The Influence on Climate Change of Differing Scenarios for Future Development Analyzed Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity, and global mean temperature increases computed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) using scenarios for 21st century emissions developed by three different groups: intergovernmental (represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), government (represented by the U.S. government Climate Change Science Program) and industry (represented by Royal Dutch Shell plc). In all these scenarios the climate system undergoes substantial changes. By 2100, the CO2 concentration ranges from 470 to 1020 ppm compared to a 2000 level of 365 ppm, the CO2-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases ranges from 550 to 1780 ppm in comparison to a 2000 level of 415 ppm, sea level rises by 24 to 56 cm relative to 2000 due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity changes from a current pH of around 8 to a range from 7.63 to 7.91. The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0 degrees C relative to 2000.The IGSM model used here is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Industry and Foundation Sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Gambaran kualitas hidup remaja SMA dengan berat badan berlebih di Manado pada Pandemi COVID-19

Background: Adolescence is the period of transitions between childhood and adulthood, in this period there are many changes that cover various aspects such as physical, hormonal, psychological, and even social development. The prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents aged 5-19 has risen from just 4% in 1975 to over 18% in 2016. Overweight and obese have a high risk of non-communicable diseases that can affect someone’s quality of life. The main purpose of this research is to find out the outline of overweight adolescents’ quality of life. Methods: This was a descriptive cross-sectional study on 44 adolescents who are overweight from high schools in Manado city. Results: The results of this study indicate that students who are overweight have a moderate quality of life in the physical health psychological, social, and environmental domains.Conclusion: The majority of respondents in this study had a moderate quality of life.Keywords: Adolescent, overweight, quality of lif

Gambaran Status Gizi Anak Balita Di Ppa (Pusat Pengembangan Anak) Id-127 Dan Csp (Child Survival Programme) Cs 07 Kelurahan Ranomut Manado

: Nutritional status is body condition that affected by food consumption and nutrient substance using. It is distinguished among bad nutrition, less nutrition and good nutrition status and it is measured by body mass index based on age as the one anthropometer index. Objective: The objectives of this research is to know a description of toddler\u27s nutirional status at PPA ID – 127 (Chldren Development Center) and CSP CS-07 (Child Survival Programme) in Ranomut Subdistrict, Manado City. The research methodology is using descriptive analysis with doing survey . The research population is toddler 0 – 59 month with 80 toddlers as sample and the respondent is the toddler\u27s mother. Result: Based on anthropometer measurement with body mass indicator based on age, the results are 11 toddlers (13,5 %) with less nutrition status, 69 toddlers (86,5 %) with good nutrition status while toddle with bad nutrition status is nothing

Kualitas hidup dengan kualitas tidur remaja SMA Katolik Rex Mundi Manado di masa pandemi COVID-19

Background: Adolescent is a period of growth that is most unique since there are very large changes covering physical, psychological and social development. The growth and development of adolescents are influenced by the quality of life with physical activity. However, the COVID-19 epidemic has severely limited the physical activity of adolescents, which has an impact on their quality of life and growth.Objective: The general aim of this study was to discover the quality of adolescent life and physical activity during the pandemic and the specific objective was to find out an overview of the quality of life, physical dimensions, psychological dimensions, social dimensions, environmental dimensions in physical activity.Method: This study used descriptive research with a cross-sectional design and it also used the cluster random sampling technique and simple random sampling by distributing WHOQOL-BREF questionnaires and the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) through google form.Results: Based on the 91 samples, it indicated that the physical health dimension of students with light physical activity, most of the good quality of life was 37.4, the psychological dimension with moderate physical activity, most of the good quality of life was 29.7, the social dimension with the most moderate student activity was 31.9.Conclusion: Students of SMP Negeri 2 Manado had a good and moderate quality of life, while their physical activity was moderate in all dimensions.Keywords: quality of life, physical activity, adolescents, COVID-19.

