A review through the lens of causal inference

Funding Information: Competing interests AS: Consulting/speaking fees from MSD, UCB, Novartis. SR: Research grant from MSD; Consultancy/speaking fees from AbbVie, Eli Lilly, MSD, Novartis, UCB, Sanofi. DvdH: Consulting fees AbbVie, Amgen, Astellas, AstraZeneca, Bayer, BMS, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Cyxone, Daiichi, Eisai, Eli-Lilly, Galapagos, Gilead, Glaxo-Smith-Kline, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sanofi, Takeda, UCB Pharma Director of Imaging Rheumatology bv. RL: Consulting fees from AbbVie, BMS, Celgene, Eli-Lilly, Galapagos, Gilead, Glaxo-Smith-Kline, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, UCB and is Director of Rheumatology Consultancy bv Publisher Copyright: ©Axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) is a chronic rheumatic disease characterised by inflammation predominantly involving the spine and the sacroiliac joints. In some patients, axial inflammation leads to irreversible structural damage that in the spine is usually quantified by the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score (mSASSS). Available therapeutic options include biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs), which have been proven effective in suppressing inflammation in several randomised controlled trials (RCT), the gold standard for evaluating causal treatment effects. RCTs are, however, unfeasible for testing structural effects in axSpA mainly due to the low sensitivity to change of the mSASSS. The available literature therefore mainly includes observational research, which poses serious challenges to the determination of causality. Here, we review the studies testing the effect of bDMARDs on spinal radiographic progression, making use of the principles of causal inference. By exploring the assumptions of causality under counterfactual reasoning (exchangeability, positivity and consistency), we distinguish between studies that likely have reported confounded treatment effects and studies that, on the basis of their design, have more likely reported causal treatment effects. We conclude that bDMARDs might, indirectly, interfere with spinal radiographic progression in axSpA by their effect on inflammation. Innovations in imaging are expected, so that placebo-controlled trials can in the future become a reality. In the meantime, causal inference analysis using observational data may contribute to a better understanding of whether disease modification is possible in axSpA.publishersversionpublishe

Data from the DESIR cohort

Funding: g Devenir des Spondyloarthropathies Indifférenciées Récentes (DESIR) is financially supported by an unrestricted grant from Pfizer. AS is supported by a doctoral grant from 'Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia' (SFRH/ BD/108246/2015). The DESIR study is conducted as a Programme Hospitalier de Recherche Clinique with Assistance Publique Hopitaux de Paris as the sponsor. The DESIR study is also under the umbrella of the French Society of Rheumatology, which financially supports the cohort. An unrestricted grant from Pfizer as been allocated for the first 10 years.Objective To study changes on MRI of the spine and sacroiliac joint (SIJ) in early axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) over time. Methods In the Devenir des Spondyloarthropathies Indifférenciées Récentes cohort, MRI-spine and MRI-SIJ at baseline and 2 and 5 years were scored by central readers for bone marrow oedema (BME), fatty lesions, erosions, sclerosis, ankylosis and spinal bone spurs. The average mean number of lesions was reported or the agreement of ≥2 out of 3 readers for binary outcomes. Net progression was calculated by subtracting the patients that a € improved' from those that a € worsened' divided by the total number of patients. Results Over 5 years, in 155 patients with axSpA (mean age 33.5 (SD 8.9) years, symptom duration 1.4 (0.8) years, 63% human leucocyte antigen+, 14% modified New York+), BME on MRI-SIJ decreased by a mean Spondyloarthritis Research Consortium of Canada score of 1.4 (SD 6.5) (p=0.009). The largest BME decrease was observed in patients using biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs at 5 years. Spinal BME increased by 0.3 (4.6) (p=0.41). Fatty lesions and/or erosions on MRI-SIJ increased by a mean of 1.0 (SD 2.6) (p<0.001). Spinal fatty lesions and/or erosions increased by 0.2 (SD 0.5) (p<0.001). Compared with baseline, at 5 years, 7.3% less patients had BME on MRI-SIJ according to the Assessment of Spondyloarthritis International Society definition, while 6.6% more patients had ≥5 fatty lesions and/or erosions. At 5 years, 0.7% less patients had ≥5 spinal BME lesions and 0.7% less patients had ≥5 spinal fatty lesions. Conclusion Over 5 years, BME on MRI-SIJ decreased and spinal BME remained similar, but numerically, little progression of structural lesions on MRI of the SIJ and spine was seen.publishersversionpublishe

Do fatty lesions explain the effect of inflammation on new syndesmophytes in patients with radiographic axial spondyloarthritis? Results from the SIAS cohort and ASSERT trial

