Mapping lava flows from Nyamuragira volcano (1967-2011) with satellite data and automated classification methods

The volume, location and extent of historical lava flows are important when assessing volcanic hazards, as well as the productivity or longevity of a volcanic system. We use a Landsat/Hyperion/ALI dataset and automated classification methods to map lava flows at Nyamuragira volcano (1967-2011) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The humid tropical climate ofNyamuragira is advantageous because its lava flows are emplaced onto heavily forested flanks, resulting in strong contrast between lava and vegetation, which contributes to efficient flow mapping. With increasing age, there is an increase in Landsat band-4 reflectance, suggesting lava flow revegetation with time. This results in a distinct spectral contrast to delineate overlapping flows emplaced ~ 5 years apart. Areal extents of the flows are combined with published lava flow thicknesses to derive volumes. The Landsat/Hyperion/ALI dataset is advantageous for mapping future flows quickly and inexpensively, particularly for volcano observatories where resources are limited

Thy-1 interaction with Fas in lipid rafts regulates fibroblast apoptosis and lung injury resolution.

Thy-1-negative lung fibroblasts are resistant to apoptosis. The mechanisms governing this process and its relevance to fibrotic remodeling remain poorly understood. By using either sorted or transfected lung fibroblasts, we found that Thy-1 expression is associated with downregulation of anti-apoptotic molecules Bcl-2 and Bcl-xL, as well as increased levels of cleaved caspase-9. Addition of rhFasL and staurosporine, well-known apoptosis inducers, caused significantly increased cleaved caspase-3, -8, and PARP in Thy-1-transfected cells. Furthermore, rhFasL induced Fas translocation into lipid rafts and its colocalization with Thy-1. These in vitro results indicate that Thy-1, in a manner dependent upon its glycophosphatidylinositol anchor and lipid raft localization, regulates apoptosis in lung fibroblasts via Fas-, Bcl-, and caspase-dependent pathways. In vivo, Thy-1 deficient (Thy1-/-) mice displayed persistence of myofibroblasts in the resolution phase of bleomycin-induced fibrosis, associated with accumulation of collagen and failure of lung fibrosis resolution. Apoptosis of myofibroblasts is decreased in Thy1-/- mice in the resolution phase. Collectively, these findings provide new evidence regarding the role and mechanisms of Thy-1 in initiating myofibroblast apoptosis that heralds the termination of the reparative response to bleomycin-induced lung injury. Understanding the mechanisms regulating fibroblast survival/apoptosis should lead to novel therapeutic interventions for lung fibrosis

Behavior Change After 20 Months of a Radio Campaign Addressing Key Lifesaving Family Behaviors for Child Survival: Midline Results From a Cluster Randomized Trial in Rural Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: In Burkina Faso, a comprehensive 35-month radio campaign addressed key, multiple family behaviors for improving under-5 child survival and was evaluated using a repeated cross-sectional, cluster randomized design. The primary outcome of the trial was postneonatal under-5 child mortality. This paper reports on behavior change achieved at midline. METHOD: Fourteen community radio stations in 14 geographic areas were selected based on their high listenership. Seven areas were randomly allocated to receive the intervention while the other 7 areas served as controls. The campaign was launched in March 2012. Cross-sectional surveys of about 5,000 mothers of under-5 children, living in villages close to the radio stations, were conducted at baseline (from December 2011 to February 2012) and at midline (in November 2013), after 20 months of campaigning. Statistical analyses were based on cluster-level summaries using a difference-in-difference (DiD) approach and adjusted for imbalances between arms at baseline. In addition, routine health facility data were analyzed for evidence of changes in health facility utilization. RESULTS: At midline, 75% of women in the intervention arm reported recognizing radio spots from the campaign. There was some evidence of the campaign having positive effects on care seeking for diarrhea (adjusted DiD, 17.5 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5 to 32.5; P= .03), antibiotic treatment for fast/difficult breathing (adjusted DiD, 29.6 percentage points; 95% CI, 3.5 to 55.7; P= .03), and saving money during pregnancy (adjusted DiD, 12.8 percentage points; 95% CI, 1.4 to 24.2; P= .03). For other target behaviors, there was little or no evidence of an impact of the campaign after adjustment for baseline imbalances and confounding factors. There was weak evidence of a positive correlation between the intensity of broadcasting of messages and reported changes in target behaviors. Routine health facility data were consistent with a greater increase in the intervention arm than in the control arm in all-cause under-5 consultations (33% versus 17%, respectively), but the difference was not statistically significant (P= .40). CONCLUSION: The radio campaign reached a high proportion of the primary target population, but the evidence for an impact on key child survival-related behaviors at midline was mixed

