Secretaría de Industria y Minería. Servicio Geológico Minero Argentino; ArgentinaFil: Fauque, L.. Secretaría de Industria y Minería. Servicio Geológico Minero Argentino; Argentin

Efficient CSL Model Checking Using Stratification

For continuous-time Markov chains, the model-checking problem with respect to continuous-time stochastic logic (CSL) has been introduced and shown to be decidable by Aziz, Sanwal, Singhal and Brayton in 1996. Their proof can be turned into an approximation algorithm with worse than exponential complexity. In 2000, Baier, Haverkort, Hermanns and Katoen presented an efficient polynomial-time approximation algorithm for the sublogic in which only binary until is allowed. In this paper, we propose such an efficient polynomial-time approximation algorithm for full CSL. The key to our method is the notion of stratified CTMCs with respect to the CSL property to be checked. On a stratified CTMC, the probability to satisfy a CSL path formula can be approximated by a transient analysis in polynomial time (using uniformization). We present a measure-preserving, linear-time and -space transformation of any CTMC into an equivalent, stratified one. This makes the present work the centerpiece of a broadly applicable full CSL model checker. Recently, the decision algorithm by Aziz et al. was shown to work only for stratified CTMCs. As an additional contribution, our measure-preserving transformation can be used to ensure the decidability for general CTMCs.Comment: 18 pages, preprint for LMCS. An extended abstract appeared in ICALP 201

Changes in Ground Deformation Prior To and Following A Large Urbanlandslide in La Paz, Bolivia Revealed By Advanced InSAR

We characterize and compare creep preceding and following the complex 2011 Pampahasi landslide (∼40 Mm3±50 %) in the city of La Paz, Bolivia, using spaceborne radar interferometry (InSAR) that combines displacement records from both distributed and point scatterers. The failure remobilized deposits of an ancient complex landslide in weakly cemented, predominantly fine-grained sediments and affected ∼1.5 km2 of suburban development. During the 30 months preceding failure, about half of the toe area was creeping at 3–8 cm a−1 and localized parts of the scarp area showed displacements of up to 14 cm a−1. Changes in deformation in the 10 months following the landslide demonstrate an increase in slope activity and indicate that stress redistribution resulting from the discrete failure decreased stability of parts of the slope. During that period, most of the landslide toe and areas near the head scarp accelerated, respectively, to 4–14 and 14 cm a−1. The extent of deformation increased to cover most, or probably all, of the 2011 landslide as well as adjacent parts of the slope and plateau above. The InSAR-measured displacement patterns, supplemented by field observations and optical satellite images, reveal complex slope activity; kinematically complex, steady-state creep along pre-existing sliding surfaces accelerated in response to heavy rainfall, after which slightly faster and expanded steady creeping was re-established. This case study demonstrates that high-quality ground-surface motion fields derived using spaceborne InSAR can help to characterize creep mechanisms, quantify spatial and temporal patterns of slope activity, and identify isolated small-scale instabilities; such details are especially useful where knowledge of landslide extent and activity is limited. Characterizing slope activity before, during, and after the 2011 Pampahasi landslide is particularly important for understanding landslide hazard in La Paz, half of which is underlain by similar large paleolandslides

Oral administration of the KATP channel opener diazoxide ameliorates disease progression in a murine model of multiple sclerosis

Background Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is an acquired inflammatory demyelinating disorder of the central nervous system (CNS) and is the leading cause of nontraumatic disability among young adults. Activated microglial cells are important effectors of demyelination and neurodegeneration, by secreting cytokines and others neurotoxic agents. Previous studies have demonstrated that microglia expresses ATP-sensitive potassium (KATP) channels and its pharmacological activation can provide neuroprotective and anti-inflammatory effects. In this study, we have examined the effect of oral administration of KATP channel opener diazoxide on induced experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a mouse model of MS. Methods Anti-inflammatory effects of diazoxide were studied on lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and interferon gamma (IFNy)-activated microglial cells. EAE was induced in C57BL/6J mice by immunization with myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein peptide (MOG35-55). Mice were orally treated daily with diazoxide or vehicle for 15 days from the day of EAE symptom onset. Treatment starting at the same time as immunization was also assayed. Clinical signs of EAE were monitored and histological studies were performed to analyze tissue damage, demyelination, glial reactivity, axonal loss, neuronal preservation and lymphocyte infiltration. Results Diazoxide inhibited in vitro nitric oxide (NO), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-¿) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) production and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) expression by activated microglia without affecting cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) expression and phagocytosis. Oral treatment of mice with diazoxide ameliorated EAE clinical signs but did not prevent disease. Histological analysis demonstrated that diazoxide elicited a significant reduction in myelin and axonal loss accompanied by a decrease in glial activation and neuronal damage. Diazoxide did not affect the number of infiltrating lymphocytes positive for CD3 and CD20 in the spinal cord. Conclusion Taken together, these results demonstrate novel actions of diazoxide as an anti-inflammatory agent, which might contribute to its beneficial effects on EAE through neuroprotection. Treatment with this widely used and well-tolerated drug may be a useful therapeutic intervention in ameliorating MS disease