OBJECTIVES: To determine how much of the effect of vertebral corner inflammation on development of syndesmophytes is explained by vertebral corner fat deposition. METHODS: Patients with radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (r-axSpA) from the SIAS (Sensitive Imaging in Ankylosing Spondylitis) cohort and ASSERT (Ankylosing Spondylitis Study for the Evaluation of Recombinant Infliximab Therapy) trial were assessed at T0, T1 (SIAS: 1 year; ASSERT: 24 weeks) and T2 (2 years). Syndesmophytes assessed in each vertebral corner by whole spine low-dose CT (SIAS) or spinal radiographs (ASSERT) at T0 and T2 were considered present if seen by two of two readers. Inflammation (T0) and fat deposition (T0 and T1) on MRI were present if seen by ≥2 of 3 readers (SIAS) or 2 of 2 readers (ASSERT). Vertebral corners showing fat deposition or a syndesmophyte at baseline were ignored. Mediation analysis was applied to determine what proportion of the total effect of inflammation on syndesmophyte formation could be explained via the path of intermediate fat deposition. RESULTS: Forty-nine SIAS patients (with 2667 vertebral corners) and 168 ASSERT patients (with 2918 vertebral corners) were analysed. The presence of inflammation at T0 increased the probability of a new syndesmophyte in the same vertebral corner at T2 by 9.3%. Of this total effect, 0.2% (2% (0.2 of 9.3) of the total effect) went via intermediate new fat deposition. In ASSERT, the total effect was 7.3%, of which 0.8% (10% of the total effect) went via new fat deposition. CONCLUSION: In r-axSpA, vertebral corner inflammation may lead to syndesmophyte formation but in a minority of cases via visible fat deposition

Treating rheumatoid arthritis to target: recommendations of an international task force

Background Aiming at therapeutic targets has reduced the risk of organ failure in many diseases such as diabetes or hypertension. Such targets have not been defined for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Objective To develop recommendations for achieving optimal therapeutic outcomes in RA. Methods A task force of rheumatologists and a patient developed a set of recommendations on the basis of evidence derived from a systematic literature review and expert opinion; these were subsequently discussed, amended and voted upon by >60 experts from various regions of the world in a Delphi-like procedure. Levels of evidence, strength of recommendations and levels of agreement were derived. Results The treat-to-target activity resulted in 10 recommendations. The treatment aim was defined as remission with low disease activity being an alternative goal in patients with long-standing disease. Regular follow-up (every 1-3 months during active disease) with appropriate therapeutic adaptation to reach the desired state within 3 to a maximum of 6 months was recommended. Follow-up examinations ought to employ composite measures of disease activity which include joint counts. Additional items provide further details for particular aspects of the disease. Levels of agreement were very high for many of these recommendations (>= 9/10). Conclusion The 10 recommendations are supposed to inform patients, rheumatologists and other stakeholders about strategies to reach optimal outcomes of RA based on evidence and expert opinion

Evidence for treating rheumatoid arthritis to target: results of a systematic literature search

Objectives To summarise existing evidence on a target oriented approach for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treatment. Methods We conducted a systematic literature search including all clinical trials testing clinical, functional, or structural values of a targeted treatment approach. Our search covered Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases until December 2008 and also conference abstracts (2007, 2008). Results The primary search yielded 5881 citations; after the selection process, 76 papers underwent detailed review. Of these, only seven strategic clinical trials were extracted: four studies randomised patients to routine or targeted treatment, two compared two different randomised targets and one compared targeted treatment to a historical control group. Five trials dealt with early RA patients. All identified studies showed significantly better clinical outcomes of targeted approaches than routine approaches. Disability was reported in two studies with no difference between groups. Four studies compared radiographic outcomes, two showing significant benefit of the targeted approach. Conclusion Only few studies employed randomised controlled settings to test the value of treatment to a specific target. However, they provided unanimous evidence for benefits of targeted approaches. Nevertheless, more data on radiographic and functional outcomes and on patients with established RA are needed

A systematic literature review informing the consensus statement on efficacy and safety of pharmacological treatment with interleukin-6 pathway inhibition with biological DMARDs in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases

Objectives: Informing an international task force updating the consensus statement on efficacy and safety of biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) selectively targeting interleukin-6 (IL-6) pathway in the context of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. Methods: A systematic literature research of all publications on IL-6 axis inhibition with bDMARDs published between January 2012 and December 2020 was performed using MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane CENTRAL databases. Efficacy and safety outcomes were assessed in clinical trials including their long-term extensions and observational studies. Meeting abstracts from ACR, EULAR conferences and results on clinicaltrials.gov were taken into consideration. Results: 187 articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Evidence for positive effect of IL-6 inhibition was available in various inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, giant cell arteritis, Takayasu arteritis, adult-onset Still’s disease, cytokine release syndrome due to chimeric antigen receptor T cell therapy and systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease. Newcomers like satralizumab and anti-IL-6 ligand antibody siltuximab have expanded therapeutic approaches for Castleman’s disease and neuromyelitis optica, respectively. IL-6 inhibition did not provide therapeutic benefits in psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis and certain connective tissue diseases. In COVID-19, tocilizumab (TCZ) has proven to be therapeutic in advanced disease. Safety outcomes did not differ from other bDMARDs, except higher risks of diverticulitis and lower gastrointestinal perforations. Inconsistent results were observed in several studies investigating the risk for infections when comparing TCZ to TNF-inhibitors. Conclusion: IL-6 inhibition is effective for treatment of several inflammatory diseases with a safety profile that is widely comparable to other bDMARDs