Nonlinear porous medium flow with fractional potential pressure

We study a porous medium equation, with nonlocal diffusion effects given by an inverse fractional Laplacian operator. We pose the problem in n-dimensional space for all t>0 with bounded and compactly supported initial data, and prove existence of a weak and bounded solution that propagates with finite speed, a property that is nor shared by other fractional diffusion models.Comment: 32 pages, Late

The Anthropocene within the Geological Time Scale: a response to fundamental questions

The Anthropocene as a prospective new, ongoing series/epoch must be defensible against all relevant concerns. We address the seven, still-relevant challenges posed to the Anthropocene Working Group by the Chair, International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS), in 2014. (1) Concept or reality? The Anthropocene possesses a substantial, sharply distinctive stratigraphic record recognisable through many proxy signals from the mid-20th century onwards; (2) GSSP or GSSA? The Anthropocene can be defined by a GSSP and correlated globally; (3) Past or future? The Anthropocene unquestionably represents geological time, its transformations having already moved the Earth System beyond Holocene norms towards an irreversible future trajectory; (4) Utility? The Anthropocene’s distinctive material content allows useful delineation on geological sections/maps; (5) Indelibility? Many of the Anthropocene’s transformative effects cannot be subsequently effaced or overprinted; (6) Fit within the Geological Time Scale (GTS)? The Anthropocene represents a unique, youngest, interval in Earth history and strata of profound significance; (7) What is its value? The chronostratigraphic Anthropocene has conceptual usefulness even informally, but would then lack the clarity, stability and recognition that formalization provides. Without its formalization, the GTS would no longer accurately reflect Earth history, diminishing the relevance of geological science for analysis of ongoing planetary change

Epochs, events and episodes: Marking the geological impact of humans

Event stratigraphy is used to help characterise the Anthropocene as a chronostratigraphic concept, based on analogous deep-time events, for which we provide a novel categorization. Events in stratigraphy are distinct from extensive, time-transgressive ‘episodes’ – such as the global, highly diachronous record of anthropogenic change, termed here an Anthropogenic Modification Episode (AME). Nested within the AME are many geologically correlatable events, the most notable being those of the Great Acceleration Event Array (GAEA). This isochronous array of anthropogenic signals represents brief, unique events evident in geological deposits, e.g.: onset of the radionuclide ‘bomb-spike’; appearance of novel organic chemicals and fuel ash particles; marked changes in patterns of sedimentary deposition, heavy metal contents and carbon/nitrogen isotopic ratios; and ecosystem changes leaving a global fossil record; all around the mid-20th century. The GAEA reflects a fundamental transition of the Earth System to a new state in which many parameters now lie beyond the range of Holocene variability. Globally near-instantaneous events can provide robust primary guides for chronostratigraphic boundaries. Given the intensity, magnitude, planetary significance and global isochroneity of the GAEA, it provides a suitable level for recognition of the base of the Anthropocene as a series/epoch

Effect of a mass radio campaign on family behaviours and child survival in Burkina Faso: a repeated cross-sectional, cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Media campaigns can potentially reach a large audience at relatively low cost but, to our knowledge, no randomised controlled trials have assessed their effect on a health outcome in a low-income country. We aimed to assess the effect of a radio campaign addressing family behaviours on all-cause post-neonatal under-5 child mortality in rural Burkina Faso. METHODS: In this repeated cross-sectional, cluster randomised trial, clusters (distinct geographical areas in rural Burkina Faso with at least 40 000 inhabitants) were selected by Development Media International based on their high radio listenership (>60% of women listening to the radio in the past week) and minimum distances between radio stations to exclude population-level contamination. Clusters were randomly allocated to receive the intervention (a comprehensive radio campaign) or control group (no radio media campaign). Household surveys were performed at baseline (from December, 2011, to February, 2012), midline (in November, 2013, and after 20 months of campaigning), and endline (from November, 2014, to March, 2015, after 32 months of campaigning). Primary analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis, based on cluster-level summaries and adjusted for imbalances between groups at baseline. The primary outcome was all-cause post-neonatal under-5 child mortality. The trial was designed to detect a 20% reduction in the primary outcome with a power of 80%. Routine data from health facilities were also analysed for evidence of changes in use and these data had high statistical power. The indicators measured were new antenatal care attendances, facility deliveries, and under-5 consultations. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrial.gov, number NCT01517230. FINDINGS: The intervention ran from March, 2012, to January, 2015. 14 clusters were selected and randomly assigned to the intervention group (n=7) or the control group (n=7). The average number of villages included per cluster was 34 in the control group and 29 in the intervention group. 2269 (82%) of 2784 women in the intervention group reported recognising the campaign's radio spots at endline. Post-neonatal under-5 child mortality decreased from 93·3 to 58·5 per 1000 livebirths in the control group and from 125·1 to 85·1 per 1000 livebirths in the intervention group. There was no evidence of an intervention effect (risk ratio 1·00, 95% CI 0·82-1·22; p>0·999). In the first year of the intervention, under-5 consultations increased from 68 681 to 83 022 in the control group and from 79 852 to 111 758 in the intervention group. The intervention effect using interrupted time-series analysis was 35% (95% CI 20-51; p<0·0001). New antenatal care attendances decreased from 13 129 to 12 997 in the control group and increased from 19 658 to 20 202 in the intervention group in the first year (intervention effect 6%, 95% CI 2-10; p=0·004). Deliveries in health facilities decreased from 10 598 to 10 533 in the control group and increased from 12 155 to 12 902 in the intervention group in the first year (intervention effect 7%, 95% CI 2-11; p=0·004). INTERPRETATION: A comprehensive radio campaign had no detectable effect on child mortality. Substantial decreases in child mortality were observed in both groups over the intervention period, reducing our ability to detect an effect. This, nevertheless, represents the first randomised controlled trial to show that mass media alone can change health-seeking behaviours. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust and Planet Wheeler Foundation

