AutoPV: Automated photovoltaic forecasts with limited information using an ensemble of pre-trained models

Accurate PhotoVoltaic (PV) power generation forecasting is vital for the efficient operation of Smart Grids. The automated design of such accurate forecasting models for individual PV plants includes two challenges: First, information about the PV mounting configuration (i.e. inclination and azimuth angles) is often missing. Second, for new PV plants, the amount of historical data available to train a forecasting model is limited (cold-start problem). We address these two challenges by proposing a new method for day-ahead PV power generation forecasts called AutoPV. AutoPV is a weighted ensemble of forecasting models that represent different PV mounting configurations. This representation is achieved by pre-training each forecasting model on a separate PV plant and by scaling the model's output with the peak power rating of the corresponding PV plant. To tackle the cold-start problem, we initially weight each forecasting model in the ensemble equally. To tackle the problem of missing information about the PV mounting configuration, we use new data that become available during operation to adapt the ensemble weights to minimize the forecasting error. AutoPV is advantageous as the unknown PV mounting configuration is implicitly reflected in the ensemble weights, and only the PV plant's peak power rating is required to re-scale the ensemble's output. AutoPV also allows to represent PV plants with panels distributed on different roofs with varying alignments, as these mounting configurations can be reflected proportionally in the weighting. Additionally, the required computing memory is decoupled when scaling AutoPV to hundreds of PV plants, which is beneficial in Smart Grids with limited computing capabilities. For a real-world data set with 11 PV plants, the accuracy of AutoPV is comparable to a model trained on two years of data and outperforms an incrementally trained model

Transformer Training Strategies for Forecasting Multiple Load Time Series

In the smart grid of the future, accurate load forecasts on the level of individual clients can help to balance supply and demand locally and to prevent grid outages. While the number of monitored clients will increase with the ongoing smart meter rollout, the amount of data per client will always be limited. We evaluate whether a Transformer load forecasting model benefits from a transfer learning strategy, where a global univariate model is trained on the load time series from multiple clients. In experiments with two datasets containing load time series from several hundred clients, we find that the global training strategy is superior to the multivariate and local training strategies used in related work. On average, the global training strategy results in 21.8% and 12.8% lower forecasting errors than the two other strategies, measured across forecasting horizons from one day to one month into the future. A comparison to linear models, multi-layer perceptrons and LSTMs shows that Transformers are effective for load forecasting when they are trained with the global training strategy

Non-Sequential Machine Learning Pipelines with pyWATTS

pyWATTS is an open-source Python-based workflow automation tool for time series analysis. pyWATTS simplifies the evaluation process and the design of repetitive machine learning experiments with time series by providing a powerful pipeline solution including preprocessing and analysis modules. Unlike existing sequential pipeline solutions, pyWATTS enables more complex and non-sequential pipelines. Such non-sequential pipelines are beneficial, for example, in forecasting electrical load time series, detecting anomalies in time series, or generating synthetic time series. This talk presents the basic ideas of pyWATTS, the current features, and existing use cases. It also gives an outlook on the future developments of pyWATTS and the cooperation with sktime

High-speed quantum cascade detector characterized with a mid-infrared femtosecond oscillator

Quantum cascade detectors (QCD) are photovoltaic mid-infrared detectors based on intersubband transitions. Owing to the sub-picosecond carrier transport between subbands and the absence of a bias voltage, QCDs are ideally suited for high-speed and room temperature operation. Here, we demonstrate the design, fabrication, and characterization of 4.3 µm wavelength QCDs optimized for large electrical bandwidth. The detector signal is extracted via a tapered coplanar waveguide (CPW), which was impedance-matched to 50 Ω. Using femtosecond pulses generated by a mid-infrared optical parametric oscillator (OPO), we show that the impulse response of the fully packaged QCDs has a full-width at half-maximum of only 13.4 ps corresponding to a 3-dB bandwidth of more than 20 GHz. Considerable detection capability beyond the 3-dB bandwidth is reported up to at least 50 GHz, which allows us to measure more than 600 harmonics of the OPO repetition frequency reaching 38 dB signal-to-noise ratio without the need of electronic amplification.ISSN:1094-408