Gambaran kandungan antibiotik pada sedimen kawasan pesisir teluk Manado

Introduction: Antibiotics are drugs that are often used to treat bacterial infections. Excessive use of antibiotics can lead to pollution if the residual waste from its use is not properly degraded. The residual waste that is not properly degraded will cause pollution to the environment where the antibiotic waste is released. Sometimes several sources of antibiotic usage do not have a good waste treatment system, some of which are hospitals. Hospitals must have a wastewater treatment system that is called Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP). A good WWTP function is to degrade all kinds of waste in the hospital, so that if it is released into the environment it will not cause harmful effects such as pollution. Sometimes there is some waste that does not go through a good waste treatment system, so it has the potential to cause pollution to the environment. Antibiotics that are not properly degraded can cause pollution to the area where the waste is disposed of, one of which is sediment in the coastal area. Aim: To determine the overview of antibiotic content in the sediments of the coastal area of Manado Bay. Method: This research is a quantitative-descriptive study. Result: It was found that there was antibiotic content in the sediment which was marked by bacteria in the sediment of the area that were resistant to several types of antibiotics.Conclusion: Based on the result, there is antibiotic content in the sediments of the coastal area of Manado Bay.Keywords: antibiotics, sediment, Manado Bay

Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

Patient survival after renal transplantation: IV. Impact of post-transplant diabetes

Patient survival after renal transplantation: IV. Impact of post-transplant diabetes.BackgroundThe development of de novo diabetes mellitus is a serious complication of kidney transplantation. This study examined the cardiovascular risk profile of patients with post-transplant diabetes (PTDM) and assessed the impact of PTDM on patient survival.MethodsThis analysis included 1811 adult, renal allograft recipients, transplanted in a single institution between 1983 and 1998. Patient survival was analyzed by univariable and multivariable Cox regression considering PTDM as a time dependent variable.ResultsAfter a follow-up period of 8.3 ± 4.5 years, 293 patients (20%) developed PTDM, 14% lost their graft, and 20% died. Compared to patients without DM (NoDM, N = 1186) patients with PTDM were significantly older (40 ± 14 vs. 48 ± 12 years, P < 0.001), heavier (76 ± 23 vs. 86 ± 25 kg, P < 0.001), and included more African Americans (18 vs. 28%, P = 0.001). In addition, the incidence of PTDM was significantly higher in patients who were transplanted after 1995 than prior to that year. In contrast, there were no significant differences between PTDM and patients who had DM before the transplant (DM; N = 332). Compared to NoDM, patients with PTDM had significantly higher total serum cholesterol and triglycerides (TG), higher systolic blood pressure and higher pulse pressure throughout the post-transplant period. Of interest, all of these abnormalities preceded the development of PTDM. Hypertriglyceridemia was particularly pronounced in PTDM and elevated TG levels correlated with the subsequent development of PTDM, independent of other risk factors (P = 0.001 by multivariate Cox). Compared to NoDM (16% mortality) a significantly higher percent of DM (31%, P < 0.001) and PTDM (22%, P = 0.005) patients died. By Cox regression, PTDM correlated with reduced patient survival (hazard ratio = 1.80, CI 1.35 to 2.41, P = 0.001), and that relationship was independent of other correlates of reduced survival that included: increasing age; transplant year; reduced serum albumin; and male sex.Conclusions: PTDM is associated with an unfavorable cardiovascular risk profile that precedes the development of hyperglycemia. PTDM is an independent predictor of reduced survival in renal allograft recipients

Gambaran Pengetahuan Masyarakat tentang Pencegahan Penyakit Malaria di Desa Tatelu Kecamatan Dimembe

Background: Malaria is a contagious disease which caused by Plasmodium sp. that attack red blood cells. Indonesiahad five species of the malaria parasites. Method: The study is a descriptive study with survey method. This studytook place in Tatelu Village and was done during November to December 2012 with respondents of 120 families.Sampling is by using the simple random sampling. Result: There was 75% for the respondents who know about malaria.The respondents who did not know that Plasmodiums cause malaria was 70,8% and the respondents who didnot know about the symptomps of malaria was 65,8%. Up to 73,4% respondents did not know anything how to protectthemselves from malaria. Conclusion: The villagers of Tatelu did not have a sufficient knowledge about malariaeradication. This was most likely caused by the lower study level and low socioeconomy level. However, the villagerrealised the dangerous of this disease, so they wanted that malaria will not be a threat for their health.Keywords: Spesies, Malaria, parasite, Plasmodiu