The Anthropocene is a prospective epoch/series, not a geological event

The Anthropocene defined as an epoch/series within the Geological Time Scale, and with an isochronous inception in the mid-20th century, would both utilize the rich array of stratigraphic signals associated with the Great Acceleration and align with Earth System science analysis from where the term Anthropocene originated. It would be stratigraphically robust and reflect the reality that our planet has far exceeded the range of natural variability for the Holocene Epoch/Series which it would terminate. An alternative, recently advanced, time-transgressive ‘geological event’ definition would decouple the Anthropocene from its stratigraphic characterisation and association with a major planetary perturbation. We find this proposed anthropogenic ‘event’ to be primarily an interdisciplinary concept in which historical, cultural and social processes and their global environmental impacts are all flexibly interpreted within a multi-scalar framework. It is very different from a stratigraphic-methods-based Anthropocene epoch/series designation, but as an anthropogenic phenomenon, if separately defined and differently named, might be usefully complementary to it

Coccidioidomycosis seasonality in California: a longitudinal surveillance study of the climate determinants and spatiotemporal variability of seasonal dynamics, 2000–2021

BackgroundCoccidioidomycosis, an emerging fungal disease in the western USA, exhibits seasonal patterns that are poorly understood, including periods of strong cyclicity, aseasonal intervals, and variation in seasonal timing that have been minimally characterized, and unexplained as to their causal factors. Coccidioidomycosis incidence has increased markedly in recent years, and our limited understanding of intra- and inter-annual seasonality has hindered the identification of important drivers of disease transmission, including climate conditions. In this study, we aim to characterize coccidioidomycosis seasonality in endemic regions of California and to estimate the relationship between drought conditions and coccidioidomycosis seasonal periodicity and timing.MethodsWe analysed data on all reported incident cases of coccidioidomycosis in California from 2000 to 2021 to characterize seasonal patterns in incidence, and conducted wavelet analyses to assess the dominant periodicity, power, and timing of incidence for 17 counties with consistently high incidence rates. We assessed associations between seasonality parameters and measures of drought in California using a distributed lag nonlinear modelling framework.FindingsAll counties exhibited annual cyclicity in incidence (i.e., a dominant wavelet periodicity of 12 months), but there was considerable heterogeneity in seasonal strength and timing across regions and years. On average, 12-month periodicity was most pronounced in the Southern San Joaquin Valley and Central Coast. Further, the annual seasonal cycles in the Southern San Joaquin Valley and the Southern Inland regions occurred earlier than those in coastal and northern counties, yet the timing of annual cycles became more aligned among counties by the end of the study period. Drought conditions were associated with a strong attenuation of the annual seasonal cycle, and seasonal peaks became more pronounced in the 1-2 years after a drought ended.InterpretationWe conclude that drought conditions do not increase the risk of coccidioidomycosis onset uniformly across the year, but instead promote increased risk concentrated within a specific calendar period (September to December). The findings have important implications for public health preparedness, and for how future shifts in seasonal climate patterns and extreme events may impact spatial and temporal coccidioidomycosis risk.FundingNational Institutes of Health