Results of the worldwide, cross-sectional ASAS-PerSpA study

Objectives: To characterise peripheral musculoskeletal involvement in patients with spondyloarthritis (SpA) including psoriatic arthritis (PsA), across the world. Methods: Cross-sectional study with 24 participating countries. Patients with a diagnosis of axial SpA (axSpA), peripheral SpA (pSpA) or PsA according to their rheumatologist were included. The investigators were asked which diagnosis out of a list of six (axSpA, PsA, pSpA, inflammatory bowel disease-associated SpA, reactive arthritis or juvenile SpA (Juv-SpA)) fitted the patient best. Peripheral manifestations (ie, peripheral joint disease, enthesitis, dactylitis and root joint disease), their localisation and treatments were evaluated. Results: A total of 4465 patients were included (61% men, mean age 44.5 years) from four geographic areas: Latin America (n=538), Europe plus North America (n=1677), Asia (n=975) and the Middle East plus North Africa (n=1275). Of those, 78% had ever suffered from at least one peripheral musculoskeletal manifestation; 57% had peripheral joint disease, 44% had enthesitis and 15% had dactylitis. Latin American had far more often peripheral joint disease (80%) than patients from other areas. Patients with PsA had predominantly upper limb and small joint involvement (52%). Hip and shoulder involvement was found in 34% of patients. The prevalence of enthesitis ranged between 41% in patients with axSpA and 65% in patients with Juv-SpA. Dactylitis was most frequent among patients with PsA (37%). Conclusion: These results suggest that all peripheral features can be found in all subtypes of SpA, and that differences are quantitative rather than qualitative. In a high proportion of patients, axial and peripheral manifestations coincided. These findings reconfirm SpA clinical subtypes are descendants of the same underlying disease, called SpA.publishersversionpublishe

A cluster analysis in the worldwide ASAS-PerSpA study

Objective To identify clusters of peripheral involvement according to the specific location of peripheral manifestations (ie, arthritis, enthesitis and dactylitis) in patients with spondyloarthritis (SpA) including psoriatic arthritis (PsA), and to evaluate whether these clusters correspond with the clinical diagnosis of a rheumatologist. Methods Cross-sectional study with 24 participating countries. Consecutive patients diagnosed by their rheumatologist as PsA, axial SpA or peripheral SpA were enrolled. Four different cluster analyses were conducted: one using information on the specific location from all the peripheral manifestations, and a cluster analysis for each peripheral manifestation, separately. Multiple correspondence analyses and k-means clustering methods were used. Distribution of peripheral manifestations and clinical characteristics were compared across the different clusters. Results The different cluster analyses performed in the 4465 patients clearly distinguished a predominantly axial phenotype (cluster 1) and a predominantly peripheral phenotype (cluster 2). In the predominantly axial phenotype, hip involvement and lower limb large joint arthritis, heel enthesitis and lack of dactylitis were more prevalent. In the predominantly peripheral phenotype, different subgroups were distinguished based on the type and location of peripheral involvement: a predominantly involvement of upper versus lower limbs joints, a predominantly axial enthesitis versus peripheral enthesitis, and predominantly finger versus toe involvement in dactylitis. A poor agreement between the clusters and the rheumatologist € s diagnosis as well as with the classification criteria was found. Conclusion These results suggest the presence of two main phenotypes (predominantly axial and predominantly peripheral) based on the presence and location of the peripheral manifestations.publishersversionpublishe

Biological DMARDs and disease modification in axial spondyloarthritis: A review through the lens of causal inference

Axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) is a chronic rheumatic disease characterised by inflammation predominantly involving the spine and the sacroiliac joints. In some patients, axial inflammation leads to irreversible structural damage that in the spine is usually quantified by the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score (mSASSS). Available therapeutic options include biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs), which have been proven effective in suppressing inflammation in several randomised controlled trials (RCT), the gold standard for evaluating causal treatment effects. RCTs are, however, unfeasible for testing structural effects in axSpA mainly due to the low sensitivity to change of the mSASSS. The available literature therefore mainly includes observational research, which poses serious challenges to the determination of causality. Here, we review the studies testing the effect of bDMARDs on spinal radiographic progression, making use of the principles of causal inference. By exploring the assumptions of causality under counterfactual reasoning (exchangeability, positivity and consistency), we distinguish between studies that likely have reported confounded treatment effects and studies that, on the basis of their design, have more likely reported causal treatment effects. We conclude that bDMARDs might, indirectly, interfere with spinal radiographic progression in axSpA by their effect on inflammation. Innovations in imaging are expected, so that placebo-controlled trials can in the future become a reality. In the meantime, causal inference analysis using observational data may contribute to a better understanding of whether disease modification is possible in axSpA