Assume-Guarantee Abstraction Refinement for Probabilistic Systems

We describe an automated technique for assume-guarantee style checking of strong simulation between a system and a specification, both expressed as non-deterministic Labeled Probabilistic Transition Systems (LPTSes). We first characterize counterexamples to strong simulation as "stochastic" trees and show that simpler structures are insufficient. Then, we use these trees in an abstraction refinement algorithm that computes the assumptions for assume-guarantee reasoning as conservative LPTS abstractions of some of the system components. The abstractions are automatically refined based on tree counterexamples obtained from failed simulation checks with the remaining components. We have implemented the algorithms for counterexample generation and assume-guarantee abstraction refinement and report encouraging results.Comment: 23 pages, conference paper with full proof

Probabilistic Bisimulation: Naturally on Distributions

In contrast to the usual understanding of probabilistic systems as stochastic processes, recently these systems have also been regarded as transformers of probabilities. In this paper, we give a natural definition of strong bisimulation for probabilistic systems corresponding to this view that treats probability distributions as first-class citizens. Our definition applies in the same way to discrete systems as well as to systems with uncountable state and action spaces. Several examples demonstrate that our definition refines the understanding of behavioural equivalences of probabilistic systems. In particular, it solves a long-standing open problem concerning the representation of memoryless continuous time by memory-full continuous time. Finally, we give algorithms for computing this bisimulation not only for finite but also for classes of uncountably infinite systems

Programmable models of growth and mutation of cancer-cell populations

In this paper we propose a systematic approach to construct mathematical models describing populations of cancer-cells at different stages of disease development. The methodology we propose is based on stochastic Concurrent Constraint Programming, a flexible stochastic modelling language. The methodology is tested on (and partially motivated by) the study of prostate cancer. In particular, we prove how our method is suitable to systematically reconstruct different mathematical models of prostate cancer growth - together with interactions with different kinds of hormone therapy - at different levels of refinement.Comment: In Proceedings CompMod 2011, arXiv:1109.104

Distribution-based bisimulation for labelled Markov processes

In this paper we propose a (sub)distribution-based bisimulation for labelled Markov processes and compare it with earlier definitions of state and event bisimulation, which both only compare states. In contrast to those state-based bisimulations, our distribution bisimulation is weaker, but corresponds more closely to linear properties. We construct a logic and a metric to describe our distribution bisimulation and discuss linearity, continuity and compositional properties.Comment: Accepted by FORMATS 201

Explicit Model Checking of Very Large MDP using Partitioning and Secondary Storage

The applicability of model checking is hindered by the state space explosion problem in combination with limited amounts of main memory. To extend its reach, the large available capacities of secondary storage such as hard disks can be exploited. Due to the specific performance characteristics of secondary storage technologies, specialised algorithms are required. In this paper, we present a technique to use secondary storage for probabilistic model checking of Markov decision processes. It combines state space exploration based on partitioning with a block-iterative variant of value iteration over the same partitions for the analysis of probabilistic reachability and expected-reward properties. A sparse matrix-like representation is used to store partitions on secondary storage in a compact format. All file accesses are sequential, and compression can be used without affecting runtime. The technique has been implemented within the Modest Toolset. We evaluate its performance on several benchmark models of up to 3.5 billion states. In the analysis of time-bounded properties on real-time models, our method neutralises the state space explosion induced by the time bound in its entirety.Comment: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24953-7_1